Wilson: My Projected Over/Under for Every Week 5 College Football Game

Wilson: My Projected Over/Under for Every Week 5 College Football Game article feature image

Justin Ford-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Cal defense

Las Vegas has done it once again. Circa Sports continues to put out college football totals on Sunday during the NFL’s first slate of games.

No other operator has released totals within 24 hours of Circa, allowing plenty of time for gamblers to assess the lines that will be released at their books.

So how do totals get made? Oddsmakers assign total point value to each FBS team, then adjust for weather and pace to make a game total.

Our total projections below are a combination of plays per game, yards per play, and adjusted pace. Ratings in standard and passing downs run rate also dictate movement in a projection. Oddsmakers adjust totals based on game results, while our projections rely on a bit of mathematics.

Be sure to check out the The Action Network power ratings that are built as result of injuries, true box score results and advanced stats to find betting value on opening point spreads. Our Week 5 projections are here.

Follow me in The Action Network App to see when I bet opening lines early in the week.

Projected College Football Totals, Week 5

Notes on Totals for Week 5

  • The early forecast calls for rain in Florida and Utah. Home teams that could be affected include Utah State, Utah, Nevada, Wyoming, South Florida and Florida State.
  • Winds projected over 15 mph are expected at home games for Oklahoma and Baylor.
  • Plenty of teams have seen an increase in plays per game through the first month of the season. Under new offensive coordinator Mark Whipple, Pitt has moved from 66.1 to 79.5. TCU has also had an increase from 70.2 per game to 83.
  • Teams with a dip in plays per game include UCLA from 73.8 to 50.2, Colorado from 75.3 to 54.5 and Baylor from 80.2 to 63.5
  • Oklahoma, Georgia, Ohio State and Alabama have a yards per play differential above +3.9. Baylor is currently at +4.0 and Iowa State is +4.6
  • Conversely UTEP and UTSA are the bottom of yards per play differential at -3.7 and -4.2, respectively. The lowest Power 5 programs are Vanderbilt -2.8, Georgia Tech -2.5 and UCLA -2.5.

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