This happens every year. You start to take the college football regular season for granted. One bad window of games, and you start saying to yourself, “Just get me to the playoff.”
But then the season starts moving too quickly, and before you know it, we’re at the end of the road.
The last weekend of the season is spread out between Friday and Saturday, but that doesn’t remove the feeling of crisp fall Saturdays slipping through your fingers.
We need to cherish this last regular season weekend, and what better way to do that than by swinging for the fences with three same-game parlays that can launch you into December with a healthy bankroll.
Let's take a look at my college football props and NCAAF exotics for Week 14 on Friday, Nov. 28 and Saturday, Nov. 29.
Texas A&M vs. Texas Pick
Arch is the One Parlay
- Texas ML (+106)
- Arch Manning Anytime TD (+140)
- Arch Manning 2+ Passing TDs (+110)
- Arch Manning 275+ Passing Yards (+152)
Payout: +1035 (via FanDuel)
Arch Manning has lived a thousand lives already this season. He was a preseason Heisman favorite, then a national laughingstock, then a decent game manager. But it doesn’t stop there.
After a fantastic performance against Vanderbilt, there was a tiny shred of hope that he was actually the guy we thought he'd be after all… before he came back to earth with a thud against Georgia.
And just to complete the whipsaw season, he went out and cooked Arkansas with five touchdowns last week (four passing, one rushing).
So, for those of you keeping track at home, he has completed this exact same parlay four times on the season (SJSU, Sam Houston, Mississippi State, Arkansas).
This all sets the stage for him to write the next chapter in the Book of Manning.
If he upsets Texas A&M, not only is it a signature win in this bitter rivalry, but it also enhances Texas’ chances of making the CFP from 6%, at present, to 11%. From drawing dead to “we got a chance.”
The Longhorns would need about 10 other things to happen to make it in, sure, but for one night, they could dream big.
Now, on the field, can Texas A&M get picked apart?
South Carolina's LaNorris Sellers did it for a half, helping his Gamecocks build a 30-3 lead before an epic choke at Kyle Field. Notre Dame freshman CJ Carr, in just his second career start, threw for 293 yards against the Wrecking Crew defense. And just for good measure, let me throw in Arkansas' Taylen Green’s performance in a losing effort (341 total yards, 5 TDs).
I’ve seen quality quarterbacks take advantage of this defense often enough to know that this same-game parlay paying out north of 10-1 is too much to pass up.
Miami vs. Pitt Pick
Miami Runs It Up to Impress the Committee
- Miami -27.5 (+240)
- Malachi Toney Over 72.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
- Miami Over 400 Yards of Offense (-140)
Payout: +1364 (via FanDuel)
I’ve seen this movie before. A team is on the outside looking in, and the only thing standing between it and a playoff appearance is the opinion of a committee.
In 2014, Urban Meyer’s Ohio State team had finished the regular season 11-1. But the Buckeyes’ loss to unranked Virginia Tech was holding them back.
Florida State sat fourth overall, but the Seminoles were undefeated and seemingly untouchable as the defending national champions.
TCU, third in the committee’s pecking order, seemed safe as long as it handled Iowa State in its season finale, which was being played on Championship Weekend. TCU demolished the Cyclones, 55-3.
This left Meyer one choice in the Big Ten Championship game that night: Win and win big. He unleashed hell on Wisconsin, dropping 558 total yards of offense in a 59-0 blowout win.
He kept most of his starters in during the fourth quarter to ensure they’d add a few more touchdowns to the final tally. In the end, his ploy worked, and Ohio State snuck into the first CFP and ultimately won it.
The BCS era also produced numerous “run it up” moments before “margin of victory” was removed as a factor in the computer algorithms. Even then, some coaches believed that pollsters could be swayed by blowout wins.
The only way for Miami to climb over Notre Dame — a team it beat head-to-head — in the rankings is to impress the committee to such a degree that they consider their résumés comparable.
You know what would go a long way in doing that? Drubbing a ranked opponent on the road.
What makes this motivation even clearer is the fact that Notre Dame played this exact same Pitt team on the road two weeks ago and won by 22 points. If Miami were to, say, double that margin of victory, it would put the committee in a bit of a bind.
If the points come, the yards will take care of themselves.
And is there a hotter receiver in America than Malachi Toney? Since the calendar turned to October, he has reeled in 49 balls for 546 yards and five touchdowns. In his last four games, he’s been targeted 38 times.
He’s the alpha in this receiving room now, and Pitt’s secondary has proven to be vulnerable (49th in Passing Success Rate allowed).
Miami to Score 50 or More (+1800)
If you’ve come this far, perhaps you’re willing to come a bit further.
The Canes have scored 40-plus on four occasions this year, including 49 against nationally ranked USF.
Pitt’s defense has been gashed twice in the past month, allowing 445 yards to NC State and 37 points to Notre Dame. The Irish also missed a field goal, were stopped at the 1-yard line, and turned it over on downs at the Pitt 21-yard line.
At this price point, with this level of motivation on the table, I’m willing to throw some couch change at this one.
Vanderbilt vs. Tennessee Pick
Diego for Heisman Parlay
- Vanderbilt ML (+126)
- Diego Pavia 2+ TDs (+310)
- Diego Pavia 50+ Rushing Yards (-114)
- Diego Pavia 275+ Passing Yards (-104)
Payout: +1275 (via FanDuel)
One of my proudest moments as a content creator was dubbing the Big Bets on Campus Group of Five Deep Dive a “Pavia Podcast” in August of 2023.
I had followed Diego Pavia’s ragtag career from its humble roots at Volcano Vista High School, where he was a three-sport star.
In an alternate universe, he could have been a wrestler in the Big Ten. Instead, he chose to climb the college football mountain.
As a scrappy dual-threat signal-caller, he won a JUCO national title at New Mexico Military Institute.
He stayed in the Land of Enchantment and willed NMSU to a Quick Lane Bowl victory before he gained gambling notoriety in 2023 when his Aggies went 11-4 ATS with an outright win at Auburn.
One more rung up the ladder brought him to Vanderbilt. Turning the Commodores into a tough out would have cemented his status as a cult hero, but he was never one to settle.
He upset No. 1 Alabama and led the 'Dores to a seven-win season, the program’s highest win total in 11 years. This season, he’s built on that momentum, leading them into the top 10 before losing a shootout with Texas.
Now, here Pavia sits with an opportunity to sneak Vandy into the CFP and book himself a ticket to New York for the Heisman presentation.
He’s been an incredible heater statistically lately, too boot. He has accounted for 1,429 total yards and 14 touchdowns in the past three games.
In his career, he has had five multi-touchdown games on the ground. He has thrown for 275 or more in five games this season, including the last three in a row. And he’s averaging over 60 yards per game on the ground this fall.
If you’re looking for a comp against this Tennessee defense, try Arkansas’ Taylen Green. The Hogs’ QB1 ran for 63 yards and a score on the ground. Oklahoma's John Mateer found similar success (80 rushing yards, TD).
As for the passing, Tennessee got bombed by Georgia and Kentucky earlier this season, allowing 634 passing yards and eight total touchdowns to Gunner Stockton and Cutter Boley. If they can have their way with the Vols’ secondary, Pavia can work his magic in Neyland Stadium.
