College Football Predictions, Picks: Stuckey’s Expert Bets for Missouri vs Florida, Clemson vs Miami, More

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As I do every week, I will share my favorite betting spots for Saturday's college football card. And, oh boy, do we have one helluva slate for Week 5.

Ultimately, my primary goal here is to discuss a few key angles, notable matchups, regression signals and injury situations for each game, hopefully helping you make more informed wagers.

I write most of these up after betting them, and I log them in the Action App immediately, so make sure you're following along there for plays early in the week that may move. For reference, I'll note what I'd still play each wager to and purposefully waited on most this week until they were more widely available.

Can't complain with back-to-back 7-2 weeks, but it's onto the next as always.

Looking ahead to this weekend, I have highlighted my 11 favorite Week 5 spots with a heavy focus on some strength of schedule disparities. Keep in mind I obviously won't hit 70% all season, so, as always, bet responsibly. There will be a rough week or two as always.

• 2022-25: 223-178-3 (55.6%)
• 2026: 22-9-1 (71.0%)
• Overall: 245-187-4 (56.7%)

Let's dive into my college football predictions and NCAAF picks for Week 5.

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College Football Predictions, Picks

Game	Time (ET)	Pick
	12 p.m.	SMU -20.5
	3:30 p.m.	Missouri +6
	4 p.m.	Maryland +15
	4:15 p.m.	South Carolina -2.5
	7 p.m.	TCU +6.5
	7 p.m.	Texas A&M -13.5
	7:30 p.m.	Clemson +17.5
	7:30 p.m.	Colorado +13.5
	7:30 p.m.	Temple +6.5
	7:30 p.m.	Louisiana Tech +2
	11 p.m.	Arizona -7

SMU -20.5 vs. Boston College

12 p.m. ET ⋅ The CW

SMU actually showed up as a buy-low candidate this week following a number of unlucky results.

The Mustangs really should've beaten Florida State by three-plus touchdowns in a game where they just continuously shot themselves in the foot.

They also got unlucky in a road loss at Louisville in a game they finished with a 479-442 yards advantage but just couldn't overcome a -3 turnover margin in addition to a pair of failed fourth-down attempts.

Even last week against Missouri State, SMU only won by 10 despite holding a whopping 592-239 yardage edge. The bounces will eventually break their way.

Meanwhile, Boston College has a pair of misleading covers against P4 schools sandwiched in between an ugly six-point home win over Maine.

Including fourth-down stops, Rutgers (with a backup quarterback) turned the ball over six times in BC territory. And last week in a close loss to Virginia Tech, the teams basically played in a monsoon, so you can almost throw out that result completely.

From a matchup perspective, Kevin Jennings should shred this BC defense that won't generate any pressure, which is where Jennings has historically run into problems.

And on the other side of the ball, you need to hit big plays through the air against this SMU secondary. However, BC (129th in Pass EPA) is completely incapable of doing that with quarterback Mason McKenzie sporting a 2:8 big-time throw-to-turnover-worthy play ratio on the year.

The Eagles' offense almost completely relies on quarterback Mason McKenzie's running ability. He leads the team in rushing attempts with 74 (29 more than running back Evan Dickens) and yards with 363.

Fortunately for SMU, it has already faced two very mobile quarterbacks in Ashton Daniels and Lincoln Kienholz, which will serve as valuable prep for McKenzie. They have the linebackers to spy him, which should completely neuter the BC offense.

Once SMU jumps out to a big lead here, I just don't see how BC can keep up in a game that should have plenty of possessions for SMU to spread its wings.

Pick: SMU -20.5 (Play to -21)

Missouri +6 vs. Florida

3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC

Last week, nobody wanted to bet Florida in one of the best situational spots of the entire season. I loved the Gators last week and had them as a top-10 team prior to that victory (and still do).

Now, one week later, everybody is lining up to back Florida in a brutal situational spot. That's usually my sign to sell high, especially since I show value on the home 'dog here.

Missouri will have to play more zone here and rely on its defensive line to get home on Aaron Philo.

It will be strength-on-strength when Florida has the ball, as I have been very impressed by the Missouri defense despite plenty of offseason turnover. I actually have the Tigers' D as a top-15 unit adjusting for opponent so far this season. They seem to have hit on a lot of their additions.

On the other side of the ball, it will be weakness-on-weakness in terms of the Missouri rushing attack. The Tigers really miss Ahmad Hardy, who will remain out with an injury. Jamal Roberts just doesn't provide as much pop, especially after contact.

