If you want more Action Network content, be sure to add us as a preferred source on Google.
Living in Florida limits some of the ways I can attack the college football betting landscape, but it doesn’t mean there aren’t opportunities out there. Underdog is one of the places where I can take advantage of my college football research through player projections, and that’s what I’ll be focusing on here.
Week 4 brought frustrating changes in playing time, weather issues, and an Illinois defense that prioritized stopping the run over stopping Jeremiah Smith.
This weekend, we’ll be avoiding games that could be impacted by weather and leaning more heavily on the data to identify the best plays on the slate.
For this slate, there are six numbers that stand out to me, with several that I’m comfortable pushing well beyond the current projection. So, here's my college football Underdog picks for Week 5.
Florida vs Missouri Pick
Austin Simmons Higher Than 246.5 Passing Yards
Florida hasn’t held a QB under 270 passing yards in any game this season, and that includes Byrum Brown, who is not a very good passer. Simmons has gone under this number just once, and that came in a game where he had only 21 dropbacks. In this matchup, I expect him to drop back 35+ times.
In his two games against FBS opponents, he’s posted 345 and 405 air yards. Florida has allowed plenty of explosive plays downfield, and Simmons should have opportunities to find them.
Cayden Lee Higher Than 79.5 Receiving Yards
Cayden Lee’s receiving line should be in the high-80-yard range.
He came over from Ole Miss with Simmons and has posted an absurd 4.08 yards per route run on a 36% target rate.
Dallas Wilson Higher Than 47.5 Receiving Yards
Missouri’s Cover 3 rate is among the highest in the country, and I expect that to remain the same against Florida.
That makes Dallas Wilson a great play because he has dominated the targets against Cover 3 for this Florida offense.
They actively look his way because of his ability to make plays downfield, and if Missouri leaves him one-on-one out wide, he has the talent to make them pay.
Picks: Missouri QB Austin Simmons Higher Than 246.5 Passing Yards | Missouri WR Cayden Lee Higher Than 79.5 Receiving Yards| Florida WR Dallas Wilson Higher Than 47.5 Receiving Yards
Virginia vs Florida State Pick
In the first half against SMU and Alabama, Kromah had 51 and 69 rushing yards. He’s been the workhorse back for Florida State, seeing eight or nine rushing attempts in each half of both games, and I expect FSU to win in the trenches here as they did against Virginia last season.
I actually think you need Kromah to have success on the ground for Pribula to get enough passing volume to easily clear 202 yards. Pribula has only gone over this number once this season, and that came last weekend against Delaware.
However, this Florida State secondary has been atrocious and has given up multiple explosive plays through the air. FSU is going to do everything it can to force Pribula to beat them by throwing the football.
Florida State hasn’t held an opponent under 270 passing yards this season, and the QB who finished with exactly 270 was eventually benched for New Mexico State. If Kromah and FSU can control the game on the ground, Pribula should be forced into enough volume to get over this number.
Pick: Virginia QB Beau Pribula Higher Than 202.5 Passing Yards + Florida State RB Ousmane Kromah Higher Than 40.5 1st Half Rushing Yards
Be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis!
Stanford vs Wake Forest Pick
Brown is finally healthy, and in his first game against Georgia Tech, he finished with 98 receiving yards on seven targets.
This week will likely be the first time he gets above a 70% route-run rate, and as his role continues to grow, I expect this receiving line to jump into the 60-yard range as soon as next weekend.
Pick: Stanford WR Nico Brown Higher Than 41.5 Receiving Yards
