The No. 6 Alabama Crimson Tide (5-1, 3-1 SEC) host the No. 11 Tennessee Volunteers (5-1, 2-1 SEC) in a top-15 SEC matchup on Saturday, Oct. 18, at 7:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Alabama toppled another top-15 opponent in Missouri, 27-24, last week, while Tennessee escaped Arkansas with a 34-31 victory in Knoxville.
Let's take a look at our Alabama vs. Tennessee picks and college football predictions for this marquee matchup on Saturday, Oct. 18.
Alabama vs. Tennessee Picks, Best Bets
By Pete Ruden
The Third Saturday in October. When this day comes around every year, there's something in the air that makes it feel truly special.
Over the course of this rivarly, there have been plenty of streaks.
From 1993-2004, Tennessee won 10 of the 12 games. Then, Nick Saban and the Crimson Tide started to go on a tear, winning 15 consecutive editions of this rivalry.
However, the Vols are looking to start another streak after toppling the Tide, 24-17, in 2024.
It would make sense considering both programs are in the infant stages of new eras, with Kalen DeBoer leading the ship in Tuscaloosa and Josh Heupel looking to make another College Football Playoff appearance in Knoxville.
So, which team will light up a victory cigar in 2025? We polled eight of our college football writers to get their takes on the spread and over/under. Let's take a look at their picks.
Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: Tennessee +8.5
By Joshua Nunn
The majority of our staff feels like this Tennessee team can go into Tuscaloosa and keep this game close throughout.
Tennessee is going to have to protect quarterback Joey Aguilar and keep him from feeling the pressure against this Alabama defensive front. I've been very impressed with how the offensive line has played this season, as Tennessee has allowed just four sacks and 17 tackles for loss while maintaining a team rushing average of 5.3 yards per carry.
The Vols rank 10th nationally in Offensive Success Rate, and Alabama has generated only nine sacks this season — four of which came in one game against Wisconsin.
This Tide defense has allowed 6.3 yards per play in conference games and will now be tasked with containing the strongest receiver corps they've faced this season.
Defensively, Alabama has been prone to giving up big plays. Well, the Vols are no strangers to taking — and connecting on — deep shots. Racking up explosive pass plays will be critical to giving Tennessee's offense chances to score and keep this close.
On the other side, the Tennessee secondary has been torched at times this season and will have its hands full with a Tide passing attack that's top-25 nationally in Offensive Passing EPA and passing explosiveness.
Bama quarterback Ty Simpson has been playing excellent football, and it also appears running back Jam Miller will be a go for this one.
Tennessee has done well to limit early-down success defensively, and if the defense can quarantine Miller and the ground game, the defensive line could cause some chaos in the backfield.
The Vols have recorded 26 sacks and 50 tackles for loss this season. While containing this offense is a tall order, the Alabama offensive line has given up some negative plays this season.
When it's all said and done, we'll take Tennessee to stay within striking distance.
Over/Under Pick
Over 58.5 | 7 Picks |
Pass | 0 Picks |
Under 58.5 | 1 Pick |
Our Over/Under Pick: Over 58.5
There’s way too much offensive potential for us to stay off the over. We’ll hopefully all be ripping cigars in the third quarter when Tennessee scores to take a 31-28 lead to ultimately get this thing over the number.
One big X-factor to activate a track meet Saturday in Tuscaloosa is the big-play ability through the air to continuously set up scoring chances.
Tennessee’s secondary is near the back half of the country in yards per completion allowed, which should give Alabama quarterback and Heisman candidate Ty Simpson plenty of options to move the chains with his receivers.
Alabama, meanwhile, has allowed 10.2 yards per completion, which is marginally worse than last year’s clip.
However, the Crimson Tide have yet to really face an offense like Josh Heupel’s high-octane, uptempo style, which thrives on go routes and skinny posts down the field.
Alabama offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb and Tennessee OC Joey Halzle really know how to script their teams into favorable positions early in the game. Tennessee actually ranks second in the nation in first-half points per game, while Alabama’s offense is just outside the top 10 (No. 11) at 20.8.
Advanced models in PRO anticipate a high-scoring game Saturday. PRO Projections forecast the Week 8 matchup for more than 60 points.
With a 7-1 vote on the over, we’ll root for the scoreboard operator to be plenty busy Saturday.
Alabama vs. Tennessee Odds, Lines, Spread
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -115 | 59.5 -115o / -105u | -360 |
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -105 | 59.5 -115o / -105u | +285 |
- Alabama vs. Tennessee Spread: Alabama -9.5, Tennessee +9.5
- Alabama vs. Tennessee Over/Under: 59.5 Total Points
- Alabama vs. Tennessee Moneyline: Alabama ML -360, Tennessee ML +285
