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Somehow, it's already Week 5 of the college football season.
We have a couple of top-20 matchups on deck this week, along with a number of other intriguing matchups in the Big Ten and Big 12.
It all starts on Friday night, when the Northwestern Wildcats host a Penn State Nittany Lions team looking to bounce back from their first loss of the season
On Saturday, we'll head to Starkville, where the No. 16 Mississippi State Bulldogs host the No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide in another ranked SEC clash.
Then, we'll make our way to Iowa City, where the No. 14 Iowa Hawkeyes welcome the No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes to Kinnick Stadium in a top-15 Big Ten tilt.
After that, the No. 18 USC Trojans host a former Pac-12 rival in Washington in Los Angeles.
To wrap things up, we'll stay for some West Coast action in the Big 12, as the Arizona Wildcats meet the Cincinnati Bearcats at 11 p.m. ET.
With so much to get to, let's dive into my college football picks and NCAAF predictions for the Week 5 games on Saturday, October 3.
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College Football Picks, Predictions
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson is targeting from this week's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | Friday, 8 p.m. | |
  | 12 p.m. | |
  | 3:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 11 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Penn State vs Northwestern Pick
Penn State Nittany Lions
Head coach Matt Campbell had one of the easiest schedules for the Nittany Lions heading into Week 4. A devastating loss to Wisconsin saw a 17-7 halftime lead evaporate after producing just a field goal in the second half.
The Badgers dominated in overall yards per play, outgaining the Nittany Lions by nearly two yards per play.
The loss of star wide receiver Koby Howard left quarterback Rocco Becht without answers in the passing game. Penn State generated a low 23% Success Rate on 31 passing attempts, completing just one pass over 20 yards.
Defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn has produced one of the best units in FBS against the pass, producing the top overall coverage grade, per PFF.
The Nittany Lions held the Badgers to just 36% of available yards and a 30% Success Rate on passing downs, both under the national average.
Limiting methodical drives has been the calling card for the defense, although teams with explosiveness on the ground have created issues for the Nittany Lions. Penn State has allowed five different rushing gains over 50 yards this season.
Northwestern Wildcats
A surprising cover against Indiana could be linked to execution in the passing game.
Quarterback Aidan Chiles continues to learn Chip Kelly's offensive requirements, connecting on 22-of-29 passing attempts for two touchdowns.
Northwestern converted half of its third- and fourth-down attempts with an average distance to go of 9.9 yards against the Hoosiers.
Slot receiver Luke Dehnicke doubled his season target share as a home-run hitter in the passing game, while Chiles' safety blanket in the red zone came in the form of wideout Griffin Wilde.
Head coach David Braun has plenty of work to do regarding the defense. The Wildcats rank dead last in producing a pass rush and sit bottom-10 in Line Yards.
Northwestern elects to play quarters zone coverage, giving up the middle of the field and opting to make stops in scoring position. Opponents have marched up and down the field, but Northwestern ranks 17th in Defensive Finishing Drives thanks to 19 opponent drives crossing the 40-yard line with an average of 2.4 points per trip.
The Wildcats have allowed the third-fewest red-zone touchdowns with four on the season.
Penn State vs Northwestern Prediction
The star of the game might not be either team, but rather the grand opening of Ryan Field in Chicago. There are significant changes in the elements of Northwestern home games, as the playing surface has been lowered to 21 feet below ground level.
Many media tours of the stadium noted that with wind gusts at 20 MPH in Evanston, but the wind wasn't a factor from field level. Similar to Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, the roof and open outer perimeter allow the wrinkles of gusts to smooth out before hitting the field.
From an investment perspective, totals should be treated differently for Northwestern home games with a slight upward trajectory in scoring.
The biggest question comes in Northwestern's ability to create explosive rushes against Penn State's defense. The Wildcats have notched only one rush that exceeded 30 yards this season, signaling that Chiles' mobility in the passing game will be the plan of attack.
Lynn's defense lines up in Cover 3 and Cover 1 zone, both of which Chiles has dominated this season. Northwestern has a 56% Success Rate on 90 offensive snaps against those coverages, averaging a big play on 21% of attempts.
Penn State will counter with a successful rushing attack behind James Peoples, Carson Hansen and Quinton Martin Jr.
Campbell's offense has logged more than 80 rushing attempts using inside and outside zone read, a run concept Northwestern has severely struggled to defend. The Wildcats own a low 41% Success Rate against zone read, a number that drops to 35% against Campbell's base personnel of 12.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for Penn State to be favored by a field goal, aligning with the current market offering. A projected total of 48.5 shows there's a small advantage against a sinking number of 45.
