Living in Florida limits some of the ways I can attack the college football betting landscape, but it doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities out there.
Underdog is one of the places where I can take advantage of my college football research through player projections, and that’s what I’ll be focusing on here.
This weekend presents us with more data and below are the best options, in my opinion. For this slate, there are six numbers that stand out to me for my college football Week 3 picks on Underdog, with several that I’m comfortable pushing well beyond the current projection.
Arizona State vs. Kansas
WR Omarion Miller Higher Than 54.5 Receiving Yards
Kansas has been gashed from the slot this season, and Arizona State’s primary slot WR is Omarion Miller.
Miller and Reed Harris are the two main threats in this WR room and have combined for close to a 70% target share against the blitz, which Kansas has been using a ton.
Miller’s aDOT below is hilarious, and I expect that number to climb into the 8-10-yard range in this matchup because Arizona State should trust its offensive line to hold up.
Missouri's Donovan Olugbode and Cayden Lee each had 120 receiving yards against Kansas, and I think Miller or Harris could have a similar performance this weekend.
Pick: WR Omarion Miller Higher Than 54.5 Receiving Yards
Georgia vs. Arkansas
RB Nate Frazier Higher Than 76.5 Yards Rushing
Arkansas is allowing 2.0 yards before contact, per PFF, and the Georgia offensive line has been mauling inferior opponents.
RB Nate Frazier is averaging 12.7 yards per carry with four touchdowns on just 10 rushing attempts.
This is Georgia’s first SEC opponent, and I expect it to make a statement.
Frazier only needs 14-15 rushing attempts to clear this number, and I think he gets there in the first half.
Pick: RB Nate Frazier Higher Than 76.5 Yards Rushing
Florida State vs. Alabama
QB Keelon Russell Higher Than 258.5 Passing Yards
I think Florida State’s game plan will be to blitz Keelon Russell as much as possible and force him into mistakes, similar to what they did against SMU's Kevin Jennings.
The problem is Jennings still threw for 430 yards against them.
With those same tendencies, I think Russell should be able to clear the 260-yard mark.
WR Ryan Coleman-Williams Higher than 69.5 Receiving Yards
Florida State has allowed six players to go over 70 receiving yards in just two games this season.
Ryan Coleman-Williams is the clear alpha in Alabama’s WR room, and I expect the Tide to hunt explosive plays his way.
Picks: QB Keelon Russell Higher Than 258.5 Passing Yards & WR Ryan Coleman-Williams Higher than 69.5 Receiving Yards
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Mississippi State vs. South Carolina
QB LaNorris Sellers Higher Than 239.5 Yards Passing
Mississippi State’s pass defense hasn’t been tested to the level it will be this weekend with Kendall Briles’ system coming to town.
South Carolina QB LaNorris Sellers has looked efficient and has shown the high-end aspects of his skill set.
WR Mazeo Bennett Jr. Higher Than 36.5 Yards Receiving
The two main wide receivers in this offense have been Nyck Harbor and Mazeo Bennett Jr., and I don’t think Bennett’s receiving prop is set at the correct number.
I think it should be closer to 50 yards, and this South Carolina passing attack should find success because of how much attention Sellers’ legs and the rushing attack demand.
Picks: QB LaNorris Sellers Higher Than 239.5 Yards Passing & WR Mazeo Bennett Jr. Higher Than 36.5 Yards Receiving
