The No. 19 Indiana Hoosiers (3-0) host the No. 9 Illinois Fighting Illini (3-0) in a Big Ten battle on Saturday, Sept. 20, at 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC.
Indiana is coming off a 73-0 shellacking of in-state FCS foe Indiana State last week, while Illinois shut out Western Michigan by a score of 38-0.
Now comes the hard part.
Let's take a look at our Indiana vs. Illinois picks and college football predictions for this top-20 showdown on Saturday, September 20.
Indiana vs. Illinois Picks, Predictions
By Pete Ruden
These may not be the biggest brands in college football, but this is a massive matchup in the Big Ten.
Indiana is looking to get back to the College Football Playoff after making its way in as a 10-seed a season ago. However, the Hoosiers find themselves in a tough spot, hosting the 9th-ranked team in the country before back-to-back road trips to Iowa and No. 6 Oregon.
Illinois, meanwhile, had plenty of preseason hype after a 10-win season. If the Illini want to be this season's Indiana, it all starts with beating Curt Cignetti and Co. on Saturday.
Can Illinois live up to the hype, or will Indiana rise to the occasion and continue the program's upward trajectory?
We polled nine members of our college football staff to get their takes on the spread and over/under for Saturday's prime-time showdown. Let's take a look at their picks below.
Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: Illinois +6.5
Everything about Saturday’s ranked-on-ranked Big Ten clash screams tight matchup. Therefore, the staff will gladly take the points with Illinois.
Both the Fighting Illini and Hoosiers broke out last season in the Big Ten, but they didn’t play each other. Needless to say, this is a highly anticipated matchup between two teams with several similarities.
Illinois and Indiana both enter Saturday of Week 4 with plenty of continuity and stability from last year’s breakout squads, from the coaching staff to the roster.
A year after finishing with the fifth-best cover rate in the country (75%), Illinois hasn’t fallen off — at least yet.
The Fighting Illini are 3-0 against the spread out the gates, including a no-doubter blowout over Duke in what was expected to be a tight game.
Quarterback Luke Altmyer has been ultra-smooth for the Fighting Illini, throwing for eight touchdowns against zero interceptions.
Indiana, meanwhile, is hitting its stride offensively as transfer quarterback Fernando Mendoza settles in.
The Hoosiers admittedly came out flat against Old Dominion in the opener but have covered back-to-back games, outscoring Kennesaw State and Indiana State a combined 129-9.
Action Network's PRO Projections support the Illinois, making the fair point spread closer to +4.
Over/Under Pick
Over 52.5 | 3 Picks |
Pass | 2 Picks |
Under 52.5 | 4 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Under 52.5
There’s less conviction on the total, but ultimately, we’ll be rooting for the under.
Indiana’s offense was bound to succeed against a couple of cupcakes. Mendoza, head coach Curt Cignetti and offensive coordinator Mike Shanahan, meanwhile, face the first big test of the season against a fast, athletic Illinois defense.
Since the start of last season, the Illini defense — coached by Aaron Henry, in his third year as defensive coordinator — has held 12 of the last 15 opponents under their team total.
We’ve also found, using Bet Labs, that night games in conference play are "under" smash spots, especially under certain conditions, which may bleed into the Illinois vs. Indiana situation Saturday.
Indiana’s defense lapsed early against Old Dominion, allowing a designed quarterback run for a touchdown on the first play of the game.
Since that point of the game — roughly 12 full quarters — the Hoosiers have allowed 22 total points.
Defensive coordinator Bryant Haines brings back a solid core from last year, including star defensive back D’Angelo Ponds, linebacker Aiden Fisher and defensive lineman Mikail Kamara.
All of that points us toward the under on Saturday night.
Indiana vs. Illinois Odds
| Indiana Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -260 |
| Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +210 |
- Indiana vs. Illinois Spread: Indiana -6.5, Illinois +6.5
- Indiana vs. Illinois Over/Under: 52.5
- Indiana vs. Illinois Moneyline: Indiana -260, Illinois +210
