One of the biggest games of the 2026 college football season kicks off on Saturday when the No. 4 Texas Longhorns host the No. 1 Ohio State Buckeyes.
With a spread of just 1.5 points, this matchup is shaping up to be one of the most entertaining games of the year to this point — and that's without the massive postseason implications that could be in play.
The Longhorns are once again National Championship contenders behind quarterback Arch Manning, who picked up some transfer portal weapons to play with over the offseason.
Manning's connection with Auburn transfer Cam Coleman is already apparent after the two connected for a touchdown in their season opener against Texas State.
On the other side, the Buckeyes are the favorites to win the national title (+500) thanks in large part to quarterback Julian Sayin and wide receiver Jeremiah Smith, who has racked up over 2,700 yards and 29 touchdowns in his career, including two scores already this season.
With Texas entering as a -1.5 underdog and the over/under set at a modest 49.5 points, who holds the advantage here?
Let's dive into our Texas vs. Ohio State picks and college football predictions for this Week 2 clash on Saturday, September 12.
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Texas vs. Ohio State Pick
Our Staff's Pick: Ohio State +6.5
By RoadToCFB
Given the close spread and ranking between the No. 1 and No. 4 teams in the country, it’s no surprise that our staff is split on this line. Six of our 11 experts side with Ohio State +1.5, while the remaining five back Texas -1.5 at home.
As it stands after Week 1, respected public power ratings are just as split between these two teams, most of which have them first and second. FPI, TeamRankings and Sagarin favor Texas, while SP+, FEI and our own Collin Wilson side with Ohio State.
Market ratings also side with the Buckeyes, as home-field advantage at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium is worth more than 1.5 points.
New Ohio State offensive coordinator Arthur Smith picked up the pace in the season opener, running a play every 24.5 seconds in the first half with the first-team offense on the field — a stark difference from last year’s nation-slowest 31.1.
Despite an uptick in heavy personnel, Smith also got his star receivers involved early and often, targeting Jeremiah Smith nine times and UTSA transfer Devin McCuin seven times.
Last year’s offensive concerns have been directly addressed right out of the gate.
But this game will be won and lost at the line of scrimmage. Both teams have had some concerns on the offensive line.
On more than one occasion, the Buckeyes’ line was beaten in one-on-one opportunities by Ball State pass rushers in Week 1. Last year, Texas’ line was a disaster, and NFL prospect Trevor Goosby began this season with injury concerns.
Against a better Buckeyes defensive front, we’ll see if this unit has truly turned it around. Rarely harassed by Texas State’s front, Arch Manning was nearly perfect, completing 20-of-27 passes for 291 yards and four touchdowns.
In a game with razor-thin margins and top-end NFL talent at every level, it’s likely a game of who makes the first mistake. Both offenses looked flawless, and Ohio State even flashed an explosive run game in the second half.
In line with our experts, there’s an ever-so-slight nod to Ohio State here.
Texas vs. Ohio State Over/Under Pick
Over 49.5 | 4 Picks |
Pass | 2 Picks |
Under 49.5 | 6 Picks |
Our Staff's Pick: Under 49.5
By RoadToCFB
Just like with the spread, our experts at Action Network are split across the board when it comes to this NFL-esque point total. Six of our 12 voters lean under 48.5 points, four lean over and two see this as a fair line.
In recent history, big regular-season games between giants result in low-scoring slugfests.
Look no further than last year’s showdown between these two teams for a 14-7 final in Columbus. Miami and Notre Dame dueled to a 27-24 finish to open 2025, too.
Players and coaches — many of whom are new to the programs — typically head into these marquee games tightly wound and looking for a way to control something (the clock, the ground game, anything).
It’s a boxing match of poking and prodding for any weakness. That results in a slow pace and conservative game planning.
Turns out, both teams had a major issue with conservative play-calling all season long. But out of the gate, both teams also made it clear that would not be the case moving forward.
Expect a significant increase in Ohio State’s tempo on offense, and Texas’ defense in its first game under Will Muschamp showed some vulnerabilities (which Texas State failed to capitalize on).
Beau Sparks, good as he is for the Bobcats, is not Jeremiah Smith, and the opportunity against Texas’ defense comes against its secondary.
But the concern on that end is the Buckeyes’ tackles holding up. Multiple times they were beat against Ball State and, of course, the Cardinals don’t roster anyone with the pass-rushing prowess of future first-round NFL pick Colin Simmons.
Expect an aggressive approach from Muschamp up front while attempting to put a lid on the top of Smith and poach on McCuin.
For those reasons — and the fact that we haven’t seen Texas’ line tested since last year — our team leans slightly under to fair value on the total.
Texas vs. Ohio State Player Prop Pick
Devin McCuin Over 46.5 Receiving Yards (Play to 49.5)
By Alex Hinton
Bringing in top-five high school recruiting classes on an annual basis, Ohio State doesn't dip into the transfer portal often, but it did to bring in UTSA transfer Devin McCuin.
In his Buckeyes debut, McCuin made an immediate impact with six catches for 97 yards and a touchdown. He quickly forged a connection with quarterback Julian Sayin and benefited from the attention that Jeremiah Smith draws.
While Smith will get his, teams will spend much of this season trying to take him away, and Texas is no exception. In two games against Texas, Smith has a total of seven receptions for 46 yards.
If you want to fade Smith against the Longhorns for a third time, feel free. However, I'll instead back McCuin, who has plenty of incentive to have a big night.
McCuin is a Jacksonville, Texas, native, and Texas didn't recruit him either out of high school or as a transfer. While he didn't grow up a Texas fan, most Texas high school football players at least want the opportunity to play for the state’s flagship program and typically try to make the Longhorns pay when they don’t get it.
Additionally, McCuin has an important role playing opposite Smith as the Buckeyes look for a third consecutive win over the Longhorns.
In last year’s matchup, it was Carnell Tate, not Smith, who made the game’s big play with a 40-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter, which proved to be the deciding score.
Tate finished with two catches for 49 yards, which is just about what we need from McCuin this week.
Given that Sayin won't be making his first start this time around, the Buckeyes’ passing game should have more volume this time around, which benefits McCuin as well as their other receivers.
Texas vs. Ohio State Odds
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 49.5 -112o / -108u | -118 |
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 49.5 -112o / -108u | -102 |
