College Football Odds, Picks for Tulsa vs. FAU

Florida Atlantic welcomes Tulsa to FAU Stadium Saturday night for the Owls’ American Athletic Conference debut.

FAU left Conference USA over the summer and also hired a new leader in former Texas and Houston coach Tom Herman.

Meanwhile, the 3-2 Golden Hurricane enter off consecutive wins over Northern Illinois and Temple.

The Owls have had extra time to prepare for this matchup and are coming off a bye, but I still believe the visitors possess all of the betting value in this contest.

FAU isn’t the only team rolling out a new coach. Tulsa also went in a new direction this summer and brought in former Ohio State offensive coordinator Kevin Wilson.

His offense has already been on display this season and Tulsa, despite dealing with multiple quarterback injuries, ranks 31st in the country in rush offense.

Tulsa has already started three different players under center this year and with Cardell Williams playing so well in the last two victories, I don’t believe the coaching staff will be rushing Braylon Braxton back into action.

On the defensive side of the ball, the Hurricane defense ranks in the top 20 in turnovers and has racked up 10 takeaways through five games.

That could be a key stat against an Owls offense that ranks 125th in giveaways.

In addition to the move to a new conference, there was a lot of excitement surrounding Herman's hire at FAU. He led both Houston and Texas to bowl games in each of his six seasons.

However, the success hasn't shown up yet for the Owls, and the schedule hasn’t helped Herman’s transition to Boca Raton, Florida.

FAU has played on the road at two Power Five schools — Clemson and Illinois. Herman’s squad also had to play Ohio, one of the top teams in the Mid-American Conference.

Another issue has been the health of quarterback Casey Thompson. The transfer from Nebraska is out for the season after suffering a knee injury in the Clemson loss, which means Daniel Richardson will continue to be the guy throwing the football.

With the advanced metrics on defense not looking good, there will be a lot of pressure on Richardson to put up some points and sustain drives if the Owls are going to be successful.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Tulsa and Florida Atlantic match up statistically:

Tulsa Offense vs. Florida Atlantic Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	50	93
Line Yards	37	99
Pass Success	48	75
Havoc	126	111
Finishing Drives	34	85
Quality Drives	83	50

Florida Atlantic Offense vs. Tulsa Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	111	73
Line Yards	35	100
Pass Success	95	128
Havoc	118	115
Finishing Drives	122	93
Quality Drives	119	83

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	123	7
PFF Coverage	133	53
Special Teams SP+	54	95
Middle 8	85	132
Seconds per Play	26.1 (52)	24.2 (21)
Rush Rate	67.1% (7)	39.3% (126)

When you compare these teams, Tulsa's offense is the one unit that has the clear advantage. Regardless of who starts at quarterback, I trust the Golden Hurricane to put points on the board.

So, my best bet is to take the Golden Hurricane at +4 at DraftKings. I also wouldn’t be against a sprinkle on the moneyline at a plus price.

For starters, the visitors rank 50th in Rushing Success Rate and 37th in Line Yards. Tulsa should be able to control the line of scrimmage against an FAU defense that's outside the top 90 in both metrics.

Meanwhile, Tulsa's offense is in the top 50 in both Passing Success Rate (48th) and Finishing Drives (34th), while the Owls are in the bottom 30 in most of those offensive categories.

Yes, Florida Atlantic has had a tough schedule, but Tulsa has also played No. 7 Washington and No. 12 Oklahoma.

I don’t love fading a team off a bye, but I also feel Tulsa’s offense has a lot more potential for points and can cover on the road.