Tulsa vs. SMU Odds, Picks: Can Mustangs Cover Spread? (November 27)

Tulsa vs. SMU Odds, Picks: Can Mustangs Cover Spread? (November 27) article feature image
Credit:

Matthew Visinsky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Danny Gray.

  • SMU enters its matchup against Tulsa as -6.5 favorites, according to updated odds.
  • The Mustangs' passing attack has been solid all season with Tanner Mordecai leading the way at quarterback.
  • Check out Keg's full betting preview and pick below.

Tulsa vs. SMU Odds

Saturday, Nov. 27
4 p.m. ET
ESPN2
Tulsa Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+6.5
-105
62
-120o / +100u
+195
SMU Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-6.5
-115
62
-120o / +100u
-240
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

On Saturday afternoon, the SMU Mustangs and the Tulsa Golden Hurricane meet in AAC action at Gerald J. Ford Stadium. The Mustangs could use a bounce-back win after a 48-14 loss to Cincinnati in their last outing.

In the last four matchups between these two squads, Tulsa and SMU have an even 2-2 record. SMU had the upper hand in those four matchups, scoring 129 points while Tulsa put up 126.

The Golden Hurricane have rebounded nicely following a disappointing loss to Cincinnati, comfortably defeating inferior opponents the last two weeks.

SMU will be challenged against a Tulsa defense that ranks second in the conference in total yards allowed and points scored, giving up only 21.3 ppg.

There is a significant contrast of styles for Saturday night’s contest as both teams try to keep pace with Cincinnati and keep their conference championship hopes alive.

Will the Tulsa defense be able to slow down the explosive Mustangs offense on the road?


Tulsa Golden Hurricane

The Golden Hurricane will be out to build on a 44-10 win over Temple in their last game.

Davis Brin has thrown for 2,725 yards, 15 touchdowns and 14 picks while completing 52.9% of his passes. Catching those passes has been an elite trio in Josh Johnson, JuanCarlos Santana and Sam Crawford Jr.

Another productive trio in Shamari Brooks, Anthony Watkins and Deneric Prince highlight the rushing offense, which has a combined 1,873 yards and 13 touchdowns this season.

On defense, Justin Wright leads the Golden Hurricane with 60 total tackles and 3.5 sacks, while Anthony Goodlow has a team-high four sacks.

The Hurricane defensive line is one of the best at getting into the backfield, which has been a big reason why the defense has had so much success with turnovers. The run defense for Tulsa has also excelled all season, including against Oklahoma State to start the year.

Tulsa is awful on third downs, which is part of the reason why it’s not great at controlling the clock. The offense has gone up against just three bad defenses and averages 26.2 points and 438.6 yards per game while allowing 27.9 points and 376 yards per game.

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SMU Mustangs

The Mustangs could use a bounce-back win after a 48-14 loss to Cincinnati in their last outing.

Tanner Mordecai has thrown for 3,330 yards, 38 touchdowns and 10 interceptions on 69.1% accuracy. The passing game has roared for 300 yards or more in four of the last five games. There haven’t been any problems keeping the chains moving, and the offense is second in the conference and ninth in the nation in total yards.

The running game has been just as effective for the Mustangs as Tre Siggers and Ulysses Bentley IV have a combined 1,312 yards and 12 rushing TDs this season.

The Mustangs’ passing attack is led by a quartet of dynamic pass-catchers. Danny Gray has 803 yards and nine touchdowns, Rashee Rice has 620 receiving yards and nine touchdowns, Reggie Roberson Jr. has 574 receiving yards and six touchdowns, while Grant Calcaterra has 465 receiving yards and four scores.

On defense, Delano Robinson has a team-high 73 total tackles, while DeVere Levelston has a team-high 6.5 sacks and Turner Coxe adds six sacks. Gary Wiley also has 4.5 sacks for the Mustangs this season.

As a team, they rank 85th in the country allowing 29.8 points per game while also ranking 92nd in yards, giving up 426 per contest. 

Offensively, the Mustangs are recording 37.4 points and 469 yards per game.


Tulsa vs. SMU Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Tulsa and SMU match up statistically:

Tulsa Offense vs. SMU Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 106 12
Line Yards 100 60
Pass Success 97 94
Pass Blocking** 46 17
Big Play 78 90
Havoc 78 89
Finishing Drives 106 97
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

SMU Offense vs. Tulsa Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 57 52
Line Yards 55 44
Pass Success 4 38
Pass Blocking** 121 22
Big Play 11 76
Havoc 41 67
Finishing Drives 27 71
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 15 103
Coverage 62 120
Middle 8 16 7
SP+ Special Teams 28 99
Plays per Minute 40 21
Rush Rate 56.6% (54) 47.8% (112)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Tulsa vs. SMU Betting Pick

I think the SMU offense will be too much for the Golden Hurricane to handle.

The Mustangs are one of the best passing teams in the country and will be able to show that off against a Tulsa team that has allowed opponents to average 217 passing yards per game.

I would like to stay at the key number of 7 or below. I got the Mustangs at -6.5 and would bet them as high as -7.

Pick: SMU -7 (-115) or better

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