The Missouri State Bears take on the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders in Murfreesboro, Tenn. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Missouri State is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -135. Middle Tennessee, meanwhile, comes into the game as a +2.5 underdog and is +115 to pull off the small upset. The over/under sits at 50 points.
Here’s my Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee prediction and college football picks for Wednesday, October 8.
Missouri State vs Middle Tennessee Prediction
- Missouri State vs. Middle Tennessee Pick: Under 50.5
My Middle Tennessee vs. Missouri State best bet is on both teams to go under the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Missouri State vs Middle Tennessee Odds
| Missouri State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 50 -110o / -110u | -135 |
| Middle Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 50 -110o / -110u | +115 |
- Missouri State vs Middle Tennessee Spread: Missouri State -2.5, Middle Tennessee +2.5
- Missouri State vs Middle Tennessee Over/Under: 50 Points
- Missouri State vs Middle Tennessee Moneyline: Missouri State -135, Middle Tennessee +115
Missouri State vs Middle Tennessee College Football Betting Preview
Missouri State Bears Betting Preview: Making Progress
Missouri State has fought valiantly in its three home games this season, including last week, where it lost a close game to perennial CUSA favorite Western Kentucky.
The Bears nearly overcame losing star quarterback Jacob Clark, who went down with a leg injury in the second quarter, as backup Deuce Bailey led two second-half touchdown drives in the five-point loss.
Missouri State had been one of the worst rushing teams in the country, but it got the ground game going against WKU with 214 rushing yards on 6.3 yards per carry.
Shomari Lawrence led the group with 78 yards, and Bailey found ways to create with his legs on numerous occasions.
The pass game — which has been a strength for Missouri State during the last several years — struggled to do much of anything. This will be something to watch because Clark is not expected to play in this one.
Bailey should look a little more comfortable in passing situations this week after having 10 days to prepare as the starter, but he won't be able to fully replicate the experience of a fifth-year senior like Clark.
It’s really hard for a team to dig itself out of a hole when it gives up 73 points and 600 yards of offense, as the Bears did against USC in the opener. But this defense hasn't played too poorly, given the circumstances.
This unit stifled the WKU passing attack for long stretches of this game and also forced punts or turnovers on downs on five of the Tops' first seven possessions.
Factor in how well this unit performed against SMU, and we could potentially be talking about a reliable stop unit here for Missouri State.
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders Betting Preview: Wildly Inefficient
Middle Tennessee has been a disappointment in head coach Derek Mason's second season.
Quarterback Nicholas Vattiato has been average for the Blue Raiders offense, and there's very little help around him. This team was embarrassed at home by FCS Austin Peay in the opener and faded in the fourth quarter three weeks ago when hosting Marshall in a weather-delayed contest.
While the operation did look a little better against Kennesaw State, too many mistakes, drops and ineffective play-calling kept this bunch from getting over the hump. The offense is simply too inefficient to be relied upon to score points.
Defensively, the metrics aren't great for the Blue Raiders.
The stop unit played better on the road last time out against Kennesaw State, but the inability to stop the pass or get off the field in key moments has really hindered its chances.
If Middle Tennessee is going to save its season and get on the right side of those close losses, the defense is going to have to play better.
Missouri State vs Middle Tennessee Pick, Betting Analysis
Weekday CUSA action is finally here, and I'll be watching this one with an under ticket in hand.
Missouri State's offensive output is sure to take a step back with a backup quarterback in a conference road environment.
The Bears rank just 117th nationally in Offensive Success Rate and 130th in Finishing Drives, and that was with the experienced Clark at the helm.
The Bears struggle to consistently stack successful plays together and are far too reliant on explosive plays to move the ball. That's not sustainable long term, especially when they convert just 27% of their third-down attempts.
Middle Tennessee has been good against the run this season, allowing just 3.5 yards per carry on the ground at home. This front seven grades out as the second-strongest run-stopping unit in CUSA and the fifth-best tackling unit, per PFF.
I could see this defense stepping up with fresh legs after extra rest to provide some resistance to what Missouri State wants to do offensively.
On the other side, the MTSU offense is unbearably inefficient, scoring just 16 points per game this season. The Blue Raiders are averaging 3.1 yards per carry on the ground, and the offensive line has allowed 18 sacks.
Middle Tennessee has converted only 29% of its third-down attempts, so I don’t believe this offense will have enough success to score enough points to go over the total.
This game could be entertaining. We should see plenty of possessions, but I would also assume a lot of punts.
Both of these offenses are inefficient and have question marks everywhere. We've seen some steam on the under, and I agree with the move.
Pick: Under 50.5