However, this might be a week where Missouri can get its ground game going a bit against a Florida defense (seventh percentile in Line Yards) that has struggled in that department (122nd EPA Per Rush allowed).

That will help provide some balance to an offense that needs it.

Mizzou quarterback Austin Simmons has all of the talent in the world, and this is a very explosive wide receiver room that can exploit a vulnerable Florida secondary that ranks outside the top 100 in EPA allowed.

He should find plenty of success in the intermediate range, which is where you want to attack a Brad White defense.

The Florida defense has lived off the Havoc it has created, primarily with its potent edge rushers.

However, Missouri's tackles have performed at a very high level in pass protection, so the Tigers can provide much more resistance than Auburn's atrocious offensive line and Ole Miss' struggling tackles could.

Look, I'm not happy about backing Simmons (who is overdue for some turnovers) and offensive coordinator Chip Lindsey against Buster Faulkner and this powerhouse Florida offense. But I have to do it at this price in this spot.

Pick: Missouri +6 (Play to +4.5)

Maryland +15 at Nebraska

4 p.m. ET ⋅ FS1

This is a simple buy-low/sell-high spot on a number I project under two touchdowns.

It's hard to believe the market hasn't bottomed out on Maryland following back-to-back home losses, with the most recent coming in embarrassing fashion by 51 points vs. UCLA.

Historically, I like to buy low on teams following bad home losses when they hit the road. That can sometimes be the best form of medicine.

Additionally, we get to sell high on Nebraska following a 4-0 start to the season.

Yes, the Cornhuskers (who I remain high on) have looked impressive, but it has come against a ridiculously favorable schedule (125th compared to Maryland's 49th) that really only featured one somewhat decent opponent in Michigan State, which was extremely beat up.

The Huskers also host Indiana next week and then head out on the road to take on Oregon, so they could get caught looking past a Maryland team they just saw get run off its own field.

Plus, with the most difficult portion of its schedule coming up, I assume Matt Rhule has to have a major focus on keeping this group healthy, especially with a couple of his most important skill-position players already dealing with injuries.

As a result, I doubt he'll really look to push it to the limit with a late lead, which could open up the backdoor if needed.

It's not the best matchup for the Terps, who simply can't run the ball, which is ideally how you want to attack this Nebraska defense.

However, they're apparently making some changes on offense this week, which could catch the Huskers (who maybe spent some of this week preparing for Indiana/Oregon) off guard.

I'm still a believer in quarterback Malik Washington, who can do enough to keep the Terps within this inflated number.

Maybe the players have quit on Mike Locksley, but I'll pay to find out.

Pick: Maryland +15 (Play to 14.5)

South Carolina -2.5 vs. Kentucky

4:15 p.m. ET ⋅ SEC Network

The sky is falling in Columbia! It's time to fire Shane Beamer and bet against South Carolina moving forward.

That seems to be the common sentiment at the moment, so the Gamecocks certainly piqued my interest as a potential buy-low candidate this week.

The look-ahead line sat at -7 prior to last week's results. That was probably a bit too high, but we then saw it drop all the way down below three because South Carolina got blown out at Alabama (mind you, the Tide also blew out Kentucky in Lexington) and Kentucky barely covered vs. a South Alabama squad playing with its backup quarterback?

That's too much of an overcorrection, in my opinion.

And while it hasn't been pretty over the past two weeks, South Carolina did lose to a pair of top-20 teams in Mississippi State and Alabama, who have two of the highest-performing quarterbacks in the country at the moment.

The Kentucky passing attack is nowhere close to as potent as either of those high-flying offenses, so the South Carolina defense should look much more competent this week even without the newly suspended Dylan Stewart, who hasn't really contributed anything this season anyway.

Maybe South Carolina is on quit watch.

I've heard that hypothesis recently (another usually strong buy signal), but I expect the Gamecocks to show up at home this week against a Kentucky team that may be feeling itself a bit too much at the moment, with a huge matchup vs. LSU next week they may get caught peaking ahead to.

Plus, the South Carolina ground game (which ranks in the top 15 in both EPA and Success Rate) should cook against a Wildcat defense that has really struggled to contain opposing ground games (84th in Success Rate).

Matt Fuller and LaNorris Sellers are both averaging 6.8 yards per carry running behind an offensive line that's getting great push up front.

Sellers has been underwhelming as a passer so far this season, but this could very well mark his low point in a brand-new offense.

