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Toledo vs Western Michigan Odds & Picks: Expect a Blowout on Friday

Toledo vs Western Michigan Odds & Picks: Expect a Blowout on Friday article feature image
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Joshua Bessex/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Toledo’s Jacquez Stuart.

Toledo vs Western Michigan Odds

Friday, Nov. 25
12 p.m. ET
ESPNU
Toledo Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-8
-110
51
-115o / -105u
-315
Western Michigan Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+8
-110
51
-115o / -105u
+250
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Though Toledo has locked up the MAC West, it won’t take Western Michigan lightly in this spot.

The Rockets are 7-4 on the season and 5-2 in conference play. That record is good enough to secure a bid for the MAC Championship game. Toledo owns a one-game advantage over Eastern Michigan but also has the tiebreaker thanks to a 27-24 win over the Eagles earlier in the year.

But Toledo is coming off a heartbreaking 42-35 loss over Bowling Green that came in the final seconds.

BOWLING GREEN (+465 ML) TOUCHDOWN!!#MACTIONpic.twitter.com/a7byODrWIn

— Action Network (@ActionNetworkHQ) November 16, 2022

We will surely see a strong effort from Toledo, which will want to avoid entering the conference Championship on a two-game skid.

Western Michigan enters this matchup fresh off a snow-filled 12-10 victory over Central Michigan. However, the Broncos have one of the worst offenses in college football.

Will Toledo drop another matchup due to a lack of motivation?


Toledo Rockets

Toledo was the clear-cut favorite before the season to hoist the MAC Championship. Heading into the final week, the Rockets have lived up to those expectations by locking in the MAC West Division title.

The offense has been one of the top units in the conference behind quarterback Dequan Finn.

The sophomore has thrown 21 touchdowns to 10 interceptions while averaging 7.6 yards per pass. He ranks second on the roster in rushing yards, averaging 5.7 per carry while finding the end zone eight additional times.

But he has dealt with some injuries this season and was held out of the contest last week against Bowling Green. True freshman Tucker Gleason has impressed in his two starts this season, throwing three touchdowns in each matchup.

But the Rockets defense will headline this battle.

The front seven is one of the most dominant in the conference, allowing just 4.1 yards per carry. The secondary has held opponents to 6.4 yards per pass attempt, which ranks 23rd in the country.

It was exposed by Bowling Green quarterback Matt McDonald last week, as it allowed 395 yards passing. But Western Michigan is averaging 175 passing yards per game and has thrown for over 250 yards only once this season, so it holds a significant advantage.

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Western Michigan Broncos

It’s been a tough season for Western Michigan, which hasn’t found a way to replace the offensive production lost in the offseason.

The Broncos lost five of their top six pass-catchers, highlighted by Skyy Moore, who is now with the Kansas City Chiefs. With a new quarterback at the helm, the offense has taken a hit and has averaged only 16 points per game.

Western Michigan’s 4-7 record is a bit deceiving. One of those wins came over FCS New Hampshire, while its other three victories all came by less than seven points. The seven losses have come by an average of 17 points per game, including five blowouts.

The main source of the problems has come from a lack of an aerial attack. Quarterback Jack Salopek started the season under center and threw seven touchdowns to 10 interceptions. He completed only 50% of his passes and was sent to the bench after throwing five interceptions to Ohio.

Freshman Treyson Bourguet has since taken over, but the results have been similar. Bourguet has thrown two touchdowns and one interception in his 109 pass attempts. He’s also completing just 50% of his passes while averaging 6.4 yards per attempt.

That has led the Broncos to the 121st-best mark in yards per pass attempt this season.

Though they own a rush rate of 55%, the group averages just 3.6 yards per carry against FBS foes. Toledo’s defense was just exposed for 395 yards through the air against Bowling Green, but Western Michigan doesn’t have the firepower to produce similar numbers.


Toledo vs Western Michigan Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Toledo and Western Michigan match up statistically:

Toledo Offense vs. Western Michigan Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 70 101
Line Yards 71 63
Pass Success 47 88
Pass Blocking** 95 21
Havoc 101 23
Finishing Drives 19 32
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Western Michigan Offense vs. Toledo Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 121 14
Line Yards 117 40
Pass Success 107 38
Pass Blocking** 106 20
Havoc 119 21
Finishing Drives 125 120
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 17 45
PFF Coverage 12 75
SP+ Special Teams 127 121
Seconds per Play 24.1 (24) 27.3 (88)
Rush Rate 57.1% (38) 57.1% (37)
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.

Toledo vs Western Michigan Betting Pick

Finn’s status is unknown for this game, but the Rockets have proven they have a strong second option with Gleason. Whoever is under center should be able to thrive against a Western Michigan defense that ranks 107th nationally by allowing 8.0 yards per pass attempt this season.

Western Michigan’s offense has been hard to watch at times. Both quarterbacks have shown little hope of getting an aerial attack started. All signs indicate it will be Treyson Bourguet getting his fifth start in a row, but he has yet to pass for over 200 yards to date and is completing only 50% of his passes.

Life will be difficult for the true freshman, who will have his toughest assignment yet against a stout Toledo defense.

I’m expecting Toledo to come out inspired after its upset loss to Bowling Green last week. The Rockets will want to right the ship and head into the MAC Championship firing on all cylinders.

Pick: Toledo -7.5 (Play to -9)

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