The Houston Cougars take on the Texas Tech Red Raiders in Lubbock, Texas, on Friday, Sept. 18. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
Texas Tech is favored by -7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -330. Houston, meanwhile, enters as a +7.5 underdog and is +260 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 52.5 total points.
Here’s my Houston vs. Texas Tech prediction and college football pick for Friday, September 18.
Houston vs Texas Tech Prediction
- Houston vs. Texas Tech Pick: Texas Tech 1H Team Total Under 15.5
My Texas Tech vs. Houston best bet is on the Red Raiders to stay under their first-half team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Houston vs Texas Tech Odds
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -105 | 52.5 -105o / -115u | +260 |
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -115 | 52.5 -105o / -115u | -330 |
- Houston vs Texas Tech point spread: Texas Tech -7.5, Houston +7.5
- Houston vs Texas Tech over/under: 52.5 (-105o / -115u)
- Houston vs Texas Tech moneyline: Houston +260, Texas Tech -330
Houston vs Texas Tech College Football Preview
Houston Cougars Betting Preview: Coogs Are Contenders
I've written previously about Willie Fritz's track record and why there are real reasons to buy into Houston this season. Other programs garnered more attention in the conference title category while the Cougars entered the year well outside the "dark horse" category.
That said, Houston continues to fly under the radar as a legitimate Big 12 contender, with odds still north of +1000.
This next game at Texas Tech should have real ramifications on both the numbers and confidence in futures positions, should you have the Coogs in pocket.
Fritz and the Cougars had Oregon State packed and ready to ship back to Corvallis until the Beavers mounted a furious comeback.
Houston's defensive front bore down on the backfield all afternoon and completely shut down the run game. It then became the Braden Atkinson show, and the sophomore Mercer transfer nearly made it happen.
The strengths and weaknesses of Houston's defense became apparent in Week 1. It has a very stout defensive line with ferocious pass rushers and a nearly impenetrable front seven.
But the secondary appears not to be up to the same level, which was expected after losing players to the NFL draft this spring.
Offensively, the run game struggled early but found its stride later on. Makhi Hughes finished with 98 rushing yards and a touchdown and followed it up the next week in a 77-6 pulverizing of Southern U with another touchdown.
Though it hilariously overmatched Southern, Houston did show the ability to be multiple and persistent on the ground, something I believe we'll see attempted early on against Texas Tech.
Texas Tech Red Raiders Betting Preview: Another Slow Start
It's been two slow starts for the Red Raiders through two games. Both times, Texas Tech pulled away, but it underdelivered on results expected from the Big 12 favorites.
In Week 1, it was a sound, if unspectacular, 33-10 victory over Abilene Christian as a 42.5-point favorite, while in Week 2, Tech needed a 14-3 fourth-quarter edge to stave off pesky Oregon State in a 35-24 win as a four-score favorite.
That's 0-for-2 against the spread, probably with unfairly high expectations.
The Tech offensive line hasn't been excellent. QB Will Hammond took four sacks against Oregon State last weekend (seven pressures), although he was only pressured twice against the out-manned Abilene Christian.
There are some serious pass rushes upcoming on the schedule (Houston, Arizona), and that unit needs to pick up the pace. That's something it should do, considering four of its starters were here last year.
That unit also generated 2.8 yards per carry, less than what Oregon State's offensive line generated in that same game (3.32).
Tech may return Trey White, who sat Weeks 1 and 2 with a knee injury.
Even without its potential top playmaker off the edge, the Tech defensive front has caused lots of disruptions. Jamond Mathis and A.J. Holmes Jr. already have two sacks apiece, and White racked up seven sacks last year at San Diego State.
The defense is about as advertised, even though Atkinson and the Beavers' offense managed to grab 24 points. Without explosives (which is what that offense is all about), Oregon State struggled to find anything consistent. That'll probably continue to be the case this season.
On a down-to-down basis, Tech's defense may be elite, but it has a tendency to give up a big play or two.
Some of the offensive struggles can be chalked up to vanilla game plans against way overmatched opponents. But OC Mack Leftwich still ran a blistering tempo against Oregon State (22.8 seconds per play) and managed to gain just 51% of available yards.
Slow and inefficient starts can't continue as Tech moves into Big 12 play.
Houston vs Texas Tech Pick, Betting Analysis
For the first time in what's considered a pretty big game, we have a common opponent to compare results to. While simply gauging "Team A beat the common opponent by more than Team B, therefore Team A is better than Team B" isn't nearly enough, it's a decent data point.
Houston jumped out to a commanding early lead — though Oregon State missed some opportunities and was plagued by predictable play calling– while Texas Tech used a 14-3 fourth-quarter advantage to cover its tracks.
Both teams struggled to contain the playmaking of Atkinson.
In the wake of Week 1, Texas Tech was lined as a -13 favorite; upon re-opening after Week 2, that fell to Tech -9.5 and was bet down to -7.5. The total moved down from 54, but 51.5 appears to be the buy point back to the over.
Conner Weigman is a mobile playmaker with more rushing ability and comparable throw-on-the-run capability to Atkinson, albeit he probably falls short in his on-schedule passing.
Even with a great pass rush bearing down on him, I expect Weigman to extend drives with his legs and OC Slade Nagle to use Weigman in the dedicated run game to alleviate some of that pressure.
But this is a big game between two teams with dynamic pass rushes. Hammond took four sacks against a pesky Oregon State defensive front last week, and this Houston pass rush is superior to that. Even at home, it may be slow getting out of the gate until Tech adjusts and finds its rhythm.
The full-game total has been bet down and back up again. With that kind of two-way movement, I am looking to attack derivative markets.
Pick: Texas Tech 1H Team Total Under 15.5 (Play to 14.5)
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