The LSU Tigers take on the Oklahoma Sooners in Norman on Saturday, Nov. 29. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Oklahoma is favored by 10 points on the spread with a moneyline of -400. LSU, meanwhile, enters as a +10 underdog and is +320 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 36.5 total points.
Here’s my LSU vs. Oklahoma prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 29.
LSU vs Oklahoma Prediction
- LSU vs. Oklahoma Pick: Under 36.5
My Oklahoma vs. LSU best bet is on both teams to go under the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
LSU vs Oklahoma Odds
| LSU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10 -110 | 36 -110o / -110u | +320 |
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10 -110 | 36 -110o / -110u | -400 |
- LSU vs Oklahoma Spread: Oklahoma -10, LSU +10
- LSU vs Oklahoma Over/Under: 36 Points
- LSU vs Oklahoma Moneyline: LSU +320, Oklahoma -400
LSU vs Oklahoma College Football Betting Preview
LSU Tigers Betting Preview: Defense Key Amid Rough Season
It has been a rough season for the Tigers. They've seen another season without a College Football Playoff appearance, their starting middle linebacker get embarrassed by his girlfriend's dad on a national stage, and their $100 million coach get fired, taking his "fahm-ily" with him.
And despite their 7-4 record, this season could truly be worse for the Tigers. Of their seven wins, three have come against Louisiana Tech, Southeastern Louisiana and Western Kentucky by a score of 13-10 last week.
And two of their SEC wins have come against South Carolina and Arkansas, which have a grand total of one conference win between them.
Their overall PFF grade comes in at 83rd, well below average. One major reason for this has been their inability to stay in front of the chains. The Tigers rank:
- 124th in Standard Down Rate
- 115th in Standard Down EPA/Play
- 103rd in Standard Down Success Rate
- 132nd in Standard Down Explosiveness
LSU may legitimately be the worst team in the country on first down and "and short" situations. That's a very dubious honor, especially in the SEC.
While it obviously underwent a QB change following an injury to Garrett Nussmeier, a 13-point game against the mighty Western Kentucky Hilltoppers isn't enough for me to declare Michael Van Buren Jr. the hero of this offense.
There's some reason for optimism, though. LSU has been above average on defense (however, as Brian Kelly learned, a decent defense is not enough to survive in the Bayou). The Tigers rank:
- 33rd in Success Rate Allowed
- 21st in Points Per Opportunity Allowed
- 38th in Havoc
- 38th in Third-Down Defense
- 45th in PFF Defensive Grade
While the Tigers struggle on standard downs on offense, they excel on defense, ranking 25th in standard down rate allowed, 25th in standard down Success Rate allowed and 32nd in standard down PPA/Play allowed
So, while I don't expect LSU's offense to do much, I do expect the defense to have another respectable showing.
Oklahoma Sooners Betting Preview: Mateer's Recovery Driving Team
On the other side, Oklahoma is peaking with quarterback John Mateer getting closer to full strength each week. The Sooners have rattled off three straight wins, including victories over top-15 (at the time) Tennessee and Alabama.
These wins have been bolstered by a defense that may be head coach Brent Venables' best yet in Norman.
This Sooners defense has been kicking butt and taking names, allowing more than 28 points just once to a very explosive Ole Miss team. This stop unit ranks:
- 2nd in Success Rate Allowed
- 7th in Points Per Opportunity Allowed
- 2nd in Havoc
These metrics have led teams to struggle to stay on schedule. Because of that, the Sooners sit seventh in standard down rate, third in standard down PPA/Play allowed and second in standard down Success Rate allowed
Unfortunately for OU, this offense isn't nearly good enough for this team to be considered elite.
The Sooners rank 86th in overall PFF grade, and while Mateer is getting healthier, he hasn't played nearly up to the hype this season with a 66 PFF grade that ranks 97th among QBs with at least 260 snaps.
More concerning for this team is its splits against this LSU front seven. The Sooners rank 91st in Havoc allowed, while Mateer comes in at 31st in turnover-worthy play rate.
Expect the Tigers to live in Oklahoma's backfield and for Mateer to struggle.
LSU vs Oklahoma Pick, Betting Analysis
LSU is coming into this game with nothing to lose, while Oklahoma is fighting for a playoff spot. It seems like a classic trap game to me.
While it screams trap game, I think this will be more of a dive bar brawl than anything. Neither team can move the ball on offense, both teams play slowly, and each defense is highly disruptive.
This is an extremely low total, but I think we'll see a comfortable under. I see a lot of failed runs up the middle, incomplete short passes and punts in this game's future.
While the teams here may be big names, do not expect fireworks here.
You may enjoy this game if you like good defense, bad quarterback play,and Venables looking like a psychopath on the sideline (which will be turned up to 100 with a CFP berth on the line).
This could legitimately be a 13-7 slugfest.
Pick: Under 36.5
LSU vs Oklahoma Betting Trends
