UNLV vs. Wyoming Betting Picks & Odds: How Windy Weather Is Creating Value

UNLV vs. Wyoming Betting Picks & Odds

Wyoming Spread: -9
UNLV Spread: +9
Wyoming Moneyline: -350
UNLV Moneyline: +270
Over/Under: 47.5
Time: 8 p.m. ET
TV Channel: ESPNU

Odds as of Friday at 10 a.m. and via PointsBet, where Action Network users get an exclusive 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

There are no sure things in sports betting. As much as Twitter wants to tell you about "locks," they simply don't exist. As bettors, all we can do is get our money down on wagers offering value and at the best possible lines.

One way to accomplish this is to aggregate multiple tools and systems and look for agreement regarding which games are smart bets.

And when it comes to college football's Week 5 slate, our Action Pro Systems and power ratings and both finding value on Saturday's UNLV vs. Wyoming matchup.

Let's look at how bettors should approach this game, and the multiple reasons why it's offering so much value.

UNLV vs. Wyoming Betting Preview

The betting masses look to be correct on this game, as 79% of bets on the total have hit the under. This isn't all that surprising considering Wyoming ranks 110 out of 130 teams in plays per game this season, with UNLV checking in at 78.

The Action Network's suite of betting tools and data agree that the under is the smart way to play this matchup.

Rushing Statistics Pro System

Both UNLV and Wyoming average at least 215 yards per game on the ground. When two teams that rush the ball well play each other in games with totals below 59, the under has hit 55.7% of the time since 2005.

Windy Unders Pro System

Even if these teams decide to try and strike quickly through the air, the forecast in Laramie isn't ideal for passing offense.

Sports Insights' weather data is forecasting steady 20-mph winds blowing across the field throughout the game. In games played with consistent breezes of at least 13 mph, unders are 483-368-13 (56.8%) since 2005.

In fact, when those winds reach 20 mph, the win rate for unders spikes to 61.8% over that span.

Line Value

And if those systems don't provide enough reasons to like the under, Collin Wilson's college football power ratings also see plenty of value in the current number.

The UNLV vs. Wyoming total currently sits at 47.5 at PointsBet, but Wilson has it projected at 44.3.

Once again, this doesn't mean the under is a lock, but provides one more piece of evidence that the final score will fall below the closing total.