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The Southern Miss Golden Eagles take on the Troy Trojans in Troy, Alabama, on Tuesday, Oct. 6. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Troy is favored by -10.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -410. Southern Miss, meanwhile, enters as a +10.5 underdog and is +315 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 50.5 points.
Here’s my Southern Miss vs. Troy prediction and college football pick for Tuesday, October 6.
Southern Miss vs Troy Prediction
- Southern Miss vs. Troy Pick: Troy -10.5
My Troy vs. Southern Miss best bet is on thr Trojans to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Southern Miss vs Troy Odds
| Southern Miss Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+10.5 -112 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | +315 |
| Troy Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-10.5 -108 | 50.5 -110o / -110u | -410 |
- Southern Miss vs Troy Spread: Troy -10.5 (-108), Southern Miss +10.5 (-112)
- Southern Miss vs Troy Over/Under: 50.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Southern Miss vs Troy Moneyline: Southern Miss +315, Troy -410
Southern Miss vs Troy College Football Preview
Southern Miss Golden Eagles Betting Preview: A Lost Season?
Southern Miss has struggled through a 1-3 start to the season, with last week’s road loss at Tulane being the ultimate demoralizer.
The Golden Eagles had chances to seize control against the rival Green Wave but couldn't finish the job despite taking a 21-14 lead into the fourth quarter.
Their bowl hopes are fading, and their next three games come against the projected top three finishers in the Sun Belt West Division.
USM will have to pull some upsets if it wants to make some noise in conference play in what's amounting to a lost season for head coach Blake Anderson.
The offense tries to remain balanced, but Southern Miss struggles to run the football consistently. The Golden Eagles are averaging 94.3 rushing yards per game and 3.3 yards per rush against FBS competition this season. The explosive chunk plays just haven't been there.
Steven Robinson has received the majority of the carries and has been consistent, but Southern Miss hasn't been strong enough on early downs to continue running the ball, which has put pressure on the passing offense to produce.
Quarterback Landry Lyddy has played well in two games as the full-time starter, as Southern Miss has attempted 81 passes the last two weeks.
Mario Sanders and AJ Little have been the most reliable receivers, but the passing game isn't explosive and probably won't be in this spot either.
The offensive line hasn't played too poorly, so Lyddy should have time to throw. If Southern Miss is going to stay in this game, he'll need to connect on some deep shots.
The defense is coming off back-to-back performances allowing over 430 yards while being on the field for 148 plays during that stretch.
Southern Miss' pass rush has been largely ineffective, and it has also been terrible when it comes to stopping the run. Troy will present a balanced attack in this game, so the defense will have to really bring it on the road.
Troy Trojans Betting Preview: Moving the Ball
Troy comes in at 2-2 after a bizarre showing 10 days ago in which the offense racked up 395 yards but scored just 10 points in a 21-10 loss at Utah State.
The last four possessions resulted in two turnovers and two missed field goals, as the Trojans squandered many opportunities.
This offense has had a pattern of not capitalizing on opportunities this season, but the focus during the long week was connecting on deep shots and situational execution.
Quarterback Goose Crowder has really struggled once again, a common occurrence during his tenure under center for the Trojans. Crowder is completing just 52% of his passes with a 7:4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He needs to elevate his play and start hitting receivers in stride.
Troy runs the veer-and-shoot system brought over from offensive coordinator Adam Austin, who came in from FCS Tarleton State.
Gavin Griffin and Jaheim Merriweather split carries at running back, and both are effective. The offense should produce rush explosives in this game, which will open opportunities to run the play-action game with deep shots down the seams.
If the offensive line can hold up, Crowder will have opportunities to connect. If he can take advantage, Troy could score a bunch of points here.
On the other side of the ball, the defense hasn’t played too badly this season.
The Trojans' stop unit held Missouri to just 230 yards and 13 first downs on the road a couple of weeks ago, and the front has been tough against the run.
Southern Miss will have to throw the ball to move it in this game, but the Troy defense has been excellent in obvious passing downs this season.
Southern Miss vs Troy Pick, Betting Analysis
This line opened with Troy listed as a 9.5-point favorite with a total set at 50.5. I'm willing to lay the number with the Trojans.
Troy has played decent offensive football this season against a strong SEC school and two completely underrated G6 defenses in Sam Houston and Utah State.
The offense has moved the football really well; the problem has been situational execution over the first four games.
Troy head coach Gerad Parker talked about the focus his team had in executing in the red zone and connecting on deep shots in the passing game this week.
The Trojans will move the football offensively, but it should actually happen predominantly through running the ball.
I'm not convinced Southern Miss can stop the run. Once Troy starts getting the rush explosives going, it should open up some deep shots through the air that the offense is designed to create.
Opponents have moved the ball up and down the field against the Golden Eagles over the last three weeks. The Trojans will find success here, which will create situations where the Golden Eagles have to throw the ball from behind.
Southern Miss ranks just 105th nationally in passing explosiveness, and Troy doesn't give up explosives through the air. The Trojans rank 27th nationally in passing down Success Rate allowed, so it'll be difficult for Southern Miss to put drives together without early-down success.
Troy is the stronger team, and it should be focused on the upcoming eight-game schedule in Sun Belt play.
I believe we'll see a complete showing against the Golden Eagles in this game. The Trojans should pull away for a multi-score win.
Pick: Troy -10.5
Southern Miss vs Troy Betting Trends
