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Louisiana vs Florida State Odds, Picks: Defenses Will Step Up

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Chris Leduc/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis.

Louisiana vs Florida State Odds

Saturday, Nov. 19
12 p.m. ET
ESPN3
Louisiana Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+23.5
-102
52.5
-105o / -115u
+1160
Florida State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-23.5
-118
52.5
-105o / -115u
-2800
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

In a Saturday Week 12 nonconference matchup, Florida State hosts Louisiana for an early afternoon game.

Louisiana comes into this matchup with a 5-5 record following its home win over Georgia Southern. It’s now 6-4 against the spread and has gone under the total in six games.

Florida State, meanwhile, enters this game at 7-3 and riding a three-game winning streak. The Seminoles have gone 7-3 ATS as well and have stayed under the total in six of their 10 games.

It will be a cool day down south, but the weather shouldn’t have a significant impact on the game. There will be temperatures ranging from 49-55 degrees with crosswinds ranging from 7.8-8.1 MPH.

While that may impact special teams play, it’s unlikely to significantly hinder the passing game.


Louisiana Ragin’ Cajuns

In his first season with Louisiana, head coach Michael Desormeaux is seeing mixed results as the Ragin’ Cajuns sit in the bottom half of the Sun Belt standings.

They’ve averaged 26.6 points per game and 5.3 yards per play with a 38% Success Rate and an average of 3.51 points per opportunity. They also allow a 15% Havoc Rate.

Louisiana runs a balanced offensive attack that uses the pass and run games evenly. Ben Wooldridge stepped in as the full-time starting quarterback after Chandler Fields suffered an injury. He’s completing 56.6% of his passes for 6.8 yards per attempt with 15 touchdowns to just five interceptions.

As a team, ULL has just a 36% Passing Success Rate and has averaged 3.4 plays of at least 20 yard passes per game.

Chris Smith and Terrence Williams lead the ground attack, as both have run for over 300 rushing yards. As a team, the Ragin’ Cajuns own a 42% Rushing Success Rate — six points higher than their mark through the air.

The offensive line has generated 3.13 Line Yards per attempt and has allowed a Stuff Rate of 18.1% .

The Louisiana defense has been the strength of the team in 2022. It’s allowed 21.2 points per game and 5.1 yards per play while giving up a 39% Success Rate and 3.21 points per opportunity. The Cajuns also have a 17% Havoc Rate and allow 3.7 20-plus yard plays per game.

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Florida State Seminoles

Mike Norvell seems to be finding his stride in his third season as Florida State’s head coach.

The Seminoles are averaging 34 points per game and 6.9 yards per play with a 48% Success Rate and an average of 4.05 points per opportunity. They’ve allowed Havoc on 16% of plays.

Quarterback Jordan Travis has taken a step forward with his play during his fourth season with the program, completing 65.3% of his passes for an average of 8.9 yards per attempt. He also owns a 20:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Travis has been a threat on the ground as well, running for 246 yards and three touchdowns. As a team, Florida State boasts a 45% Passing Success Rate and a 51% Rushing Success Rate.

Three players have carried the ball over 75 times for this Florida State offense that averages 38.6 runs per game. Trey Benson has led the way with 7.4 yards per attempt and five touchdowns. Lawrance Toafili has the second-most carries, but he’s been the biggest contributor to the passing game with 22 receptions for 246 yards.

The Noles’ offensive line generates 3.42 Line Yards per attempt and has allowed a 16% Stuff Rate.

Florida State ranks 13th in scoring defense by giving up just 18.1 points per game to opposing offenses. That unit allows just 4.6 yards per play and a 41% Success Rate.

When teams get into scoring opportunities, the Noles allow 3.91 points per opportunity and generate Havoc on 18% of plays.


Louisiana vs Florida State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Louisiana and Florida State match up statistically:

Louisiana Offense vs. Florida State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 85 57
Line Yards 28 78
Pass Success 113 64
Pass Blocking** 74 45
Havoc 48 58
Finishing Drives 99 76
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Florida State Offense vs. Louisiana Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 13 60
Line Yards 41 81
Pass Success 37 36
Pass Blocking** 71 63
Havoc 75 67
Finishing Drives 54 22
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 43 56
PFF Coverage 7 61
SP+ Special Teams 51 100
Seconds per Play 25.5 (44) 27.2 (88)
Rush Rate 50.6% (83) 55.8% (55)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Louisiana vs Florida State Betting Pick

As of writing, Florida State is a 24-point favorite with the total sitting at 52.

Early action has seen sharps strongly backing the underdog. While Louisiana has received just 41% of the bets, it’s also taken 95% of the money. Additionally, 85% of the bets and 93% of the money has been placed on the under.

Both of these teams have found success on the defensive side of the ball, and Louisiana has largely struggled on offense. For that reason, my preferred play in the under.

Pick: Under 51.5 (Play to 50)

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