Ole Miss vs Texas A&M Odds & Picks: Bet This Short Favorite
Justin Ford/Getty Images. Pictured: Ole Miss quarterback Jaxson Dart.
Ole Miss vs Texas A&M Odds
Ole Miss and Texas A&M will meet for just the 14th time on Saturday night in College Station.
Both teams are looking to bounce back from losses last week. Ole Miss was torched by Jayden Daniels and the LSU offense and lost, 45-20. Meanwhile, the Aggies fell to South Carolina, 30-24.
Although Texas A&M came out of Columbia with a loss, the Aggies outgained the Gamecocks, 398-286.
A&M’s inexperienced defense will have yet another test against an Ole Miss offense that has recorded more than 3,500 total yards and 2,000 rushing yards — the only team in the country to do so.
Can Jimbo Fisher start to get production out of his uber-talented Aggies squad? Or will Ole Miss’ offense simply outpace an underperforming Aggies offense?
Let’s dive in.
After rattling off seven consecutive wins, Ole Miss was throttled by LSU. Daniels, a dual-threat quarterback, recorded 369 all-purpose yards and five touchdowns for the Tigers.
Daniels exposed an Ole Miss defense built to make teams one-dimensional.
The Rebels defense ranks outside the top 80 in both EPA per Rush and Pass. However, despite the poor numbers, they've thwarted opposing offenses enough to allow the offense to win games.
The Ole Miss defense will need to be successful up front against an Aggies rushing attack that's led by All-American running back Devon Achane.
Although the Rebels have allowed teams to produce a 41.2% Success Rate on the ground, they have been able to limit the explosive plays the Aggies have relied on for much of their limited offensive success.
The Rebel’s defense has allowed a 1.1 explosiveness ranking, which shrinks to just .79 against the run.
Ole Miss' ability to limit explosiveness will force the Aggies into long and methodical drives, restricting the number of opportunities in which they get to outpace the Rebels offense.
Offensively, Ole Miss has a perfect matchup to get back on track after being held to 90 yards under their season-long average of 490.5 per game last week.
The Aggies rank 81st in Rushing Success Rate, which has been a cornerstone of offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby’s attack so far this season. The Rebels rank top-10 nationally in Offensive Rushing Success Rate (48.9%).
If the Rebels return Zach Evans — who was held out of last weeks game as a precaution — to the lineup, the ground attack gets even more deadly.
The Aggies' disappointing season continued this week, as Denver Harris, P.J. Williams and Chris Marshall were all suspended following an incident in the locker room against South Carolina.
This, combined with quarterback Haynes King going down with an injury in the second half, has created a tense environment in College Station.
The one bright spot for this Aggies team has been Achane. The Aggies have relied on him so heavily for offensive production that he has more than double the scrimmage yards of any other player on offense.
Achane’s production will be crucial for an Aggies offense that ranks 103rd in the country in Passing Success Rate (35.5%).
With everything trending toward Fisher sticking with King at quarterback, these passing numbers won't see a drastic change on Saturday night.
The Texas A&M passing attack has undoubtedly struggled, but it's also been trending in the right direction. Last week, the Aggies outgained the Gamecocks in total yards, passing yards, rushing yards and yards per play.
The Aggies offense was inhibited by its inability to convert scoring opportunities. Texas A&M ranks 103rd in the country and accounts for just 1.83 net points per drive.
In order to compete against an Ole Miss offense that is converting 3.12 net points per drive, the Aggies will need to be more efficient offensively than they have been so far this season.
Ole Miss vs Texas A&M Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ole Miss and Texas A&M match up statistically:
Ole Miss Offense vs Texas A&M Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
Texas A&M Offense vs Ole Miss Defense
|** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)|
Pace of Play / Other
|SP+ Special Teams||11||82|
|Seconds per Play||20.3 (3)||28.0 (100)|
|Rush Rate||62.6% (12)||46.6% (104)|
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
Ole Miss vs Texas A&M Betting Pick
The success that Achane will have on the ground is undeniable against a Rebels defense that ranks 91st in Rush Success.
Unfortunately for the Aggies, Ole Miss will be able to have the same success offensively, coupled with an ability to test the Aggies through the air.
Look for Texas A&M to continue its poor ability to convert scoring opportunities (87th in Finishing Drives) and to be outpaced by an Ole Miss offense primed to bounce back after underperforming last week.