The New Mexico Lobos take on the Air Force Falcons at the U.S. Air Force Academy in Colorado. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
New Mexico is favored by 3.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -160. The total is set at 55 points.
Here’s my New Mexico vs. Air Force prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 22.
New Mexico vs Air Force Prediction
- New Mexico vs. Air Force Pick: New Mexico -3 or Better
My Air Force vs. New Mexico best bet is on the Lobos to cover. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
New Mexico vs Air Force Odds
| New Mexico Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -105 | 55 -110o / -110u | -160 |
| Air Force Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -115 | 55 -110o / -110u | +140 |
- New Mexico vs Air Force point spread: New Mexico -3.5 (-105), Air Force +3.5 (-115)
- New Mexico vs Air Force over/under: 55.5 (-110o / -110u)
- New Mexico vs Air Force moneyline: New Mexico -160, Air Force +140
New Mexico vs Air Force Preview
New Mexico still has everything to play for with a chance to make it to the Mountain West championship.
Meanwhile, Air Force has now officially been eliminated from bowl contention following last week's loss at UConn.
Most importantly, Air Force lost starting quarterback Liam Szarka to a season-ending injury in that defeat. That's an absolutely enormous loss for the Falcons. Not only did Szarka bring a bona fide passing element to the triple option, but he also led one of the most efficient Group of 5 offenses in rushing.
It should be a significant drop-off to Kemper Hodges, especially through the air, which really matters in this particular matchup.
The Air Force offense ranks in the top five nationally in EPA per Pass, which would have likely caused significant problems for a porous New Mexico secondary that ranks outside the top 100 in most pass defense categories.
However, the Lobos have been very stout against the run (top 35 in Success Rate), which should help them immensely on Saturday, especially without Szarka.
Meanwhile, New Mexico's offense should get whatever it wants against one of the nation's worst defenses. Air Force is particularly poor against the pass (dead last in Success Rate), which is where the Lobos excel under head coach Jason Eck.
However, they should also succeed on the ground against a defense that ranks dead last in yards before contact allowed. You can expect the run to set up plenty of shots downfield that will lead to an abundance of explosive plays against an extremely slow-footed Air Force secondary.
Even Wyoming's Kaden Anderson went 23-for-39 passing against the Falcons, who have two FBS wins on the season against SJSU and Wyoming in games where they won the turnover battle 5-0 despite getting out-gained.
As long as New Mexico takes care of the ball, it should pick up a big road win in Colorado Springs.
Pick: New Mexico -3 or Better
