Week 8 of the college football season is upon us, so it's time to take a look at the odds board and see what kind of value we can find before lines move this week.
After cashing his Pitt ticket last week, Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson came through with a Saturday afternoon pick in the Big 12.
Let's dive into Wilson's college football picks and NCAAF predictions for Texas Tech vs. Arizona State in Week 8 below.
Texas Tech vs Arizona State Odds
| Texas Tech Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | -390 |
| Arizona State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -110 | 48.5 -110o / -110u | +300 |
The injury to quarterback Sam Leavitt created a massive hole in Arizona State's offense heading to Utah in Week 7.
Journeyman Jeff Sims finished 18-of-38 passing for 124 yards. With an NFL rating of 55, the seventh-year college football veteran failed to complete a pass over 20 yards.
Head coach Kenny Dillingham did have a Sun Devils offense that was top-20 in creating quality drives, but now has a one-dimensional offense using man run concepts with running back Raleek Brown.
Because of its struggles, Arizona State ended Week 7 with an average third-down distance of 8.3 yards.
Arizona State will return home to host the hottest team in the Big 12. Its opponent, Texas Tech, is on pace to debut as the highest-rated team in the conference when the College Football Playoff rankings are announced in a couple of weeks.
The Red Raiders are top-15 nationally in almost every defensive category, including Line Yards and rush efficiency.
Even with Leavitt healthy, Arizona State struggled to put points on the board due to a rank of 110th in Offensive Finishing Drives.
Texas Tech comes into this game as the top defense nationally in limiting quality drives, a statistic that should create plenty of three-and-outs for Sims and company.
The market didn't adjust for Leavitt’s continued absence, as this game would be projected at Arizona State +5.5 if Leavitt were to play.
With the current market at 11 or better, oddsmakers didn't take a deep dive into the box score against Utah. The Sun Devils didn't record a single explosive drive and posted an overall yards-per-play mark of 3.3.
There's an argument to be made that the drop from Leavitt to Sims is worth more than six points, so expect this number to steam closer to two touchdowns.
Pick: Texas Tech -11 or Better
