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You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article. Well, we decided a couple of years ago that we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we share weekly on the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers. To kick off the chalk talk this week, we're rolling with the favorites in two Power 4 matchups.
Let's dive into our Week 5 college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Boston College vs. SMU and Texas State vs. San Diego State on Saturday, Oct. 3. And be sure to download the Action Network app for additional picks and analysis.
Week 5 College Football Picks
- SMU -21 vs. Boston College
- Texas State -8 vs. San Diego State
Boston College vs SMU Pick
| Boston College Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+21 -105 | 55.5 -105o / -115u | +1050 |
| SMU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-21 -115 | 55.5 -105o / -115u | -1600 |
By Stuckey
I’m taking SMU -21. I think the Mustangs absolutely bury the Eagles.
BC’s power rating is propped up by some soft spots on the schedule, playing against Rutgers’ backup quarterback and then slogging through Virginia Tech in a typhoon where nobody could move the ball.
The Eagles defense is just plain bad, and they won’t be able to generate pressure on SMU. All they really have offensively is quarterback Mason McKenzie, and you can game-plan that away by spying him.
SMU, meanwhile, has already seen the likes of Florida State's Ashton Daniels and Louisville's Lincoln Kienholz. The Mustangs have faced dual-threat quarterbacks and operate on the other end of the spectrum compared to BC.
The Mustangs were a little bit unlucky in some earlier games as well. They should’ve beaten Florida State by a lot, had some misfortune against Louisville, and outgained Missouri State by about 350 yards but hurt themselves with fumbles, missed field goals and turnovers on downs.
BC can’t rush the passer, its offense is one-dimensional, and SMU’s talent and overall play make this a mismatch. I like Mustangs to cover this line convincingly.
Pick: SMU -21
Texas State vs San Diego State Pick
| Texas State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | -310 |
| San Diego State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 57.5 -110o / -110u | +250 |
I’m taking Texas State.
San Diego State can’t stop the run. Torrance Burgess Jr. is carving up defenses with one of the highest elusiveness grades in college football, per PFF, and Texas State just keeps feeding him.
Quarterback Brad Jackson also runs a passing attack that ranks 14th in EPA, and that balance makes the Bobcats hard to game-plan for.
On the other side, San Diego State’s offense is a mess, ranking bottom-10 in Success Rate and nearly dead last at putting together methodical drives. In every meaningful metric, things are going the wrong way for head coachSean Lewis.
Injuries or availability aside, there’s a reason this Texas State number has flown up. And if we're talking availability, things look bleak for SDSU, as the team has a case of the mumps.
At this pace, the line could easily blow past 10.
Pick: Texas State -8
