You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article. Well, we decided a couple of years ago that we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we share weekly on the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers. To kick off the chalk talk this year, we're rolling with two power conference teams facing Group of 6 foes.
Let's dive into our Week 2 college football predictions and NCAAF picks for Memphis vs. Boise State and Bowling Green vs. Nebraska on Saturday, Sept. 12. And be sure to download the Action Network app for additional picks and analysis.
Week 2 College Football Predictions
- Boise State -8.5 vs. Memphis
- Nebraska -30 vs. Bowling Green
Memphis vs Boise State Prediction
| Memphis Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -105 | 56.5 -106o / -114u | +285 |
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -115 | 56.5 -106o / -114u | -365 |
By Stuckey
I have Boise State favored by double digits here, so I'll roll with the Broncos.
This is a tough spot for Memphis, which went out to UNLV in Week 0, came home for a rivalry game in the heat, and is now turning right back around to play out west at Boise State.
Boise impressed me last week, especially quarterback Maddux Madsen. In the past, he'd had trouble against top competition, but that Oregon game was the best I’ve seen him look. He looked like a true fourth-year starter taking the next step.
On the other side, Memphis’ defense has been a mess. The Tigers got shredded by UNLV quarterback Jackson Arnold in Week 0 before an injury on the offensive line changed things. Then, Arkansas State did the same thing the next week.
Offensively, quarterback Marcus Stokes and the running backs have flashed, and I like offensive coordinator Kevin Decker, but this is a different test.
Memphis has often built leads against weaker teams and leaned on its D-line to tee off. I don’t think that’s happening here. Boise can grind on it, wear it down, and the defensive line should create real problems for the Tigers’ line.
Expect Stokes to make a couple mistakes, Boise to get out to a lead, and then extend it.
For what it's worth, following a loss, Boise State has gone a perfect 9-0 against the spread at home vs. nonconference opponents over the past 15 seasons with a double-digit average cover margin.
Give me the Broncos.
Pick: Boise State -8.5
Bowling Green vs Nebraska Prediction
| Bowling Green Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+29.5 -105 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +1800 |
| Nebraska Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-29.5 -115 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -8000 |
The market is pricing Bowling Green and Ohio like they’re the same matchup against Nebraska, so the Cornhuskers are my overdog here.
The spread for the Nebraska vs. Ohio and Nebraska vs. Bowling Green games are basically the same, but the Falcons just lost to Tarleton State.
In fact, the Texans averaged 8.1 yards per play against Bowling Green, and now it's about to face Nebraska, which averaged seven yards per play against Ohio.
Seven of Nebraska’s 11 drives featured two-plus first downs. ULV transfer quarterback Anthony Colandrea threw three touchdowns to no interceptions, and freshman running back Jamal Rule averaged 8.1 yards per carry with 122 yards and two scores.
Nebraska’s offense under coordinator Dana Holgorsen looks good, and the market treating Bowling Green and Ohio like equals feels off. I don’t think Ohio would’ve lost to Tarleton, so I'll take the Cornhuskers to roll here.
Pick: Nebraska -30