Penn State will have an advantage on the ground with 12 personnel and zone read, while Chiles and Northwestern will look to expose a Nittany Lions defense that has given up numerous explosive runs.
Look for both teams to create methodical drives and enough scoring opportunities.
Pick: Over 45.5
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Alabama vs Mississippi State Pick
Alabama Crimson Tide
The Alabama offense blazed through the September schedule, scoring at least 45 points in each contest.
Despite mid-FBS numbers in run and pass blocking on the offensive line, the Crimson Tide offense ranks in the top 25 in Rushing Success Rate and methodical drives.
The biggest driver of points under quarterback Keelon Russell is the ability to generate touchdowns instead of field goals. In 28 offensive possessions that crossed the opponent's 40-yard line, Alabama is averaging 5.4 points per trip.
On the other side of the ball, defensive coordinator Kane Wommack has also fielded a highly efficient stop unit. Alabama ranks top-25 in Success Rate allowed, manhandling the trench through four games with a top-10 rank in Line Yards.
Havoc has returned to Tuscaloosa, as the Crimson Tide defenders sit 33rd nationally in Havoc and come in top-30 in limiting opponent pass EPA.
The negatives on defense come in tackling and Finishing Drives, both outside the top 90 among FBS teams.
Mississippi State Bulldogs
Quarterback Kamario Taylor is on a meteoric rise through college football's first quarter of the season. The sophomore has tripled his passing touchdown output, sitting at 14 with only two interceptions.
Taylor has also been fantastic on the ground, adding more than 200 rushing yards with nearly half coming on designed run calls.
The remainder of the offense has flourished with the success of the Heisman hopeful quarterback, as the potent rushing attack is led by Fluff Bothwell, who averages four yards after first contact.
In the passing game, slot receiver Anthony Evans III has 20 more targets than any other player this season, averaging more than three yards per route run.
The offense remains electric under head coach Jeff Lebby, a much-needed factor for a defense that continues its slow rise in each statistical category.
Coordinator Zach Arnett returned the 3-3-5 to Starkville and has been an improvement over previous coordinators since his time as head coach. Arnett has improved coverage, tackling and opponent rush EPA numbers since his return.
Although there has been improvement, the pass rush has been virtually nonexistent, with an opponent Quality Drive rank of 84th.
Opponents are driving the field with pass explosives because quarterbacks have so much time in the pocket, a must-watch against Alabama.
Alabama vs Mississippi State Prediction
This game will have no shortage of fireworks between two dual-threat quarterbacks who can make a case for a Heisman vote.
Russell shouldn't experience pressure in the pocket from the Mississippi State defense, as the quarterback's season average of 3.1 seconds to throw will be comfortable in Starkville.
Alabama has been elite in generating both methodical drives and explosive drives, and converting scoring opportunities into touchdowns.
The Bulldogs' struggle to stop inside zone this season, with a 39% success rate, should keep the Crimson Tide moving on offense.
The same advantages exist for Mississippi State on the offensive side of the ball. Alabama has been lukewarm in defending outside zone, the Bulldogs' primary run concept.
Taylor should also have no problem reading the Cover 3 preference from the Alabama secondary. Mississippi State has a 54% Success Rate against Cover 3, a look that should allow Taylor to target Evans in shorter passing routes.
The Bulldogs will have all the advantages once targets hit the ground running, as Alabama ranks 94th in tackle grading.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings place Alabama as a 5-point favorite, but the offensive advantages are gratuitous for both teams.
Mississippi State's ability to go uptempo, with top-25 ranks in Quality Drives and Finishing Drives, will take advantage of an Alabama defense that sits outside the top 100 in Defensive Finishing Drives.
Mississippi State's wide advantage in SP+ Special Teams could give the Bulldogs a shot to pull off the upset.
Pick: Mississippi State +6 or Better
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Ohio State vs Iowa Pick
Ohio State Buckeyes
Ryan Day is no stranger to Iowa City. In the head coach's first season as offensive coordinator at Ohio State, the Buckeyes traveled to Kinnick Stadium for one of the biggest blowouts in Iowa history.
Day expressed feelings of horror at Big Ten Media Days this past summer, as Ohio State hasn't visited Iowa since that 55-24 loss in 2017. Nearly a decade later, Ohio State will face an Iowa team coming off a miracle finish against Michigan.
The connection between quarterback Julian Sayin and wide receiver Jeremiah Smith has been elite in 2026.
Coming in as the second-most efficient passing attack in the nation, Sayin has committed just one turnover-worthy play this season despite an uptick in drops and pressure rate.
Smith is improving on his first two seasons as well, averaging the highest average depth of target and highest contested catch rate of his career.
