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Ohio vs Miami (OH) Odds & Picks: Betting Value on Tuesday’s Total

Ohio vs Miami (OH) Odds & Picks: Betting Value on Tuesday’s Total article feature image

Scott Taetsch/Getty Images. Pictured: Ohio quarterback Kurtis Rourke.

Ohio vs Miami (OH) Odds

Tuesday, Nov. 8
7:30 p.m. ET
Ohio Odds
-105o / -115u
Miami (OH) Odds
-105o / -115u
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The MAC East Division is wide open with three programs sitting with a 4-1 conference record. Ohio is among that group and hopes to keep its place atop the division after it matches up with Miami (OH) on Tuesday night.

The Bobcats are one of the hottest teams in the conference, having beaten four MAC opponents in a row. More importantly for bettors, the program has covered all five of its conference games by an average of two touchdowns per contest.

Now, it matches up against the preseason East favorite in Miami (OH). The RedHawks' season was derailed after quarterback Brett Gabbert was injured in the opener against Kentucky.

Will the return of the top quarterback in the conference be enough to rejuvenate the RedHawks offense in this matchup?

Ohio Bobcats

Ohio has continued to prove oddsmakers incorrect this season. The Bobcats owned odds of 16-1 to win the conference and now are the front runners in the East Division. In addition, the program has covered five games in a row, including three outright victories in a row as underdogs.

The Bobcats hope to make that four in a row behind stellar quarterback play from Kurtis Rourke.

After a mediocre sophomore campaign, the redshirt junior has been lighting it up this season. Rourke has tossed 21 touchdowns to only four interceptions this year. He’s averaging over 300 yards per game and nine yards per pass attempt.

Sam Wiglusz has emerged as Rourke’s go-to receiver on the outside. Wiglusz averages 79 yards receiving per game and has found pay dirt nine times this season.

Ohio’s offense is averaging over 30 points per game and six yards per play against FBS competition, both ranking among the top 45 in the country.

But the defense still has been a problem this year, allowing 31 points per game. The secondary that allows 7.7 yards per pass attempt has been a concern, and it will certainly be tested in this matchup against Gabbert.

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Miami RedHawks

Miami (OH) owned the best odds to come out of the MAC East before the season started.

Quarterback Brett Gabbert led the RedHawks to one of the most dominant passing attacks in the Group of Five last season. But those hopes came to a crashing end after he was injured in the opener against Kentucky.

Miami made do with two backups who had a combined one career pass attempt at the collegiate level.

The offense transitioned to redshirt freshman Aveon Smith, who completed 52% of his passes for only 105 yards per game. He was more serviceable as a runner, as he averaged 5.0 yards per carry for 45 yards per game.

But Gabbert is now back under center, and Miami hopes to win two of its final three matchups to become bowl-eligible. Gabbert is averaging 6.7 yards per pass attempt and 190 yards per game since his return two weeks ago.

The offense converted just 2-of-13 third downs last week in a victory over Akron. The RedHawks were outgained by 130 yards as Gabbert continues to shake off the rust after his extended time off.

The offensive numbers for Miami haven’t been great. The group ranks outside the top 115 in the nation in scoring offense (18 PPG) and yards per play (4.4).

But with the return of its starting quarterback, those numbers should see improvement down the stretch.

Ohio vs Miami (OH) Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ohio and Miami (OH) match up statistically:

Ohio Offense vs. Miami (OH) Defense
Rush Success11432
Line Yards9641
Pass Success2072
Pass Blocking**17100
Finishing Drives8615
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Miami (OH) Offense vs. Ohio Defense
Rush Success13068
Line Yards8077
Pass Success110106
Pass Blocking**9584
Finishing Drives11465
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling12460
PFF Coverage12375
SP+ Special Teams10662
Seconds per Play27.8 (96)30.0 (126)
Rush Rate46.9% (106)61.1% (17)
Data via (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Ohio vs Miami (OH) Betting Pick

This is an intriguing matchup between two programs that have flipped places from the preseason projections.

Rourke has been lighting up defenses this season, and I don’t anticipate that to change in this matchup. Ohio owns a top-20 Passing Success Rate and pass-blocking rating. It should be in for a field day against a Miami defense that ranks 72nd and 100th, respectively, in those same metrics.

Meanwhile, the Ohio defense ranks 124th in tackling and 123rd in coverage, per PFF. I expect this to be the first breakout game for Gabbert since his return. Gabbert has also won 11 of his 12 career starts in Oxford.

Despite these two offenses playing with slow tempos, I believe they will put points up in this matchup. Both passing offenses are going to find success through the air and find the end zone in a back-and-forth matchup.

Pick: Over 50.5 ⋅ Play to 52

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