Old Dominion vs Georgia Southern Odds & Pick: A Sun Belt Team Total to Bet
Dan Sanger/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Georgia Southern’s Davis Brin.
Old Dominion vs Georgia Southern Odds
Old Dominion heads to Statesboro to take on Georgia Southern in a game that promises to be fast and high-scoring.
Besides lots of points and a quick tempo, what else do we predict in this matchup? Well, let's get right to our Old Dominion vs. Georgia Southern pick.
Expectations were low for Old Dominion this season, so this four-win season is already considered a success.
The veer-and-shoot offense brought in by new offensive coordinator Kevin Decker has shown proof of concept and helped lead to upset wins over Sun Belt contenders. It also stressed James Madison and Wake Forest.
The system is powered by extreme tempo (ninth in the country in seconds per play) and explosives, especially on the ground. Old Dominion doesn't run the ball a ton, but is eighth in the nation in explosive gains on the ground. Keshawn Wicks is the lead back and averages 5.4 yards per carry, though he missed last week’s contest at Liberty.
Meanwhile, Kadarius Calloway is averaging an astonishing 8.1 yards per carry. The Monarchs have struggled to run in recent weeks but should bust free against Georgia Southern's defense.
Old Dominion will also sling it around. Quarterback Grant Wilson has cleaned things up after a rough September transition to FBS ball after transferring from Fordham. He’s thrown 14 touchdowns and six interceptions on the year but has only completed 58% of his passes and takes too many sacks.
Wilson’s stat line is indicative of the boom-or-bust nature of this offense, which is 110th in Success Rate and 11th in explosives.
The defense, once again, is competent for Ricky Rahne’s crew. Led by superstar linebacker Jason Henderson, this is a middle-of-the-pack group when it comes to stopping the run (49th in EPA/rush).
Much like their own offense, they have an extreme efficiency/explosive split. They are great at preventing the big play and rank fourth in the nation in explosive prevention, but they also rank 103rd in Success Rate.
Much like Old Dominion, Georgia Southern plays fast (31st in seconds per play). The Eagles run a heavy dose of RPOs and throw the ball often as they rank fourth in the nation in pass play rate.
Quarterback Davis Brin, a Tulsa transfer, will go over the 3,000-yard mark early in this game. He has thrown 21 touchdowns but has also tossed 13 interceptions this season. He completes 64.7% of his passes at only 6.4 yards per attempt as the offense relies on quick tempo, short routes and RPOs.
The receiving crew is deep and sure-handed, led by Khaleb Hood, the best pass catcher in school history.
The Eagles aren’t a big-play offense (99th in explosives), but their Success Rate is 29th.
They're also well-balanced between the rush (27th) and the pass (34th). They will drive the ball up and down the field against Old Dominion.
The defense is not very good, but it is a step up from last season’s woeful unit, which was one of the worst in the FBS. Most importantly, this is an excellent havoc team, which has been new defensive coordinator Brandon Bailey’s calling card.
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Old Dominion and Georgia Southern match up statistically:
Old Dominion Offense vs. Georgia Southern Defense
Georgia Southern Offense vs. Old Dominion Defense
Pace of Play / Other
|Special Teams SP+||101||64|
|Seconds per Play||23.2 (9)||25.0 (31)|
|Rush Rate||57.2% (78)||39.3% (130)|
Old Dominion vs Georgia Southern
Betting Pick & Prediction
I went into this believing I would take the over, but Old Dominion’s new offense is still suffering growing pains. It's been impressive at creating big plays but is unreliable.
Georgia Southern’s Havoc tendency is a huge advantage over a Monarchs team that is susceptible to negative plays, and that could end up being a factor if Old Dominion's offense lays a dud.
The Eagles also have an offensive mismatch and will be able to create efficient, sustained drives by passing against a Monarchs defense more built to stop the run and take away explosives, which isn't Georgia Southern’s M.O.
I’ll avoid the boom-or-bust nature of Old Dominion’s offense, and trust Georgia Southern to go over its team total of 34.5.
Pick: Georgia Southern Team Total Over 34.5
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