Alabama vs. Florida Player Props: Heisman Favorites Projected For Big SEC Championship
Kent Gidley/Collegiate Images/Getty Images. Pictured: Mac Jones, Alabama
- Two Heisman hopefuls at quarterback. Two dominant pass-catchers.
- The SEC Championship has a little bit of everything for those interested in more than just the spread and total.
- Tommy Stokke breaks down where the SEC Championship prop value is below.
Some of the luster of the SEC Championship game is gone following Florida’s loss to LSU, but there are enough expected fireworks between the three Heisman favorites to make up for it.
With a consensus total of 74.5 at time of publish, plenty of points are expected from both sides. That correlates with the huge numbers available in player props for Mac Jones, DeVonta Smith and Kyle Trask.
Trask’s Heisman lead is gone, at least according to the betting market. After holding the top spot for the last month, Trask and Florida’s stumble against LSU created a shift, catapulting Jones to the top followed by his favorite target, Smith.
Jones is now the odds-on favorite across major sportsbooks. Smith is in the +200 range. Trask is as low as +350 and as high as +800. Those odds suggest this thing is still up for grabs.
SEC Championship Game Passing Yards O/U
These are the highest totals available for any quarterback playing this weekend. Fitting, as Trask is the nation’s leading passer with 3,717 yards on the season. That’s good for 371 per game, just ahead of Saturday’s prop.
Alabama has allowed just two players to reach 300 yards passing this season. Matt Corral put up 365 yards in a 63-48 loss for Ole Miss. Texas A&M’s Kellen Mond reached 318 yards in a 52-24 loss.
Trask has the ceiling, topping 363 yards five times, including over 400 yards four times. The game script — Alabama is a 17-point favorite — should allow for the attempts. Add in the Heisman motivation, and Trask’s best effort for cumulative stats should be there. Effort won’t get it done though; he’ll have to execute against a tough Bama defense.
Jones is no Alabama game manager. He’s fourth in the country in passing yards, averaging 332 per game. In the aforementioned shootouts against Corral and Mond, Jones was even better, with 435 yards against the Aggies and 417 yards versus the Rebels.
But he’s only topped 357 yards once in his last five games. Is that indicative of what’s to come, or a sign of Alabama’s dominance not needing much through the air?
SEC Championship Game Rushing Yards O/U
Just one player available, and it’s the Alabama workhorse. He’s carried the ball over 100 times more than Brian Robinson Jr., averaging 108 yards per game on 5.9 yards per carry.
He’s reached the century mark four times this year, with a high of 206 against Ole Miss. Florida’s defense ranks 45th in the nation against the run, allowing 142 yards per game.
SEC Championship Game Receiving Yards O/U
The other star with a Heisman to play for, Smith’s number jumps off the page — 155.5 is a lot of yards!
And then you look at Smith’s recent four-game stretch.
Throw out his 3-for-22 last week in a blowout win over Arkansas (where he still contributed a punt return touchdown).
Eight catches, 231 yards against LSU. Seven catches, 171 yards against Auburn. Nine catches, 144 yards against Kentucky. Eleven catches, 203 yards against Mississippi State.
Earlier in the year, he had 167 yards against Georgia and 164 against Ole Miss.
He’s responsible for almost 40% of Jones’ passing yards. He’ll be looked at often.
That’s a lot of information pointing to the over.
But every time Jones looks Smith’s way on Saturday, he’ll likely see Kaiir Elam, the best-graded corner in the SEC. Florida’s defense has the individual player to stick on Smith and will likely implore someone else to beat them. Alabama has the weapons to do that, so Jones may look elsewhere.
For Florida, Pitts is Trask’s best target. He missed three games this year, including last week’s loss to LSU. When he’s on the field, he’s produced with 92 yards per game. Two big performances (170 yards, 128 yards) show his potential but also skew the average a bit. He’s been held under 60 yards three times.
Like Smith for Florida, Pitts will be the focus of Alabama’s defense.
First Player to Score a Touchdown
There’s a lot of talent on the field, which means it’s harder to pin down one guy to score first.
Nine times in 10 games Alabama has scored the first touchdown, with Harris being the guy four times. Smith has scored first three times (and a fourth counting for special teams) with John Metchie III picking up the other two.
Florida’s scored first five times in nine games with Pitts getting it done a team-high three times.
SEC Championship Game Anytime TD Scorer
Harris leads all players in this game with 22 touchdowns, ahead of Smith’s 15 and Pitts’ 11. Harris is one of four Alabama running backs with a touchdown, but Smith has taken a carry into the end zone and Jones has kept one himself.
Five players have receiving touchdowns for the Crimson Tide, but one of them is Jaylen Waddle who is out for the year. Slade Bolden has the most catches (17) on the team without a touchdown.
The Gators are likely to get their points through the air. Of their offensive touchdowns, 42 are through the air with only eight on the ground. Pitts, Kadarious Toney and Trevon Grimes have a combined 28 touchdowns. Dameon Pierce is the team’s leading rusher with three touchdowns.