Penn State vs. Michigan State Odds & Prediction: Are Nittany Lions Still Overvalued?

Penn State at Michigan State Odds

• Odds: Penn State -4.5
• Over/Under: 42.5
• Moneyline: PSU -210, MSU +175
• Time: 3:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC

Penn State may not be the most impressive 7-0 ever, but the Nittany Lions have passed every tough test so far — something they haven't always done under James Franklin.

Now, PSU turns its attention to Michigan State, which its 1-4 against in the last five years.

The Spartans haven't been impressive by any means this season, but Mark Dantonio is excellent as an underdog and weird things happen in East Lansing when ranked teams come to town.

Odds as of Saturday morning and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

Model Prediction for PSU-MSU

Using our betting power ratings, we can project every spread and total. EDGE members can access our full power ratings here.

• Spread: Penn State -7.5
• Total: 50.8

Spot Favors Spartans

This is probably the best situational spot of the weekend.

Sparty is coming off a bye, which was much needed for a beat up team that needed to heal up and get healthier (especially along the offensive line).

Meanwhile, Penn State is coming off two straight close, emotional wins against Iowa and Michigan. The Nittany Lions ended up pulling out both but were very fortunate to do so as they were outplayed by Iowa and Michigan.

As a result of those two wins, PSU stayed undefeated and the market hasn’t discounted this team enough in my opinion. The Nittany Lions also had a few questionable results before those last two, mainly at home against Buffalo and Pitt, who played them even from a yards per play perspective.

This is a tough ask for a young Penn State team against a very experienced Michigan State squad that should come out refreshed and focused after a disappointing start to the season. The Spartans still feature one of the best defenses in all of college football.

Their defensive front should dominate the line of scrimmage against a vulnerable Penn State offensive line, forcing Sean Clifford to beat them through the air. And I don’t think he can keep up this charade any longer.

I make this a true coin flip, so gladly took +6.5 and would take anything over a field goal. Trust in Dantonio as a dog, which has been a 60% proposition ATS over the past decade.

Pick: Michigan State +6.5 [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]