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The college football slate this weekend has fewer marquee matchups than last week. But these are the slates that usually deliver with some big upsets and unexpected drama. Stay alert!
We were a successful Oregon State two-point conversion attempt away from a 3-0 week last week, but it was still a solid 2-1 weekend on the team totals selections.
The Beavers scored with 14:50 left in the fourth quarter and certainly could have scored more, but UTEP couldn’t provide any real incentive for Oregon State to keep trying to score. On to our Week 5 college football selections!
Let's dive into our NCAAF picks and college football predictions for this week's team totals.
Miami vs Clemson Pick
The Miami Hurricanes have impressed in a big way on both sides of the ball.
Quarterback Darian Mensah and the offense have been extremely efficient, while the Miami defense ranks first in the nation in PPA/Pass allowed and fourth in explosiveness allowed.
Head coach Mario Cristobal’s teams do play down to competition at times, but I don’t think that's very likely here against the Clemson Tigers.
Clemson isn’t the team it was a few seasons ago, but since it ran the ACC for a good while, it often gets the best effort of opposing teams.
Miami has an incredibly easy schedule in conference, and this is one that it would have circled before the season. I expect the Canes to be ready to go for a night game in Death Valley.
Clemson is still good on defense, but the offense is a mess. The Tigers rank 133rd out of 138 teams when it comes to Offensive Success Rate. The Clemson offensive line has been terrible again, sitting 116th nationally in Offensive Line Yards.
The Tigers are also 133rd in QBR and 133rd in third-down conversion percentage.
Clemson had a horrible time moving the football against a mediocre or worse Cal defense last week, so I don’t see how it'll do much of anything against Miami’s strong defense.
Rain is expected to move into the area during the day on Saturday. This is a Saturday night game, and the conditions could be pretty sloppy here.
That makes it even more likely to be a battle in the trenches. That’s a battle I don’t think Clemson has much of a chance to win, at least on the offensive side.
Pick: Clemson Team Total Under 15.5
Confidence Rating: B+
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Bowling Green vs Miami (OH) Pick
The Bowling Green Falcons offense has been abysmal this season, averaging only 4.07 yards per play. That ranks last in the country by a wide margin. How bad are they?
In four games, Bowling Green has only six plays of 20 yards or more. The national average is about 17 or 18.
Bowling Green ranks 137th in Rushing Success Rate on offense and 137th in team QBR.
The Falcons have no identity on offense. It isn’t like they've faced the toughest schedule of defenses either. Bowling Green has faced Tarleton, Nebraska, Iowa State and USF.
The Miami (OH) RedHawks defense has disappointed thus far, but Chuck Martin’s teams have been really good defensively in Mid-American Conference play in the last several seasons. I think the defense will look much better as we turn the page to conference play once again.
Bowling Green has been atrocious once it gets into the red zone, and Miami has a long history of strengthening defensively in the red zone.
Offensively, Miami is likely to play much more conservatively with starting quarterback David McComb hurt. They already sat bottom-five in the country in pace of play. Now, they’ll be running the football more and keeping that clock moving.
Bowling Green hasn’t surpassed 13 points in a game so far this season. I don’t think it'll do it in this one either.
Pick: Bowling Green Team Total Under 14.5
Confidence Rating: B
Kentucky vs South Carolina Pick
The South Carolina Gamecocks’ season is spiraling out of control, and head coach Shane Beamer’s seat is red-hot right now.
Dylan Stewart is suspended and reportedly not with the team right now. I don’t know what Stewart’s future holds, but he's the most talented player on the South Carolina defense, and he'll be missed on the field.
South Carolina is still pushing the pace on offense, coming in at 16th nationally in plays per minute. The Gamecocks have been running 73 plays per game.
Kentucky is playing slower than South Carolina, but the Wildcats offense has been far more explosive than expected. Kentucky sits 32nd nationally in rushing explosiveness and 24th in passing explosiveness.
The Cats' offensive line deserves a ton of credit for their fast start this season. The Wildcats grade out as the 17th-best offensive line in pass blocking and ninth-best in run blocking, per PFF.
This was going to be a larger play for me, but the weather forecast made me back this one down a bit. The forecast in Columbia calls for a lot of rain on Saturday night.
I still think Kentucky will score, but the confidence rating and unit size on the play dipped a bit because of a little extra uncertainty.
Pick: Kentucky Team Total Over 24.5
Confidence Rating: B-
