The Alaska Senate race 2026 polls have tightened into one of the closest contests of the midterm cycle, and the prediction markets are leaning the same direction as the pollsters.
Mary Peltola is the favorite over incumbent Dan Sullivan on both Polymarket and Kalshi, though the two exchanges aren't pricing the race identically.
With Election Day set for November 3, Peltola vs Sullivan polls have shown a Democrat with a real chance to flip a seat Republicans have held since 2015.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Mary Peltola | YES (74¢) | $35.14 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Dan Sullivan | YES (28¢) | $257.14 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Democratic Party | YES (74¢) | $35.14 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Republican Party | YES (27¢) | $270.37 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Alaska Senate race 2026 odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
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Polymarket Alaska Senate Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
The Polymarket Alaska Senate Race market prices each candidate as a separate "Yes" or "No" contract, running from 1¢ to 99¢ and mapping directly to the market's implied probability of that candidate winning.
A "Yes" contract on Mary Peltola settles at $1.00 if she wins in November and $0 if she loses, while the Sullivan contract pays out the same way in reverse.
The market resolves once Alaska's general election is officially called for a winner on or after November 3, 2026.
Mary Peltola (YES 74¢ / NO 27¢, -1 pt)
Peltola is trading at 74¢ (74%), down a point on the week but still the clear favorite on Polymarket.
The Democrat's edge tracks with a string of 2026 polling that has shown her ahead of Sullivan by anywhere from roughly 1 to 8 points, including a recent New York Times/Siena survey that put her lead at 7 points.
Traders appear to be pricing in her statewide name recognition from the 2022 and 2024 House races, along with Sullivan's noticeably softer standing compared to his 2020 landslide.
Dan Sullivan (YES 28¢ / NO 73¢)
Sullivan is priced at 28¢ (28%) on Polymarket, with no fresh movement this week after the board settled following his primary win.
The incumbent still has Alaska's red lean and Donald Trump's endorsement working in his favor, but Sabato's Crystal Ball recently shifted the race from a toss-up to "Leans Democratic," a notable downgrade for an Alaska Republican.
Lisa Murkowski's endorsement gives Sullivan a credible bridge to the state's large bloc of independent voters, the group polling suggests could ultimately decide the race.
Alaska Senate Race 2026 Polls Meet Kalshi: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi frames the same contest as an "Alaska Senate winner?" market, with contracts on which party keeps the seat rather than on each named candidate individually.
A "Yes" on the Democratic Party contract settles at $1.00 if Peltola wins the seat, while a "Yes" on the Republican Party contract settles at $1.00 if Sullivan holds it.
Like Polymarket, this market resolves once the 2026 general election is officially called.
Democratic Party, Mary Peltola (YES 74¢ / NO 27¢, -3 pts)
Kalshi has the Democratic Party contract, effectively Peltola, at 74¢ (74%), down 3 points this week even though she still holds a real edge.
That pullback lines up with a tightening from the mid-70s seen earlier in the fall, as Republican-aligned groups have started spending more heavily to shore up Sullivan down the stretch.
Peltola's strength with independents and her standing as the only Democrat to win statewide office in Alaska in recent years keep her favored despite the dip.
Republican Party, Dan Sullivan (YES 27¢ / NO 74¢, +3 pts)
Sullivan's party contract climbed 3 points on Kalshi to 27¢ (27%), the clearest sign yet that traders see the incumbent clawing back some ground.
Murkowski's endorsement and a late push from national Republicans appear to be the main drivers, even as most 2026 polling still has Sullivan trailing.
Alaska's history of underestimating Republican turnout in pre-election polls gives Sullivan backers a reason to think the real gap is tighter than the board suggests.
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How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on Peltola vs Sullivan Polls
Polymarket and Kalshi agree on the basic shape of the race: Peltola is favored on both exchanges, and neither book has Sullivan above 28¢.
Where they diverge is direction and magnitude. Polymarket's Peltola contract ticked down just 1 point to YES 74¢, while Kalshi's Democratic Party contract fell a steeper 3 points to the same YES 74¢ level, with its Republican counterpart climbing to YES 27¢.
That bigger net swing on Kalshi likely reflects a deeper, more actively traded political book that reacts faster to new polling and endorsement news, while Polymarket's user base can be a touch slower to reprice a down-ballot Senate race.
Alaska Senate Race 2026 Price Analysis – Market Price Influencers
Both markets have moved toward Peltola since the summer, even as the magnitude of that shift differs by exchange.
The Polymarket Alaska Senate Race contract has held fairly steady in the 70s for Peltola, while Kalshi's book has been more reactive, swinging several points in a single week on fresh polling.
The underlying narrative driving both boards is the same: Sullivan is running in a far tougher environment than his 12-point win in 2020, Sabato's Crystal Ball has moved the race to "Leans Democratic," and Peltola enters as an unusually strong Democratic recruit for a red state.
Watch for Murkowski's continued campaigning for Sullivan and any new statewide polling in the final weeks before November 3 to see whether the Alaska Senate race 2026 polls keep tightening or whether Sullivan's recent uptick on Kalshi has further room to run.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Mary Peltola | YES (74¢) | $35.14 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Dan Sullivan | YES (28¢) | $257.14 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Democratic Party | YES (74¢) | $35.14 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Republican Party | YES (27¢) | $270.37 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade Alaska Senate Race 2026 on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the Politics tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the Elections tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Alaska Senate Race 2026: Final Thoughts
Peltola enters the stretch run as the favorite on both Polymarket and Kalshi, but the race is still a genuine toss-up by Senate standards, not a runaway.
Sullivan's small uptick on Kalshi is worth watching, and if the Peltola vs Sullivan polls keep tightening in the final weeks, expect both boards to keep adjusting right up to November 3.
Alaska Senate Race 2026 FAQs
How do the Alaska Senate race 2026 polls compare to the Polymarket and Kalshi odds?
The Alaska Senate race 2026 polls and the prediction markets are telling a similar story: Peltola ahead, Sullivan within range. Most 2026 surveys have shown Peltola leading by 1 to 8 points, and both Polymarket and Kalshi currently price her as roughly a 3-to-1 favorite.
What is the Polymarket Alaska Senate Race contract based on?
The Polymarket Alaska Senate Race market settles based on the official outcome of the November 3, 2026, general election, with separate "Yes/No" contracts for Mary Peltola and Dan Sullivan.
When do the Polymarket and Kalshi Alaska Senate markets resolve?
Both markets resolve once Alaska's general election is officially called, which typically happens in the days following November 3, 2026, once ranked-choice tabulation is complete.
Why do Peltola vs Sullivan polls differ from the prediction market prices?
Polls measure a snapshot of voter sentiment, while prediction markets like Polymarket and Kalshi blend current polling with trader expectations about turnout, momentum, and late-breaking news, which is why the market price can move faster or slower than the raw polling average.
Why does Kalshi price the Democratic Party contract differently than Polymarket's Peltola contract?
Kalshi structures its market around party control of the seat rather than individual candidates, and its order book has shown sharper short-term swings than Polymarket's, likely reflecting a more active base of political traders reacting quickly to new polls and endorsements.
How do I trade the Alaska Senate race on Polymarket or Kalshi?
Sign up on either platform, deposit funds, and buy a "Yes" or "No" contract on the candidate or party you expect to win, then hold it to resolution or sell your position before the market closes.
What is Dan Sullivan's chance of winning re-election according to the markets?
As of this writing, Sullivan is priced at 28¢ on Polymarket and 27¢ on Kalshi, implying roughly a 27-28% chance of holding his seat according to current trader sentiment.
