Navy vs Memphis Odds, Prediction & Picks | Thursday NCAAF Betting Guide

For the lone FBS vs FBS game on Thursday we look to the Navy Midshipmen (1-1)  vs. the Memphis Tigers (2-0).

These teams haven’t put much on display this season, but the rosters are largely the same from when these two faced off a season ago, leaving us with some information to go off of.

Let’s take a look at the odds and make a betting pick for this AAC matchup between Navy and Memphis.

Not much can be gleaned from Navy’s first two contests this season. Week 0 saw it get drubbed in Ireland by Notre Dame, and in Week 2, it dispatched FCS opponent Wagner with ease.

Through these two games, it’s still way too early to make any judgments on what this team is.

Brian Newberry takes over as the new head coach in Annapolis after spending the last four years as the defensive coordinator.

Running the Navy offense will be Grant Chesnut, who has been the offensive coordinator at Kennesaw State for the last nine seasons. At Kennesaw, Chesnut ran a variation of the option, which fits Navy’s traditional offensive scheme.

Offensively, the Midshipmen return eight starters, including their leading passer, four of their top five leading rushers, their leading receiver and four offensive linemen.

In Week 1 against Notre Dame, the Navy offense had a yards-per-play mark in the second percentile. However, its Success Rate sat in the 48th percentile. The Mids would pick up the yards they needed at times but couldn't generate any explosive plays.

Naturally, the offense improved against Wagner and up a 58th-percentile Success Rate and 56th-percentile EPA per Play. While an improvement, Wagner’s defense finished 112th in the FCS by SP+ last year, so more should be expected from the Middies.

They may prove me wrong, but I don’t see this being the week that Navy proves to be better than its SP+ offensive ranking of 107th from last year.

The Navy defense was one of the better units in the AAC last season, ranking 41st in SP+ defense while allowing just 24.3 points per game.

With nine starters back, including all of its defensive backs, Memphis may have a tough time moving the ball against this squad.

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In the same way that it's tough to take anything away from Navy’s first two games, Memphis has had a similarly unhelpful schedule. Week 1 saw it beat Bethune-Cookman, 56-14, while it had the privilege of playing a downtrodden Arkansas State team in Week 2 and won, 37-3.

Quarterback Seth Henigan returns for his third season with the Tigers. Last year, he threw for 3,571 yards and 22 touchdowns, leading Memphis' 29th-ranked offense.

With the easy schedule, things have started off well for him again. Memphis ranks 14th in the country in Passing Success Rate so far with Henigan averaging 0.33 EPA per Play and completing 72% of his passes.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Tigers struggled a bit last year, ranking 80th in SP+. Things are off to a strong start for them in 2023, though, as they rank 5th in Defensive Success Rate.

However, this is largely due to their schedule of opponents.

Memphis does bring back six starters from last year’s defense, including most of the secondary. We shouldn’t expect this defense to perform as well as it has going forward, but it may be marginally improved from last year.

At this point in the season, I’m not confident whatsoever in Navy’s offense. Wagner is a team it certainly should have had a better offensive showing against, but the Midshipmen failed to produce any remarkable numbers.

Memphis ranked 23rd in yards per rush allowed last year and held Navy to a 13th-percentile Success Rate in a 37-13 victory.

I like the Tigers at -14.5 and would take them to -17, as I believe they win going away here on Thursday night.