The Alabama Crimson Tide take on the Florida State Seminoles in Tallahassee, FL, on Saturday, Aug. 30. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Alabama is favored by -13.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -550. The total is set at 50.5 points.
Here’s my Alabama vs. Florida State prediction and college football picks for Saturday, August 30.
Alabama vs Florida State Predictions, Pick
- Alabama vs. Florida State Pick: Under 50.5
My Florida State vs. Alabama best bet is on the under. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Alabama vs Florida State Odds, Line
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -115 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -550 |
| Florida State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -105 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +400 |
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Florida State Seminoles Week 1 Preview
Alabama Crimson Tide
A lot can be said about the Crimson Tide this season, but it seems as if this program continues to hide in the weeds of perennial contenders.
There will be significant changes that should alter the way the Tide played from last season, but perhaps that’s for the better – especially after such a disappointing ending.
Former five-star quarterback Ty Simpson finally gets his turn as the starter in Tuscaloosa after serving as a backup behind Bryce Young and Jalen Milroe.
He’s only thrown 50 career passes and completed those at a 58% rate, but one of his more underrated traits is his speed. He may not have the burners like his predecessor in Milroe, but Simpson can book it.
He showed it off in a 2023 game against Chattanooga with a 78-yard run, but he was eventually called back because he let go of the ball too soon before entering the end zone.
Now he has an arsenal of receivers to throw to. Ryan Williams already broke down the walls as a 17-year-old superstar receiver last year. Veteran Germie Bernard will also be back after hauling in 794 receiving yards last season.
There will also be a new face on the outside, Isaiah Horton, the transfer from Miami, who’s believed to be a big part of the offense.
Behind Simpson, the running back room will look a little different with Jam Miller missing the first few weeks with a dislocated shoulder. It’ll be Richard Young and bowling ball Daniel Hill serving as the lead backs.
Florida State Seminoles
Whether FSU fans like it or not, its new quarterback — Tommy Castellanos from Boston College — put a gigantic target on the Seminoles' back after the comments he made about Alabama this offseason.
Castellanos is a dynamic quarterback who didn’t vibe well with Boston College coach Bill O’Brien, and once he got benched midseason, he found his way into the transfer portal.
Now he comes to Tallahassee, where expectations are all over the place. Last season was supposed to be the season, only for it to turn into an unmitigated disaster with DJ Uiagalelei as the starter.
Perhaps Castellanos can provide some excitement for a program that needs it. His ability to scramble and extend plays will most certainly create opportunities for the Noles, since Bama will most likely run a few blitz plays and attempt to drive Castellanos on his heels.
On FSU’s depth chart, only two starting members of this offense are returning from last season, and that’s former Alabama running back Roydell Williams and left guard Richie Leonard IV.
Beyond that, it’s a brand new show in Tallahassee. The Seminoles brought in wide receivers Duce Robinson from USC and Squirrel White from Tennessee, both of whom are poised to be pivotal parts of Gus Malzahn’s offense.
Robinson is a dangerous option since he’s most likely the top dog in the receiver room. In both of his seasons at USC, he was buried on the depth chart but still managed to break out two 300+ yard seasons.
In addition, he averaged 21 yards and 17 yards per catch in his freshman and sophomore seasons.
Alabama vs Florida State Week 1 Bet to Make
I think a lot of this handicap will be determined by the weather. I have to imagine that Bama fans are shivering in their boots seeing a possible rainy game in Florida, but there seems to be a different vibe coming out of Tuscaloosa compared to years past.
Action Network’s expert college football writer Collin Wilson opted for Alabama to cover the 13.5 spread, and while I see that being totally possible, I also see a world where the weather slows down the pace and the game gets brought to the ground.
Florida State is a little unpredictable this season. Most of its defense is still intact — except for a few players who went to the NFL, like Azareye’h Thomas — but the defense was horrible last season, allowing 30 points per game.
Alabama defensive lineman LT Overton expressed to reporters that “all disrespect will be addressed accordingly" after Castellanos' offseason comments, and I don’t doubt that.
But if this game is going to end up in the rain, I expect this to be a slugfest rather than a high-scoring bout.
If not, I’ll align with Collin and pick Bama spread.
Pick: Under 50.5
