Bowling Green vs. Buffalo Odds, Picks | How to Bet This MAC Affair

Bowling Green vs. Buffalo Odds, Picks | How to Bet This MAC Affair article feature image

Photo by Rich von Biberstein/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Connor Bazelak (Bowling Green)

Bowling Green vs Buffalo Odds

Saturday, Oct. 14
3:30 p.m. ET
Bowling Green Odds
-110o / -110u
Buffalo Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

Buffalo hosts Bowling Green Saturday afternoon in a Mid-American Conference East Division battle.

The Bulls are off to a 2-0 start in MAC play thanks to victories over Akron and Central Michigan, though those are their lone wins on the year.

Meanwhile, the Falcons are looking for their first conference victory after a tough start to the season.

We're still a few weeks away from midweek MACtion, but we don’t need to wait until then to find great betting value in this conference. Here's my pick for Bowling Green vs. Buffalo.

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

Bowling Green Falcons

Head coach Scot Loeffler is in his fifth season with the program and led Bowling Green to its first bowl game since 2015 last year.

However, he'll need a big turnaround in order to secure a bowl bid in consecutive seasons.

One big reason for the troubling start has been a difficult schedule. Bowling Green will be playing on the road for the fifth time in seven games, which is more than any other FBS team.

These trips haven’t been easy, either. The Falcons have played at Conference USA favorite Liberty, No. 2 Michigan, MAC favorite Miami (OH) and Georgia Tech.

Those opponents are a combined 28-7, but that didn’t stop Bowling Green from picking up a historic victory over a Power Five program.

The win over the Yellow Jackets was a first against an ACC opponent and a second Power Five triumph under Loeffler.

Once this schedule lightens up with MAC foes, I believe the Falcons will be more competitive.

Buffalo Bulls

After starting the season with four straight losses, coach Maurice Linguist has reversed the tide in MAC play with back-to-back wins. Picking up victories in October is nothing new for Linguist, as the Bulls are 7-3 under him in October in his career.

A key to the turnaround has been the play of the defense, which has only allowed an average of 11.5 points and 306 yards per game in the two wins.

This has also been a very opportunistic unit in recent contests, as it's forced eight turnovers in the past three games. Devin Grant has been a key contributor to the defense and is tied for first in the nation with four interceptions.

On offense, 10 different players have scored a touchdown for the Bulls this season. Ron Cook Jr. leads the way with five, but the balance makes Buffalo difficult to defend.

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Bowling Green vs Buffalo

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Bowling Green and Buffalo match up statistically:

Bowling Green Offense vs. Buffalo Defense
Rush Success9650
Line Yards8940
Pass Success11244
Finishing Drives11196
Quality Drives125102
Buffalo Offense vs. Bowling Green Defense
Rush Success9198
Line Yards86122
Pass Success122126
Finishing Drives5874
Quality Drives109106
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling3072
PFF Coverage9783
Special Teams SP+12562
Middle 84383
Seconds per Play30.7 (126)25.7 (44)
Rush Rate52.4% (79)47.9% (110)

Bowling Green vs Buffalo

Betting Pick & Prediction

Everything in the charts above point towards Buffalo picking up another convincing win.

However, I’m not fully buying the Bulls in this spot.

So, my best bet is to take Bowling Green at +4.5, which I would play to +3. If this falls below that, I'd take my shot with the visitors at plus money on the moneyline.

I just feel there has been too much of an over-adjustment to Buffalo’s power ratings after the recent wins.

I’m not going to try to sell you too hard on Bowling Green, but you can’t ignore how difficult the schedule has been.

I make this much closer to a coin flip, so I like being able to take over a field goal.

Pick: Bowling Green +4.5 (Play to +3)

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