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San Diego State vs Fresno State Betting Odds, Picks: Back Aztecs as Road Underdogs

San Diego State vs Fresno State Betting Odds, Picks: Back Aztecs as Road Underdogs article feature image
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Chris Williams/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: San Diego State quarterback Jalen Bayden.

  • Fresno State hosts San Diego State in a crucial Mountain West contest.
  • The Aztecs have won back-to-back games, but have struggled ATS. Will they cover tonight?
  • Kyle Remillard previews the game and shares his best bet below.

San Diego State vs Fresno State Odds

Saturday, Oct. 29
10:30 p.m. ET
FS1
San Diego State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+9
-110
41.5
-105o / -115u
+260
Fresno State Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-9
-110
41.5
-105o / -115u
-315
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Fresno State was the clear favorite to win the Mountain West Conference before the season began. But now, the Bulldogs face a crucial matchup with San Diego State to stay atop the West Division.

Fresno’s season was turned upside down after star quarterback Jake Haener was injured in Week 3 against USC. Since his departure, the program has struggled offensively, and a matchup against a stout San Diego State defense doesn’t do it any favors.

San Diego State enters this matchup riding its first two-game win streak of the year. However, this team hasn’t been great for bettors, as it’s just 2-5 against the spread this season.

Both programs are part of a three-way tie atop the division, so the outcome of this matchup will be pivotal for the standings at the end of the year.


San Diego State will go as far as its defense can carry it, and that’s been proven through the first seven games of the season.

The program’s three losses have come to Arizona, Utah and Boise State, and the defense allowed 35 points or more in all three matchups. In the Aztec’s four victories, the defense hasn’t allowed more than 14 points, holding opponents to just 10 points per game on average.

SDSU has held opponents to just 6.4 yards per pass attempt which is the 24th-best mark in the country. It’s been susceptible in the run game, allowing just shy of five yards per carry.

With a matchup against a backup quarterback, this is the perfect opportunity for San Diego State’s defense to rise up and keep the program at the top of the West Division.

It’s been a rollercoaster of a season for the San Diego State offense. Quarterback Braxton Burmeister was benched after a horrific first month of the season. The program elected to switch to senior Jalen Mayden under center, and he has revitalized the offense in the last two weeks.

Mayden was originally recruited by Mississippi State as a quarterback. He switched to safety in the offseason and has thrived as the emergency quarterback. He’s averaging 7.8 yards per pass attempt and 240 passing yards in his first two starts.

And well, the clip below will tell you a little about his athleticism.

"Are you kidding me⁉️"

Jalen Mayden takes it 32 yards for an @AztecFB TD‼️

📺: @CBSSportsNet#AtThePEAK | #MWFB | #GoAztecs pic.twitter.com/zwtfxsvkAv

— Mountain West (@MountainWest) October 23, 2022


Fresno State Bulldogs

Life without Haener has been tough for the Bulldogs. But that’s to be expected after losing a quarterback who threw for 4,000 yards and 33 touchdowns last season.

His replacement, Logan Fife, couldn’t have looked worse in his first few games under center. The sophomore quarterback lost his first two starts to UConn and Boise State, but the program has rebounded nicely with two victories over San Jose State and New Mexico.

Last week, Fresno State led New Mexico by only seven heading into halftime. But it dominated the second half, 28-3, while outgaining the Lobos, 510-138, for the game.

It was by far the best game of the year for Fife, who completed 19-of-29 passes for 225 yards with one touchdown through the air and two more on the ground.

But turnovers have been a concern for Fife, as he’s thrown an interception in every start this season, totaling six on the year.

The Fresno defense stepped up big over the last two games. It gave up an average of 35 points and 440 total yards against its first four FBS opponents but allowed an average of just 9.5 points and 240 yards to San Jose and New Mexico.

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San Diego State vs Fresno State Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how San Diego State and Fresno State match up statistically:

San Diego State Offense vs Fresno State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 117 54
Line Yards 104 105
Pass Success 122 47
Pass Blocking** 50 106
Havoc 115 19
Finishing Drives 125 77
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Fresno State Offense vs San Diego State Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 26 47
Line Yards 105 102
Pass Success 28 56
Pass Blocking** 94 99
Havoc 69 59
Finishing Drives 84 15
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 125 89
PFF Coverage 35 39
SP+ Special Teams 4 84
Seconds per Play 29.1 (117) 26.6 (73)
Rush Rate 61.4% (15) 51.4% (79)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

San Diego State vs Fresno State Betting Pick

San Diego State totaled 310 passing yards through its first five games combined. Then Mayden threw for 322 yards in his first start against Hawaii. That marked the most yards in a game without an interception by an Aztec quarterback since 2010.

This is truly one of the great stories of the college football season, and as Mayden continues to succeed, this story will get more traction at the national level.

San Diego State already has one of the top defenses in the Mountain West, and if the offense starts to click, the conference should beware. This matchup against a Haener-less Fresno State is the perfect opportunity for the Aztecs to seize their spot at the top of the West.

Fresno State has also put together two solid victories in a row, but the defense made up for Fife’s mistakes against San Jose State, and New Mexico was a cakewalk. That’s not going to cut it in this matchup against a strong San Diego State defense and offense that’s trending in the right direction.

I love taking an underdog in a game with a low total. I’m expecting a tight matchup that will come down to the wire to determine who will remain atop the division. 

Pick: San Diego State +8.5 ⋅ Play to +7

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