On the other side of the ball, the Buckeyes defense has struggled against the run in Year 2 under coordinator Matt Patricia. Ohio State ranks 100th in defensive rush efficiency and outside the top 60 in opponent Line Yards and Stuff Rate.
Offenses electing to run man, counter or inside zone are finding success against the Buckeyes' defensive front.
However, Ohio State's defense is having no issues defending the pass against a top-25 strength of schedule. The Buckeyes rank top-25 in Havoc, as a huge chunk of success has come from 26 pass breakups through four games.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa secured a last-second victory over Michigan despite a 7% post-game win expectancy.
The Hawkeyes are firing on all cylinders in the most Iowa way possible, ranking 16th in SP+ Special Teams, along with a Phil Parker defense that sits top-10 in opponent Quality Drives and Defensive Finishing Drives.
The 4-2-5 personnel is powered by linebacker Cam Buffington, who's nearly doubling every other player in tackles.
Interior defensive lineman Bryce Hawthorne has also produced eight pressures, giving Iowa elements of a top-20 pass rush and ranking in opponent rush efficiency.
The Iowa offense has generated the second-most 20-yard rushes in the country while facing the Iowa State and Michigan defenses. The downside is that the rush explosives from Kamari Moulton, Braeden Jackson, Xavier Williams and Nathan McNeil all came against the defenses of Northern Iowa and Northern Illinois.
The Hawkeyes' rushing attack lives on outside zone, producing a high 58% Success Rate with a positive EPA.
Iowa's passing attack has been impotent so far this season, ranking 136th in Pass EPA.
Quarterback Hank Brown has yet to throw an interception, but two turnover-worthy plays have been logged against an average depth of target under nine yards.
The 50-50 balls have also not favored Iowa's passing attack, as pass-catchers Tony Diaz, DJ Vonnahme and Evan James have combined to haul in just 5-of-15 contested catches.
Ohio State vs Iowa Prediction
Iowa's ability to move the ball on offense will boil down to success with outside zone. The Hawkeyes are using different personnel, but the run concept accounts for more than 85% of Iowa's rushing attempts.
That may translate to a struggle against the Buckeyes, who have a 66% Success Rate against outside zone while producing nearly a negative half-point of EPA against the concept.
Another edge for Ohio State will come in the passing game with Sayin. The Buckeyes will see quarters coverage with a small mix of Cover 3 from the Hawkeyes defense.
Sayin has been elite against quarters coverage dating back to 2025. Ohio State has overperformed against quarters since the beginning of last season, averaging a 66% Success Rate and a positive EPA of nearly a half-point on each attempt.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for the Buckeyes to be favored by 17 points, so any number at two touchdowns or less is a wager on Ohio State.
Pick: Ohio State -14 or Better
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Washington vs USC Pick
Washington Huskies
The Washington offense continues to struggle for answers after a loss to Minnesota as a double-digit home favorite. The Huskies were held without a methodical drive against the Gophers, as the offensive line fell to 110th in Line Yards.
Quarterback Demond Williams has the most carries on the season at 32, but only nine have come from designed calls.
The running back room has been dull, as Brian Bonner Jr. and Trey Cooley each average two yards or fewer after first contact. The struggles have led to a passing attack that has fallen to 117th in EPA.
There could be additional issues on the defensive side of the ball, as lukewarm numbers come against a strength-of-schedule rank of 131st.
The Huskies grade mid-FBS in tackling and sit outside the top 50 in passing down Success Rate allowed. Defensive coordinator Ryan Walters has had success at previous stops with the 3-3-5, replicating that with a top-30 rank in EPA.
The biggest warning may come in the methodical drives department, as Washington ranks 44th in Quality Drives allowed against the offenses of Minnesota, Eastern Washington, Utah State and Washington State.
USC Trojans
USC could use a get-healthy game, similar to Oregon's beatdown of Portland State in Week 3.
The Trojans are under heavy fire for a lackluster 2026 that includes a one-possession victory over Rutgers and an embarrassing defensive effort in the second half against Oregon in Week 4.
Southern California has seen a stark contrast since last season, going from D'Anton Lynn at defensive coordinator to Gary Patterson. The Trojans rank bottom-10 in Havoc, tackling and opponent Pass EPA.
The offense has shown cracks in head coach Lincoln Riley's system as well, which was always a possibility with true freshmen expected to contribute.
Quarterback Jayden Maiava's top three targets — Trent Mosley, Mark Bowman and Kayden Dixon-Wyatt — are all freshmen. The trio has been electric from a yards-per-route-run perspective and haven't recorded a drop through the month of September.
Controlling the line of scrimmage and creating explosives have dipped USC's number in available yards. Maiava has seen a similar drop in his passing numbers, averaging the lowest depth of target and big-time throw rate of his career.
