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Stanford vs Cal Odds & Predictions: Betting Value on This Pac-12 Total

Stanford vs Cal Odds & Predictions: Betting Value on This Pac-12 Total article feature image
Credit:

Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Tanner McKee.

Stanford vs Cal Odds

Saturday, Nov. 19
5:30 p.m. ET
Pac-12 Network
Stanford Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+4.5
-110
46.5
-110o / -110u
+165
Cal Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-4.5
-110
46.5
-110o / -110u
-200
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The Week 12 college football slate will be unlike many others this season. And that’s because either Stanford or Cal will win a football game.

It’s a battle of three-win teams in the Pac-12 between the Cardinal and Bears this Saturday.

Stanford has dropped three straight entering the weekend. Cal, meanwhile, probably can’t remember the last time it won a game (it was Week 4).

In matchup of two teams that are a combined 7-13 against the spread, there’s only one thing left to do: Not worry about either team covering and bet the total instead.


What Stanford Offense?

Stanford’s offensive strengths: Tanner McKee is really tall.

Stanford’s offensive weaknesses: How much time do you have until you need to be somewhere important?

The Cardinal have lost more running backs to injury this season than LeBron James promised rings with the Miami Heat, and now Stanford’s resorted to a mesh-style offense to protect a line that can’t block a mannequin.

The win against Notre Dame was awesome — until you realize it somehow backfired to kick-start a five-game streak in which the offense hasn’t scored more than 16 points.

Stanford’s covered just 20% of its games this season, tying the Cardinal with two other teams for the worst bet against the spread in college football.

They’ve dropped four straight games against the spread, including a 15-14 win over Arizona in Palo Alto (-3).

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More Like the Cal Bronze Bears, Amirite?

Somehow, it almost gets worse.

Cal’s played a really clean game when the Bears have the ball — they pace the nation with just one turnover — but when it’s bad, it’s bad for Justin Wilcox’s offense.

There have been some lows amid a six-game losing streak, which includes handing Colorado its only win of the season.

The Bears allow a ton of havoc and there’s essentially no protection up front when quarterback Jack Plummer drops back, as they’re basically bottom-10 against opposing pass rushers.

Cal’s been a good bet to the over in its past three games, but that’s all credit to a defense that has surrendered 121 points over that span.


Stanford vs Cal Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Stanford and Cal match up statistically:

Stanford Offense vs. Cal Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 74 122
Line Yards 120 100
Pass Success 97 123
Pass Blocking** 112 131
Havoc 106 121
Finishing Drives 65 75
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Cal Offense vs. Stanford Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 96 124
Line Yards 105 129
Pass Success 108 65
Pass Blocking** 120 59
Havoc 94 78
Finishing Drives 79 109
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 90 80
PFF Coverage 102 115
SP+ Special Teams 12 103
Seconds per Play 26.1 (60) 26.5 (68)
Rush Rate 47.6% (104) 41.8% (124)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Stanford vs Cal Betting Pick

I’ve said all I need to say about these two offenses — or lack thereof.

Stanford (4.7) and Cal (5.1) are the second- and third-worst teams from a yards-per-play standpoint in the Pac-12.

Mind you, the Cardinal are only 0.1 yards better than Colorado, and more than half the college football fan base — Buffs fans included — would likely agree they don’t even count this year.

It’s the lowest total on the board in the conference for a reason, and I think there’s a little bit of cushion, too.

Wilcox has been such a good under bet in Pac-12 play, going 25-12 over his past 37 games. I don’t think the trend bucks against a hapless Stanford offense.

Pick: Under 45.5 (Play to 44.5)

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