UTSA vs. FIU Odds, Picks & Predictions: Expect Roadrunners’ Offense to Dominate
Ronald Cortes/Getty Images. Pictured: UTSA wide receiver De’Corian Clark (left) and quarterback Frank Harris (right).
- Frank Harris and UTSA travel to South Florida to take on one of the worst teams in FBS.
- FIU actually has two wins, but one came in a comeback victory over FCS Bryant.
- How is Matt Wispe betting this game? Read below!
UTSA vs. FIU Odds
| UTSA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-33.5 -115 | 63.5 -110o / -110u | -10000 |
| FIU Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+33.5 -105 | 63.5 -110o / -110u | +1600 |
UTSA travels to Miami to take on Florida International in a Friday night Conference USA game.
The Roadrunners enter this game with a 4-2 record and a 2-0 record in conference play. They're 3-3 against the spread and have gone over the total in five of their six games.
FIU, meanwhile, enters with a 2-3 record and an 0-1 mark in conference play. The Panthers are 1-4 against the spread and have gone under in three of their five games this season.
It will be a warm and humid night in Miami with temperatures in the low 80s. Winds may have an impact on special teams with forecasted wind speeds ranging from 9.3 to 10.7 miles per hour.
UTSA Roadrunners
After a 12-2 2021 season, Jeff Traylor's Roadrunners have started a bit slower through the first six games of 2022. UTSA lost two of its first three games but has won its last three, including two conference games.
It has averaged 37.3 points per game and 6.5 yards per play with a 50% Success Rate. It has also put up 4.74 points per opportunity at a blazing 22.8 seconds per play.
The Roadrunners are passing the ball on 54% of plays and have averaged 39.3 pass attempts per game. Starting quarterback Frank Harris is completing 68.9% of his passes for an average of 8.9 yards per attempt. He's tossed 13 touchdowns to five interceptions while also tacking on five rushing scores.
As a team, UTSA has a 53% Passing Success Rate and averages 4.8 20-plus yard passes per game.
The 2021 UTSA offense revolved around running back Sincere McCormick, who averaged 22.9 of the team's 39.2 rush attempts per game. This season's offense is playing faster with a more balanced approach.
Brenden Brady leads the team with 386 rushing yards and five scores with Harris serving as the second-leading rusher. As a team, the Roadrunners own a 49% Rushing Success Rate and are averaging 3.9 yards per rush.
The offensive line is generating 3.47 Line Yards per attempt and has allowed a 13.3% Stuff Rate. This O-line has been battling injuries at tackle all season but has managed to be productive regardless.
The defense has struggled early, allowing an average of 33 points per game on 6.1 yards per play. On a per-play basis, however, it's held opponents to a 36% Success Rate with particular success against the run. Its 32% Rushing Success Rate Allowed ranks fifth nationally.
The areas of concern for this defense are its propensity to allow explosive plays and its relatively low Havoc rate. It gives up an average of five plays per game that go over 20 yards and generate Havoc on just 17% of plays.
Florida International Panthers
There's very little sugarcoating with this FIU team. Despite its two wins, it's among the worst teams in the FBS.
The Panthers have averaged just 16.6 points per game and 4.6 yards per play. They own a 37% Success Rate and average 2.76 points per opportunity despite playing at an incredibly fast pace of 22.9 seconds per play.
The Panthers own the seventh-highest passing rate at 60% and have averaged 41.2 pass attempts per game. Quarterback Grayson James has completed 62% of his passes for an average of 5.7 yards per attempt while tossing seven touchdowns to four interceptions.
As a team, the Panthers boast a 40% Passing Success Rate, which ranks 87th nationally. They're not very explosive through the air, completing an average of two 20-plus yard passes per game.
FIU averages 29.8 rushes per contest for an average of 3.4 yards per attempt. It has balanced carries among three ballcarriers, with three players recording over 30 carries.
Lexington Joseph leads the team in attempts, yards and scores with 235 yards and one touchdown.
As a team, the Panthers have an abysmal 34% Rushing Success Rate. Their offensive line has generated 2.67 Line Yards per attempt and has allowed a 23% Stuff Rate.
Through five games, FIU has given up an average of 38.2 points per game, which ranks 124th nationally. It's allowed at least 30 points to all but one opponent this season with that team being New Mexico State, which scored 21.
The Panthers allow a 45% Success Rate on defense and have generated Havoc on 13% of plays. They also give up 4.48 points per opportunity and allow 6.2 20-plus yard plays per game.
UTSA vs. FIU Matchup Analysis
Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UTSA and FIU match up statistically:
UTSA Offense vs. FIU Defense
 | Offense | Defense |  Edge |
| Rush Success | 50 | 100 | |
| Line Yards | 33 | 70 | |
| Pass Success | 12 | 103 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 86 | 10 | |
| Havoc | 33 | 104 | |
| Finishing Drives | 23 | 116 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
FIU Offense vs. UTSA Defense
| Offense | Defense | Edge |
| Rush Success | 121 | 5 | |
| Line Yards | 122 | 39 | |
| Pass Success | 105 | 51 | |
| Pass Blocking** | 79 | 73 | |
| Havoc | 70 | 85 | |
| Finishing Drives | 121 | 66 | |
| ** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.) | |||
Pace of Play / Other
| | |
| PFF Tackling | 127 | 115 |
| PFF Coverage | 97 | 107 |
| SP+ Special Teams | 97 | 59 |
| Seconds per Play | 22.8 (13) | 22.9 (14) |
| Rush Rate | 48.8% (93) | 42.0% (121) |
Data via CollegeFootballData.com (CFBD), FootballOutsiders, SP+, Pro Football Focus and SportSource Analytics.
UTSA vs. FIU Betting Pick
UTSA has an advantage in nearly all of the meaningful statistics, which helps explain the spread — and it's the large spread that has sharps betting on the underdog to cover.
As of writing, 52% of bets and 66% of the money has landed FIU to cover. My instinct still leans in favor of UTSA to comfortably win this game, but at 33.5 points, it's not my preferred play of the game.
When it comes to the total, it's hard to overlook the impact of the pace of play. Both teams rank in the top 15 when it comes to pace of play, so there will be plenty of opportunities to score points. But even then, relying on an FIU offense that has scored just 16.6 points per game makes this just a lean and not my preference.
To avoid any reliance on Florida International, my preferred play is UTSA to eclipse the lofty team total of 48.5. The Panthers will struggle to stop a Roadrunners offense that will be the second-best they've faced all season.
Pick: UTSA Team Total Over 48.5 (Play to 50)
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