The Mountain West Championship kicks off on Friday night with a rematch of last year's showdown.
For the second consecutive year, the Boise State Broncos (8-4, 6-2 MW) host the UNLV Rebels (10-2, 6-2 MW) at Albertsons Stadium at 8 p.m. ET on FOX.
While this marks the second straight year that Boise earned home-field advantage over UNLV, it's the third consecutive Mountain West title game between these teams.
This time around, Boise State comes in as a -4 favorite with the over/under set at 58.5 total points.
For this Mountain West matchup, I put together a 3-leg same-game parlay featuring a moneyline play, a player prop for Boise State running back Dylan Riley and a game prop that expects to see plenty of points.
Without further ado, let's take a look at my Mountain West Championship picks and Boise State vs. UNLV same-game parlay for Friday, Dec. 5.
Boise State vs. UNLV Picks, Parlay
- Boise State ML
- Dylan Riley Anytime TD
- Both Teams to Score 20+ Points
Parlay Odds: +170 (via bet365)
Boise State vs. UNLV Odds
| Boise State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | -180 |
| UNLV Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 58.5 -110o / -110u | +155 |
ML Pick: Boise State ML
These teams have already met once this season — a dominant 56-31 Boise State win on Oct. 18. As the final score indicates, the Broncos destroyed the Rebels offensively the first time around.
Quarterback Maddux Madsen threw for 253 yards and four touchdowns, while running back Dylan Riley put up a career-high 201 yards on the ground. The Broncos, as a team, ran for 294 yards and three scores on 8.9 yards per carry.
I expect more of the same in this game.
UNLV's defense has struggled mightily this season, ranking outside the top 100 in Success Rate allowed and explosiveness allowed.
The Rebels sit near dead last in Rush PPA Per Play allowed and rushing explosiveness allowed, and while they're better against the pass, they're just 94th in Passing Success Rate allowed and 89th in passing explosiveness allowed.
UNLV's strength has been on the offensive side of the ball.
Well, Boise State has the personnel to disrupt that rhythm. The Broncos sit top-five in both Passing Success Rate allowed and Pass PPA Per Play allowed, while coming in at a solid 40th in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
For what it's worth, according to Stuckey, Boise State is going for its 10th straight win over UNLV since 2011, which includes four wins and covers since 2023. Two of those wins and covers came in the previous two Mountain West Championships.
Boise State should have no problems pulling it off on the Smurf Turf.
Boise State Player Prop: Dylan Riley Anytime TD
Riley had the game of his life the last time these two teams met. In that first meeting, the Moreno Valley, California, native racked up 15 carries for 201 yards and a touchdown.
He can do it again here.
UNLV ranks 136th — dead last — in EPA Per Rush. Riley had a 65-yard run and a 49-yard run the last time he faced the Rebels. If he gets anywhere near scoring position, he can go the distance.
I'm avoiding Riley's rushing prop because that can depend heavily on usage. He has logged single-digit carries in four games this season. That's worrisome from a yardage perspective, but he still found pay dirt in one of those games.
Riley has reached the end zone 10 times this season, including in each of the last three games. I'm betting he does it again here.
Game Prop: Both Teams to Score 20+ Points
These teams should have no problem lighting up the scoreboard. In fact, the Mountain West Championship has the third-highest total of any conference title game on the board this week behind the American (66.5) and CUSA (59.5).
These two easily flew over the total in an 87-point outing in their first meeting. With a halftime score of 28-24, 20 points for both sides was never even a concern.
UNLV leads the Mountain West in scoring offense at 37.2 points per game, while Boise State comes in at third with 30.8.
With an extremely leaky defense on one side and another that has given up its fair share of points, this might be the easiest leg to cash.
Boise State vs. UNLV Parlay
- Boise State ML
- Dylan Riley Anytime TD
- Both Teams to Score 20+ Points
Parlay Odds: +170 (via bet365)
