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Iowa State vs. Texas Sharp Pick & Updated Odds: Pros Hit Spread for Friday Afternoon Game

Iowa State vs. Texas Sharp Pick & Updated Odds: Pros Hit Spread for Friday Afternoon Game article feature image

Brian Bahr/Getty Images. Pictured: Sam Ehlinger.

  • Danny Donahue breaks down recent betting market movement using our PRO Report, which helps bettors identify sharp action, big bets and betting systems in play for any given matchup.
  • Friday's Iowa State vs. Texas college football game has been lighting up our PRO Report already, with multiple key signals moving the needle on Friday's noon Big 12 matchup. Below, find Danny's full betting market breakdown, including which side of Iowa State vs. Texas is the sharp one, and which is simply square.

College Football Odds: Iowa State vs. Texas

Iowa State Odds +1
Texas Odds -1
Over/Under 56.5
PRO Projection ISU -2 | 58.9
Time 12 p.m. ET
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Over the past few days, both Iowa State and Texas have seen a minus-sign beside their respective spreads at given times, as oddsmakers have done quite a bit of shifting with this line since opening it at Texas -2.5 on Sunday.

Obviously, the current line — as of midday Thursday — is significantly smaller, and sharps are to thank for that. In fact, according to our PRO Report, there’s still an edge on the sharp side at the current number.

Note: Data as of 12 p.m. ET Thursday.

There’s more sharp action Friday…

Notre Dame vs. UNC

Stanford vs. Cal

Oregon vs. Oregon State

College Football Pick: Iowa State vs. Texas

Sharps and big bettors — who are likely one and the same — have taken a liking to the small underdog, which our model projects to not be an underdog at all.

Sharp Action

Iowa State has been slightly more popular (57% of bets as of writing), but it seems that it’s not just casual bettors making up that majority. Per Sports Insights Bet Signals, which track and record instances of line movement caused specifically by sharp action, there have been at least four unique cases of pro money hitting the Cyclones since this line opened.

That helps explain why oddsmakers were pushed to bring their spread down to a single point.

Sharp Action edge: Iowa State

Big Money

And as Iowa State is driving the slight majority of bets (which could certainly change come kickoff), it’s generated a much heavier majority of actual money.

The 74% of spread dollars that have landed on the Cyclones reveals them to be landing the bigger bets — the ones more likely to come from sharps.

Big Money edge: Iowa State

Model Projections

As mentioned, our model is still finding an edge on this matchup even following the 1.5-point line move. It projects Iowa State as a 2-point favorite, giving considerable value to the underdog at the current number.

Model Projections edge: Iowa State

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