Mark Zerof-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Middle Tennessee State Head Coach Rick Stockstill.
- UAB and Middle Tennessee State will face off for the Conference USA title on Saturday (1:30 p.m. ET, CBS Sports Network).
- The two teams played last week, with Middle Tennessee winning, 27-3, easily falling under the closing total of 51.
- With high winds and a chance of rain this weekend, the over/under has dropped from 47 to 44.
On Saturday, we literally have a rematch of last Saturday’s game between the UAB Blazers and Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders, this time with the Conference USA title on the line.
Last week, Middle Tennessee dealt UAB its first conference loss of the season.
Though the spread is seeing some interesting betting activity with UAB moving to a 1-point favorite at some books, the over/under is what has piqued my curiosity.
One week ago, these two teams played in fine weather — no rain, temperatures in the upper 50s and winds of just 7 mph.
This weekend is calling for showers and crosswinds approaching 20 mph.
>> All odds as of 12 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time college football odds and track your bets
With just 30 total points being scored in the teams’ previous meeting, the public was already eyeing the under, which is getting 71% of bets.
However, sharp bettors have hit it as well, and I believe the forecast has something to do with it.
The total has dropped from 47 to 44. Last weekend’s game opened at 52 and closed at 51.
Historically, this has been a smash spot for unders. Games with double-digit wind speeds in December have gone under 25 of 38 times, according to Bet Labs.
In addition, games at any point of the season with at least 15 mph winds have gone under almost 58% of the time.