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Missouri vs Auburn Odds, Picks: College Football Week 4 Betting Preview

Missouri vs Auburn Odds, Picks: College Football Week 4 Betting Preview article feature image
Credit:

Michael Chang/Getty Images. Pictured: T.J. Finley

Missouri vs Auburn Odds

Saturday, Sept 24
12 p.m. ET
ESPN
Missouri Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+7.5
-110
51.5
-104o / -118u
+230
Auburn Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-7.5
-110
51.5
-104o / -118u
-285
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Missouri and Auburn will begin their SEC play on Saturday when they kick off at noon in Jordan Hare Stadium.

Despite both being in the SEC, it will be just their fourth meeting all-time. Auburn leads the series 2-1 while also owning a two-game win streak, the most notable victory being the 2013 SEC Championship game.

These teams share more than just a mascot; they both currently find themselves in very similar situations.

Both programs have started the season 2-1, while both head coaches find themselves on varying degrees of the hot seat.

Mizzou enters the game after a convincing 34-17 win over Abilene Christian. The Tigers may not have covered the spread, but they didn’t lose.

The same can’t be said for Auburn, which enters the second game of a homestand after an absolute blowout at the hands of Penn State. The Nittany Lions beat the Tigers 41-12 in a game where Auburn was a 2.5-point underdog.

Mizzou is looking for head coach Eliah Drinkwitz to make the team competitive against some of the top dogs in the SEC in year three.

Meanwhile, Auburn seems all but ready to call it quits on Bryan Harsin just a year and three games into his time in the Plains.

In a game that feels like a must-win for both coaches, who comes out on top?


Missouri Tigers

Missouri may have looked great on offense last week — racking up 487 total yards and 34 points — but it came against an FCS opponent in Abeline Christian.

The previous week, when matched up against a Power Five team in Kansas State, the Tigers were held to just 12 points and 222 total yards.

Their most significant weakness so far this season is the offensive line. Specifically last week against an FCS opponent, it allowed a sack that led to a scoop-and-score by ACU, as well as nine tackles for loss. Every opposing team has recorded at least seven tackles for loss this year against the Tigers.

Penalties have also been an issue for the offensive line. Missouri had eight penalties last Saturday, six of which were holding by the offensive line.

While on the defensive side of the ball, pressure and run defense have been a reoccurring issue. Missouri recorded four sacks against Louisiana Tech, but has not had a single one since.

The Tigers rank 47th in rush defense — limiting teams to just 117 yards per game on average — but they have yet to face a challenge anywhere close to Auburn, which ranks 43rd nationally in rush success.


Auburn Tigers

Despite losing by 29 last week, Auburn was able to move the ball reasonably well.

The Tigers racked up 415 total yards of offense, but when you turn the ball over four times in a single game, it doesn’t matter how well you move the ball up and down the field.

Two different quarterbacks took snaps for the Tigers last week, but I expect T.J. Finley to remain the starter for the matchup with Mizzou.

One thing that will definitely need to change from last week is the run game.

Tank Bigsby totaled just 39 yards on 11 carries for the Tigers. He did notch two catches for 38 yards, but it was still the fewest touches he’s had since last year’s win over LSU. Auburn was forced to throw the ball more after falling behind 21-6 to the Nittany Lions, but that wasn’t until the third quarter.

All offseason, Auburn talked about how Bigsby would be the driving force and the primary component of this offense. If the Tigers want to have success against Missouri, that’s precisely what needs to happen.

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Missouri vs Auburn Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Missouri and Auburn match up statistically:

Missouri Offense vs. Auburn Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 68 47
Line Yards 107 13
Pass Success 114 89
Pass Blocking** 71 8
Havoc 116 100
Finishing Drives 63 117
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Auburn Offense vs. Missouri Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 43 37
Line Yards 56 50
Pass Success 69 19
Pass Blocking** 64 14
Havoc 115 67
Finishing Drives 81 82
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 45 15
PFF Coverage 59 47
SP+ Special Teams 71 11
Seconds per Play 25.8 (53) 25.7 (49)
Rush Rate 58.3% (38) 58.4% (36)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Missouri vs Auburn Betting Pick

Auburn has yet to cover the spread through three games this season, but I think it finally gets it done here at home against Missouri.

Auburn is an all-around more talented team than Missouri, but more importantly, has excelled in areas that Mizzou has struggled.

Coming off one of its worst home defeats in history — not to mention Harsin finding himself firmly on the hot seat — I think Auburn bounces back in a big way here.

Our Action Network projections make Auburn a 10-point favorite over Missouri. I have Auburn at -7, and I would take it up to 9.5-point favorites.

Pick: Auburn -7 (Play to -9.5)

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