A second straight 2-1 week for our weekly team totals article.
Auburn team total over 44.5, in particular, was a really tough beat. The Tigers had 43 points after three quarters but opted not to kick a field goal on fourth-and-goal early in the fourth quarter. They got inside the 10-yard line twice in the fourth quarter but didn’t score any points.
It looked like a 3-0 sweep, but a 2-1 week is never a bad thing.
LSU vs. Ole Miss is the must-see game of the weekend, but we’re going to dive deep into the card looking for team totals value in Week 3.
Let's dive into our NCAAF picks and college football predictions for this week's team totals.
Ball State vs Liberty Pick
Liberty has once again started the season really poorly on offense.
The Flames haven't had the explosiveness they were expected to have in the running game. They have zero rushing plays of 30 yards or more through two games, including in the 24-23 win over FCS Gardner-Webb last weekend.
Liberty plays at a bottom-25 pace nationally. It runs the ball on nearly 60% of its offensive plays, but it ranks just 131st nationally in PPA/Rush.
Ball State resides in the bottom 50 in tempo as well. I think it'll try to shorten the game here if it can.
The Cardinals defense isn’t good, but it's a touch better than expected. Ohio State struggled to run the football in the first half against this team.
Liberty put up only 5.7 yards per play against Gardner-Webb. Kanye Udoh is the most talented running back on the Liberty roster, but he has only one carry through the first two games.
The posted total in this game has dropped by more than a touchdown. Although the line move makes sense, Liberty is getting too much credit from the oddsmakers. Rather than taking Ball State on the spread, I’d rather fade the Flames offense here.
Pick: Liberty Team Total Under 32.5
Confidence Rating: A-
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Kennesaw State vs Tennessee Pick
The Tennessee Volunteers host the Kennesaw State Owls in what will be a major mismatch on Saturday night.
Josh Heupel’s teams have a long history of smashing weaker opponents, and they've been particularly good in the first half in these spots.
How about this nugget from Bet Labs? Heupel’s teams are a whopping 49-26 against the spread in the first half in his career. When favored by two touchdowns or more, they're 16-4 ATS in the first half (FBS vs. FBS games).
In all of Heupel’s games as a coach, the first-half over has gone 40-32-4. Year after year, his teams are in the lead or near the lead in first-half points.
Kennesaw State had a fun season last year, but this team is completely overmatched. Georgia State moved the ball on Kennesaw with ease last week.
The Owls' defensive front is a big weakness, and Tennessee has run the ball really well. The Volunteers put up for 299 yards on the ground at Georgia Tech last weekend.
Quarterback Faizon Brandon has looked good thus far for the Volunteers. This is a great chance for Tennessee to get everything going before its massive home game against Texas next weekend.
Heupel’s teams being so consistently strong in the first half, along with the potential that they could shut it down late because of their opponent next week, makes me go with the first-half wager here.
Pick: Tennessee 1H Team Total Over 27.5
Confidence Rating: B
Kentucky vs Texas A&M Pick
The final score of Texas A&M's win over Arizona State was extremely misleading. The Aggies won, 48-20, but they averaged just 4.3 yards per play and struggled mightily on offense.
They threw two pick-sixes, and Arizona State’s four turnovers were the sole reason for the big scoring output.
A&M quarterback Marcel Reed has less help around him this year, and the offensive line lost six key guys from last season. The Aggies no longer dominate easily on the offensive front.
Reed is also a really inconsistent quarterback. In his career, he has 29 big-time throws and 37 turnover-worthy plays, per PFF. There's more pressure on him this season.
Kentucky’s defensive line has really impressed me so far this season. Alabama signal-caller Keelon Russell finished with -9 rushing yards last weekend.
The Tide did pile up the points in the second half, but that was due to Kentucky's turnovers. The Crimson Tide only put up 343 total yards on 5.4 yards per play.
Mike Elko’s teams haven’t been good at covering big spreads at Texas A&M. The Aggies have gone just 2-6 ATS in their eight games against FBS foes as favorites of 17 points or more.
Kentucky’s coaching staff has had the team well prepared in its first couple of games, and it can hang around here.
The large point totals from both Texas A&M and Alabama last week were inflated due to turnovers.
Pick: Texas A&M Team Total Under 33.5
Confidence Rating: B