The Cocks can lean on the run to set up some of the pass in a matchup where its defense won't get overwhelmed like the previous two games. I'm buying low.

Pick: South Carolina -2.5 (Play to -3)

TCU +6.5 vs. BYU

7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN

I have had this spot circled since the summer, as I tend to fancy home pups who got embarrassed on the road against their opponent in the previous season.

Well, TCU certainly fits that bill. The Cougars absolutely laid a beat down (44-13) last year in Provo. I'm sure this very experienced Frogs bunch has not forgotten.

TCU has certainly not lived up to some of the preseason hype so far, having already lost two games as a favorite against UNC and UCF.

However, there's still reason for optimism. The Horned Frogs did install a brand-new offensive scheme this summer under new coordinator Gordon Sammis, so it's no surprise to see some early-season inconsistencies.

I'm still very bullish on the hire and believe the offense will continue to improve on a weekly basis, especially with a now fully healthy wide receiver room.

Getting stud No. 1 wideout Jordan Dwyer back last week substantially raises the ceiling of this unit, especially since quarterback Jaden Craig's biggest strength is his ability to throw the deep ball. Last season on 20-plus yard throws, Craig had a sparkling 29:3 big-time throw-to-turnover-worthy play ratio.

Yes, that came against FCS competition at Harvard, but he's off to a great start in that department this season despite some early-season wide receiver injuries in a new offense.

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To date, Craig actually leads the nation in big-time throws on deep passes with 10 (with only one turnover-worthy play).

TCU's defense also profiles as a much stiffer run-stopping unit, which is critical against BYU's potent rushing attack, led by LJ Martin and the elusive Bear Bachmeier.

I'm still not sold on the Cougars' passing attack, and now they will have to deal with the loss of stud starting right tackle Andrew Gentry.

This looks like a prime buy-low/sell-high spot on a conference home 'dog I show value on in a game that won't be played with much pace.

BYU has looked good so far this season, but it has certainly benefited from a few bounces and opponent injuries across a very favorable schedule.

Plus, the Cougars have only really played one quality opponent in Arizona, which looked like the better team for most of that contest.

I expect this one to go right down to the wire.

Pick: TCU +6.5 (Play to +6)

Texas A&M -13.5 vs. Arkansas

7 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN2

Coming into the season, I was a major seller of Texas A&M, with its under 8.5 wins being my favorite win total this summer. I just thought the losses in the trenches on both sides of the ball would lead to a major decline in production.

Well, it's been even uglier than I had anticipated, with the Aggies losing outright as a 17-point home favorite to Kentucky, then following that up with an absolute stinker in a 35-6 loss at LSU.

With a rebuilt offensive line failing to pave the way for the run, Marcel Reed has predictably struggled in known passing situations.

He simply needs a complementary rushing attack to set up play-action where he thrives (17 TDs to one INT last season when throwing with play-action).

Well, similar to its matchup vs. Missouri State (a 50-0 victory), Texas A&M can just completely gash the Razorbacks on the ground. So far this season, Arkansas ranks in the bottom 10 nationally in both Rush EPA allowed and Success Rate allowed.

The Hogs have also been very vulnerable against mobile quarterbacks and play-action, which all sets up beautifully for a bounce-back performance from Reed.

Yes, Arkansas looked more competent last week in an easy cover vs. Tulsa, but the Golden Hurricane started a backup quarterback in a tough spot.

This is still a very bad Hogs team that simply isn't built to play from behind. I trust Mike Elko to have his team ready, especially on defense, where the Aggies basically just need to focus on taking away wide receiver Chris Marshall.

If they can do that, I'm not sure how Arkansas (which can't run the ball at all) keeps this within two scores against an Aggies squad that's probably itching to flex a little bit in front of a home crowd that can't be happy with the start to this season.

I was leading the fire sale of this Aggies bunch in the offseason, but I believe the market has sold Texas A&M a bit too much.

Hopefully, wide receiver Mario Craver (questionable) is good to go health-wise, but even if not, the Aggies can still win this going away if they show up with a focused effort.

Pick: Texas A&M -13.5 (Play to -14)

Clemson +17.5 vs. Miami

7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ABC

Since getting embarrassed at LSU in the opener, Clemson has figured some things out on both sides of the ball during its three-game winning streak.

The secondary has played particularly well, with the Tigers now ranking in the top 15 in both EPA allowed and Success Rate allowed. That's critical against the potent Miami passing attack, led by Darian Mensah and Malachi Toney.

