The South Florida Bulls take on the Florida Gators in Gainesville, Florida, on Saturday, Sept. 6. Kickoff is set for 4:15 p.m. ET on the SEC Network.
Florida is favored by 18 points on the spread with a moneyline of -850. USF, meanwhile, comes in at +575 to pull off the upset. The total is set at 56.5 points.
Here’s my USF vs. Florida prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 6.
USF vs Florida Prediction
- USF vs. Florida Pick: 1H Under 28.5
My Florida vs. USF best bet is on both teams to go under the total in the first half. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
USF vs Florida Odds
| USF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+18 -110 | 57 -110o / -110u | +575 |
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-18 -110 | 57 -110o / -110u | -850 |
- USF vs Florida Spread: Florida -18, USF +18
- USF vs Florida Over/Under: 57 Points
- USF vs Florida Moneyline: USF +575, Florida -850
USF vs Florida Preview
South Florida Bulls Betting Preview: New G5 Bully?
South Florida comes into this one fresh off an upset victory over Boise State last week (which was called by Action Network's own Mike Calabrese).
The Bulls surged from the second quarter on, as Boise was unable to get the rushing attack going or convert situationally in the red zone or on third down.
It was encouraging to see improvement from a South Florida defense that has handcuffed this team at times in prior seasons. USF allowed only 6-of-17 third-down attempts to be converted and stopped Boise State on downs twice in the red zone.
Offensively, it took some time to get going for USF, but we eventually saw the offensive line open some holes and quarterback Byrum Brown create plays with his feet on the move.
The Bulls did benefit from four long, explosive pass plays to set themselves up for scoring opportunities against a Boise defense that was known for creating Havoc and getting pressure on the opposition — but also for surrendering those explosives.
The first 20 minutes of this game looked really choppy for USF offensively, and it will have to come out firing against Florida on scripted drives in order to avoid falling behind early here.
Florida Gators Betting Preview: Easy Win in Week 1
Florida was on cruise control against Long Island. This game was over after five minutes.
Florida returned a fumble for a touchdown on the third play from scrimmage and after a quick three-and-out, scored again six plays later.
Long Island posted only two first downs, went 1-of-12 on third down and had one play longer than 12 yards. This wasn’t a fair fight, but Florida looked very strong defensively and showed no weakness.
Offensively, Florida did what was expected against an overmatched opponent. Quarterback DJ Lagway completed 15-of-18 passes for 120 yards and three touchdowns before watching the second half from the sidelines.
The ground game was sharp, and the receivers caught the ball well in Week 1.
USF vs Florida Pick, Betting Analysis
My opinion on this one is to look at the first-half under, which sits at 28.5.
This is going to be a test for South Florida, which really looked out of sync early against Boise State. Brown wasn't comfortable for the first three drives and didn’t create plays with his legs.
USF aligns its wide receivers very wide to the sidelines and throws a ton of outside screen passes. None of that worked against Boise State, and Florida's secondary is too strong for it to work here.
Scripted drives are going to have to be managed carefully here, so I'd expect USF to take a different approach here.
I don’t think South Florida will be able to just line up out of the gun and run the ball conventionally against the Gators' front seven, so I'd look for them to get Brown in situations where he has options to run with it or dump the ball off short.
Long, methodical drives are to be expected for South Florida, as the Gators' secondary is strong, experienced and won't get beat deep.
Defensively, USF found a recipe against Boise State to contain the rushing attack and prevent explosives against the pass.
If the front seven can hold up in the run game, I think the Bulls have a chance to keep this game competitive for a half. The only way they do this is by receiving excellent linebacker play from Mac Harris and Jhalyn Shuler.
I'm concerned about the South Florida defense eventually being caught out of position or the offense having to press for scores, which could cause the total to get out of hand. However, I think we see a defensive game plan that can cause problems for Florida initially, along with a different approach to USF's scripted drives during the “feeling out” process.
We've seen the Bulls play up in this spot before twice, going toe-to-toe with Alabama and also playing Florida competitively post-COVID. Florida will still pull away here, but I'll bet the first half starts slow.
Pick: 1H Under 28.5