Washington vs USC Prediction
The most interesting battle of Week 5 may come down to the incompetence of the Washington offense against the struggling USC defense.
Both units have led their teams to embarrassing losses.
The Huskies run a heavy amount of both inside and outside zone, a run concept the USC defense has a high Success Rate against at 59%.
Williams should find success in scrambles and busted plays against the Trojans defense, but nothing in the zone coverage numbers suggests Washington can create explosives from the pocket.
Conversely, Maiava has dominated Cover 3 this season to the tune of a 61% Success Rate with a big play on one of every four attempts.
Another edge for USC comes in the rushing attack, using a heavy amount of assignment-based run concepts. The Trojans have run man schemes on 64 snaps this season behind King Miller, who's averaging 3.6 yards after first contact while forcing 22 missed tackles.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for USC to be an 11.5-point favorite, giving a slight investment nod to the Trojans. From run concepts and coverage looks, USC holds the advantage on both offense and defense.
Look to back the Trojans as home favorites despite the negative press following Riley in every interview. USC has the advantage in designed calls, which should outlast a Washington offense based on busted plays.
Pick: USC -9.5 or Better
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Cincinnati vs Arizona Pick
Cincinnati Bearcats
Trailing by a touchdown at halftime in Week 4, Cincinnati leaned into the ground game to knock off Kansas State in Big 12 play.
The Bearcats have a strong rushing attack on 62% of snaps, using a heavy amount of outside zone, with running back Gi'Bran Payne and quarterback JC French IV.
All statistical indicators point to an effective ground game with a top-30 rank in Rushing Success Rate, Line Yards and Stuff Rate. Led by Payne's 4.4 yards after first contact, the Cincinnati ground game ranks top-10 nationally in Rush EPA.
The biggest headache for head coach Scott Satterfield is the defense, ranking in the bottom 10 in creating a pass rush and Rushing Success Rate allowed. Cincinnati has been hammered by opponents using any personnel associated with inside zone.
The defensive line has not owned the line of scrimmage in any game, and opponents in scoring position have generated plenty of touchdowns.
Oddly enough, the Bearcats are one of the better tackling teams at the second level and have a top-30 rank in preventing explosive rushes.
Cornerback Antwan Peek Jr., along with linebackers Jonathan Thompson and Simeon Coleman, lead in tackles and have a combined number of "stops" at 30.
Arizona Wildcats
Cincinnati wasn't the only team needing a second-half comeback in Week 4, as Arizona trailed Washington State entering halftime.
The Wildcats outscored the Cougars, 20-7, in the second half, as its strong passing down Success Rate led to 8.5 yards per play on the game.
Fifth-year senior Noah Fifita is having his most elite season as a passer, now at 10 big-time throws to two turnover-worthy plays.
The quarterback has his best set of receivers in his career regarding drops, as only four have hit the carpet this season. Tre Spivey has the most targets on the team, collecting a season-high 10 against the Cougars in Week 4.
The nickel defense has been light on pass rush, with the highest level of personnel being a 3-3-5 and 2-4-5 with minimal blitz.
Arizona has much more success defending the run than the pass while generating top-35 ranks in opponent Quality Drives and Finishing Drives.
There's a severe drop-off in efficiency in terms of opponent run concepts, as the Wildcats drop 12% in Success Rate from defending inside zone to outside zone.
The biggest pain point for head coach Brent Brennan is the explosives in passing downs. Arizona ranks 117th in passing down EPA allowed.
Cincinnati vs Arizona Prediction
There's reason to believe points will be scored in this game, as both teams rank top-30 in third-down conversions against defenses that are outside the top 75 in third-down conversions allowed.
Cincinnati's ability to create rush EPA through outside zone has created clean passing windows for French. The Bearcats have the advantage in ground attack, as Arizona falls to mid-FBS ranks in defending outside zone.
French should have a field day against the Wildcats' preferred coverage, as the former Georgia Southern quarterback has a high 68% Success Rate with a big-play rate of 28% against Cover 1.
Fifita will have a similar advantage with the passing game, dominating Cincinnati's preferred Cover 3 at a 61% clip.
The bigger issue for Fifita is the low rate of receptions in 50-50 balls, as the Wildcats have caught only four balls on 12 contested throws this season.
Rush explosives are the main weapon against the Cincinnati defense this year, but Arizona running back Kedrick Reescano hasn't been explosive. The junior has created just one explosive run in 39 attempts this season, averaging a low three yards after first contact.
Action Network's Betting Power Ratings call for Arizona to be favored by four points, giving the edge in the market to Cincinnati catching a touchdown.
The total projects at 57, so a case could be made for taking an over on a juiced 55, the biggest key number when wagering on totals.
Pick: Cincinnati +7
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