The Clemson run defense remains a bit vulnerable, but you want this Miami offense running the ball as much as possible. The Hurricanes still have Mark Fletcher toting the rock, but the run offense has been much less efficient than when Mensah drops back.

The Clemson offense is still a major work in progress even after making a quarterback change.

True freshman Tait Reynolds has struggled mightily as a passer, but he has at least helped unlock the rushing attack, which Clemson has relied on in recent weeks.

The wide receiver room still oozes with talent, so we'll see if Reynolds can connect on a deep shot or two against a wounded Miami secondary.

That's all it might take in what I project as a lower-scoring game, which obviously makes the large home underdog more appealing.

Miami has also played a laughable schedule to date (124th vs. Clemson's 17th strength of schedule) with a pair of scrimmages against Central Michigan and Florida A&M.

And if a few bounces and calls didn't go against Wake Forest in the second half, that game could have gotten very dicey late.

Plus, Mario Cristobal teams have struggled in the past as large favorites, as his teams can overlook overmatched opponents, while he also tends to get a bit too conservative with leads at times.

Simply put, I just can't get to this number, especially when you account for the injuries Miami is dealing with on both sides of the ball.

I believe Clemson can ugly this game up in front of what should be a raucous atmosphere at night in Death Valley.

And there's a chance we see some inclement weather, which would obviously provide a boost to the home team that has the exponentially worse passing attack.

I don't think the Tigers have the offensive firepower to threaten Miami, but they can keep this within two scores as long as they don't get too far behind early on.

Pick: Clemson +17.5 (Play to +17)

Colorado +13.5 vs. Texas Tech

7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX

This looks like a perfect time to buy low on the Buffs, who come back to Boulder for their first home game of the season vs. an FBS foe following two straight road losses by a combined 44 points.

Colorado will turn to a new starting quarterback in Isaac Wilson, who relieved the now-benched JuJu Lewis in the second half last week.

Wilson is certainly not a world beater, but he at least will throw the ball downfield (25% higher aDOT than Lewis, who just seemed afraid to take any chances).

If you remove the Weber State game, Lewis had no big-time throws to seven turnover-worthy plays. That's less than ideal.

Colorado does have some nice weapons on the outside, led by Joseph Williams, and offensive coordinator Brennan Marion seems to be figuring out the run game in his Go-Go offense, which usually takes a few games to get rolling in the first year of installation.

I also like some of the additions Colorado made on the defense in the offseason. It would significantly benefit from any help from the offense.

With that said, this is more about fading Texas Tech, which I believe the market has soured out enough on.

The Red Raiders finally did get a cover last week against Sam Houston by a half-point, but it took two pick-sixes and a miraculous touchdown late to get there.

Prior to that victory, they were a couple of bounces away from losing to both Oregon State and Houston.

The offense just doesn't have the same explosiveness, and Will Hammond (who still might not be 100%) has been extremely underwhelming at quarterback. On the season, he has two big-time throws to seven turnover-worthy plays when kept clean.

Additionally, I expected a drop-off on defense after Tech saw a whopping six players on that side of the ball get drafted, including four along the defensive line. However, I didn't think it would look this poor.

The pass rush just isn't anywhere close to as potent, which has exposed some issues in the secondary.

Last year, Texas Tech led the nation in yards per play allowed at 3.9. That number has plummeted to 5.5 yards so far this season, which ranks outside the top 70.

Colorado can hang around in this game at home, where it has historically played much better, especially under head coach Deion Sanders. Meanwhile, Texas Tech hasn't traveled all that effectively under head coach Joey McGuire in recent seasons.

Pick: Colorado +13.5 (Play to +13)

Temple +6.5 at USF

7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPNU

I'm going back to the well with another South Florida fade after lowly Bowling Green got an easy cover for us last week.

I'd argue South Florida comes into this week as one of the more overrated teams in the nation. Yes, the Bulls own a perfect 4-0 record, but they easily could have lost all three of their games vs. FBS foes:

• outgained, 381-208, by FIU, which went 3-of-7 on fourth downs
• trailed Army by 10 with a few minutes to go before scoring a pair of late touchdowns, including one on fourth down in the final seconds
• Bowling Green led, 6-0, in the fourth quarter last week and finished with only seven fewer yards (214-207)

It has not looked pretty despite an extremely favorable schedule.

Conversely, Temple comes into this game with a 1-3 record but easily could have two more wins.

Toledo somehow pulled off a miraculous win in overtime after facing fourth-and-8 from its own 19-yard line, trailing by 14 with two minutes to go. That will go down as one of the most improbable wins of the entire season.

