Georgia Southern vs. Arkansas Betting Odds & Pick: Value on Razorbacks as Heavy Favorites (September 18)

Georgia Southern vs. Arkansas Betting Odds & Pick: Value on Razorbacks as Heavy Favorites (September 18) article feature image
Credit:

Wesley Hitt/Getty Images. Pictured: Arkansas defenders Montaric Brown and LaDarrius Bishop

  • Arkansas and Georgia Southern both put their perfect records on the line.
  • The Razorbacks are high after a huge win over Texas and must avoid an emotional let-down game against the Eagles.
  • CJ Vogel breaks down the matchup and delivers his pick below.

Georgia Southern vs. Arkansas Odds

Saturday, Sept. 18
4 p.m. ET
SEC Network
Georgia Southern Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+23
-120
52.5
-110o / -110u
+1100
Arkansas Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-23
+100
52.5
-110o / -110u
-2200
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

All of the momentum in the college football universe resides in Fayetteville, Arkansas, following a massive beatdown of No. 15 Texas last week.

With sights on a 3-0 start, Arkansas has Georgia Southern coming to town in what could potentially be a letdown situation following the big win.


Georgia Southern Eagles

The Eagles are coming off of a disappointing loss to Florida Atlantic in which they only scored six points. To make matters worse, Georgia Southern scored the game’s first touchdown late in the first quarter, then proceeded to be outscored 38–0.

The loss sent Georgia Southern to 1–1 on the season, 0–1 on the road and, most importantly, 0–2 against the spread this season. They will have their hands full with an Arkansas team coming off the high of the Texas upset.


Eagles Offense

There is no other way to put it: the Florida Atlantic meeting was flat-out ugly for the Eagles’ offense. Only six points on the board and just a smidge over 250 offensive yards was a recipe for a disaster in any situation.

Freshman quarterback Cam Ransom was held to just 98 yards passing on 21 attempts, a clip that clearly hindered Georgia Southern against FAU. The Eagles averaged just 3.7 yards per carry in the run game as well, and were mostly led by Ransom making something out of nothing in scramble drills.

Yet, if there is a bright side to the Georgia Southern offense, the Eagles only committed two penalties the entire game last week. However, that also shows that they are not beating themselves and simply got beat by FAU’s defense.

When it comes to finishing drives, Georgia Southern ranks 118th in the country, about as bad as it gets. The Eagles will struggle to score points on Saturday, and their team total under should also be considered for this play.


Eagles Defense

Georgia Southern’s defense actually started out last week pretty well. Holding N’Kosi Perry and FAU to just 10 total points in the first half is an impressive statement.

However, that quickly disappeared in the second half with a lack of adjustments, and before you knew it, Georgia Southern had allowed 38 points.

Georgia Southern is going to have its hands full with Arkansas’ Treylon Burks following the performance last week of FAU WR LaJohntay Walker, who hauled in seven receptions for 124 yards and a touchdown.

Georgia Southern held Perry in check on the ground, but will certainly have its hands full with 6-foot-5 KJ Jefferson, who is a different kind of running quarterback. It might be another long film session next week for this defense.

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Arkansas Razorbacks

Perhaps no team in the country in the last two years is receiving higher return on investment of a new coaching hire than Arkansas when it brought in Sam Pittman to lead the program.

While Arkansas is unlikely to reciprocate a sellout crowd for the second consecutive week, Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium will be buzzing once again. For the first time in five years, the Razorbacks’ faithful will be seeing a ranked Arkansas team take the field at home.


Razorbacks Offense

Arkansas is coming off of a 40-point performance in which the offense averaged 3.08 points per possession. The running game was on fire for Arkansas in Week 2.

The Razorbacks averaged 7.09 yards per carry and totaled 333 yards via the ground. Running back Trelon Smith led the way with 75 yards and a score and quarterback Jefferson added 73 yards of his own.

The Arkansas rush success rate ranks 13th in the country and should plow over an inferior opponent in Georgia Southern.

For opponents facing Arkansas, getting off the field is extremely difficult. The combination of Jefferson’s legs on third and fourth downs combined with elite wide receiver Burks out of the slot and Smith in the backfield has proved to be a handful for opponents through two weeks.

Razorbacks Defense

Defensive coordinator Barry Odom has the Arkansas defense hitting on all fronts. Arkansas held Texas scoreless in the first half and to just 21 points total, with 14 of them coming late in the fourth quarter when the game was out of hand.

Starting on the defensive line, Arkansas moved to a three-man front in Week 2 and allowed just 3.37 yards per carry while facing one of the nation’s best running backs in Bijan Robinson.

Linebacker Hayden Henry was named the Walter Camp National Defensive Player of the Week and his partner in crime Bumper Pool added 10 tackles in just a half of play.

Yet, perhaps the most talented player on the team is safety Jalen Catalon, who plays sideline to sideline. Whether Arkansas returns to a four-man front or sticks in a three-man look, the run defense is special. Making Georgia Southern rely on the pass to move the ball and score points is a disaster waiting to happen for the Eagles.

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Georgia Southern vs. Arkansas Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Georgia Southern and Arkansas match up statistically:

Georgia Southern Offense vs. Arkansas Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 117 105
Line Yards 105 58
Pass Success 91 47
Pass Blocking* 10 19
Big Play 86 22
Havoc 27 24
Finishing Drives 125 118
* Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Arkansas Offense vs. Georgia Southern Defense

Offense

Defense

Edge

Rush Success 13 93
Line Yards 52 75
Pass Success 72 124
Pass Blocking* 87 51
Big Play 45 117
Havoc 65 73
Finishing Drives 44 49
* Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 74 41
PFF Coverage 92 52
Middle 8 105 68
SP+ Special Teams 22 53
Plays per Minute 51 61
Rush Rate 70.1% (7) 69.5% (10)

Data via College Football Data (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF & SportSource Analytics.


Georgia Southern vs. Arkansas Betting Pick

The line opened at Arkansas -23 and has since jumped as high as -24 at some books.

If you can find the line under 24 points, I would take it. I do believe Arkansas wins by four scores, but not having the hook on 24 would be reason for hesitancy for me.

Regardless, the Razorbacks are playing the best football they have seen in close to a decade and there is no reason to think that should stop this weekend.

Pick: Arkansas -23.5 (Play to -24)

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