The Owls also lost last week by four against Army in a game they dominated statistically (459-315 yardage edge) despite finding themselves in a brutal situational spot with the Knights coming off a bye and Temple playing on a short week against a unique offense following a heartbreaking road loss.

Temple has also played the much more difficult schedule (51st vs. 169th, per Sagarin) so far this season.

The Owls also own a massive coaching edge on the sidelines with K.C. Keeler, who has won multiple FCS national titles, vs. Brian Hartline, who will coach just his fifth career game. The Owls will also benefit from an extra day of rest and prep here.

USF is playing much slower this season, and the offense completely lacks explosiveness, which makes it much more difficult to build margin in the favorite role. Temple should have a very good chance of pulling off this upset.

For what it's worth, I haven't bet this game yet since I'm waiting to see if a +7 pops first.

Pick: Temple +6.5 (Play to +6)

Louisiana Tech +2 vs. Army

7:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+

I just mentioned Army's fortunate victory over Temple last week in a dream situational spot.

Well, the opposite holds true this week for the Black Knights, who find themselves in a much more disadvantageous spot this week, heading out on the road for a second straight game in a nonconference game against a Louisiana Tech team that had a bye last week.

The Bulldogs not only have extra time to prepare for Army's unique offensive scheme, but they should also benefit from facing Army two years ago in a bowl game.

Louisiana Tech accepted that bowl invite very late in the process after Marshall had to pull out due to roster limitations once Charles Huff darted for Southern Miss.

As a result, the Bulldogs ended up playing an abundance of defensive backups who didn't really see any action throughout the regular season. As you might imagine, it didn't look pretty, but a handful of those players are now primary contributors for this underrated LA Tech defense. That experience should pay dividends here.

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This matchup also marks one of the largest strength of schedule disparities on the Week 5 slate.

Louisiana Tech has played the sixth-toughest schedule in the country (with road games at Baylor and LSU in a pair of covers), per Sagarin, while Army comes in at 126th.

The Bulldogs could also be close to full strength with the potential return of starting quarterback Blake Baker and one of its best defensive linemen from injury.

Despite the brutal schedule, Louisiana Tech rates very highly in Defensive Line Yards, which is always a positive signal when facing Army. Meanwhile, the Army defense hasn't done anything very well outside of limiting explosive plays.

Louisiana Tech shouldn't have any issues moving the ball against a defense that ranks 135th in Success Rate allowed despite facing an easy schedule and benefiting from the best starting field position in the country.

Pick: Louisiana Tech +2 (Play to PK)

Arizona -7 vs. Cincinnati

11 p.m. ET ⋅ FOX

The market disagrees with me on this one, but I'm selling high on the undefeated Bearcats, who will travel out west (for a very late kick, which has historically been a detriment to Eastern Time Zone teams) for their first road game of the season.

Yes, Cincy has started out 4-0, but it has been far from straightforward despite facing a very favorable schedule to start the season (118th, per Sagarin).

In the opener, the Bearcats beat lowly Boston College by 19 but were actually outgained, 388-339. The Eagles just couldn't get out of their own way with a pair of failed fourth-down attempts and a -2 turnover margin.

Cincinnati also had one of the most improbable comebacks of the season vs. Miami (OH). The RedHawks (who are way down this year) led by 21 at the half before completely imploding in the second half with two giveaways and a pair of missed field goals.

Cincy did have an impressive four-point victory over Kansas State last week, although the Wildcats finished with more yards and led at half.

Bottom line, they're a few bounces away from a 2-2 record, in which case this line would sit closer to 10, in my opinion.

The Bearcats do have a very potent rushing attack behind one of the league's best offensive lines, but Arizona's defense is much stronger against the run.

After losing five defensive backs to the NFL, the Wildcats are vulnerable on the back end, but I don't think Cincy has the pieces in the passing game to fully take advantage.

On the other side of the ball, Cincy has plenty of holes on defense that Noah Fifita can exploit, especially if receiver Giovanni Richardson can return from injury (I expect him to suit up).

He got hurt early in Arizona's close loss at BYU after hauling in five catches in the first quarter. If he doesn't go down with an injury, Arizona would have had a very good chance of pulling off that road upset in a game that still flipped on a late failed fourth-down attempt deep in BYU territory by an inch or two.

I think we're getting the 0-4 ATS Wildcats on the cheap here in a favorable situational spot and on-field matchup.

Pick: Arizona -7 or Better

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