Best Home Run Bets Today | 11 MLB Predictions for Home Run Props Today (Polymarket Odds)

Kyle Schwarber and Junior Caminero are locked in a home run race that's carrying into the season's final stretch, Yordan Alvarez is trying to shake off a September power outage, and Teoscar Hernández is as hot as anyone in baseball right now.

Today's 11-game Polymarket home run slate spans the whole league, from an Athletics catcher freshly off the injured list to a Dodgers outfielder in the middle of a scorching stretch.

Use this table as the quick-scan version of our full MLB predictions breakdown, then jump into any game section for the complete rationale.

Best Home Run Bets Today: Top MLB Predictions for Sept 18, 2026

We broke down the best home run bets today across every game on the board, ranked each pick's Yes price against real recent form, and picked out our favorite Polymarket trade for the heart of the slate.

Every home run prop below is ranked from the highest implied probability down to the longest shot, based on Polymarket's Yes price at the time these tickets were pulled.

Before diving in, new traders should know about the current Polymarket promo code: ACTION, which allows new users to Deposit $10, Get a $50 Trading Bonus!

Athletics vs Guardians Prediction

The A's are well out of the race at 61-92, but Shea Langeliers just got activated on September 13 after nearly two months out with a torn meniscus, and the Guardians (78-75) are still fighting for a Wild Card spot.

Best Home Run Prop Today – Shea Langeliers

We're taking a position on Langeliers here even though the market only gives him a 16% shot.

He opened this season as the hottest power hitter in the sport before the knee injury shelved him, and the second half of last year already showed he'd turned into a legitimate 30-homer bat behind the plate.

Rust after a long layoff is the real risk, but a 16¢ price on a hitter with his raw pop looks like a market still pricing in the injury more than the talent.

On the ticket, a $100 buy at the 16¢ average price works out to roughly 625 shares, each worth $1 if the market resolves Yes; Polymarket lists the payout at $590.50, a bit above the raw share math since larger orders move through several price levels on the book.

• If Langeliers goes deep: the position pays out around $590.50, a profit near $490.50 on the $100 stake.
• If he doesn't: the full $100 is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.

It's a nearly 6-to-1 payout on a hitter who was the best power bat in baseball before he got hurt, which is the kind of risk/reward that's worth a small stake even on a rebuilding A's roster.

Red Sox vs Rays Prediction

The Rays (93-59) have already clinched a postseason berth and Junior Caminero has been the biggest reason why, while the Red Sox (83-70) are still trying to lock up their own spot.

Best Home Run Bets Today – Junior Caminero

Caminero is red hot right now, and this is exactly the kind of stretch we want to buy into.

He's up to 41 home runs, first in the American League, and has hit two walk-off homers in his last four games alone.

At just 23 years old and already chasing multiple franchise home run records, an 18.8¢ Yes price feels light for a hitter this locked in.

A $100 buy at 18.8¢ works out to roughly 532 shares, worth $1 apiece if he connects; Polymarket's listed payout of $503.40 runs a little above that raw math, which is normal once order book depth and fees get factored in.

• If Caminero homers: the position pays out around $503.40, a profit near $403.40.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is gone entirely.

It's roughly a 4-to-1 payout on a hitter riding one of the hottest power stretches in baseball this month.

Phillies vs Mets Prediction

Kyle Schwarber leads all of MLB with 45 home runs and the Phillies (85-68) are tied with the Cubs atop the NL Wild Card race, while the Mets (69-84) are playing spoiler down the stretch.

Best Home Run Prop Today – Kyle Schwarber

Schwarber sits atop the highest-priced contract on this entire slate, and for good reason.

He's the reigning MLB home run leader, chasing what would be his third career HR title, and Philadelphia badly needs every run it can get in a tight wild card race.

A 24% implied chance for the sport's single biggest home run threat is right in line with his pace all year.

A $100 buy at 24¢ nets roughly 417 shares, worth $1 each on a winning resolution; the board's $395.75 payout tracks a bit above that raw figure once order book movement and fees are factored in.

• If Schwarber connects: the position pays out around $395.75, a profit near $295.75.
• If not: the full $100 stake is lost.

Roughly 4-to-1 on the league's most prolific power hitter isn't a huge multiple, but it's a reflection of just how live his bat has been all September.

Tigers vs White Sox Prediction

Riley Greene has been unconscious lately for the Tigers (72-81), with four homers and 15 RBI over his last eight games, while the White Sox (78-75) are still mixed up in the AL Central chase.

Best Home Run Bets Today – Riley Greene

Greene is one of the best form plays on the entire board right now.

He capped a three-game sweep of the Rockies with a homer and three RBI on the 13th, and he's carrying that hot stretch into this series against Chicago.

At 20 homers on the season and clearly seeing the ball well, 19¢ feels like fair value with some upside attached.

A $100 stake at 19¢ buys about 526 shares, each worth $1 if the pick hits; the board's $498.26 payout sits above that raw math, the usual gap from order book depth on a market this size.

• If Greene goes deep: the payout lands around $498.26, a profit near $398.26.
• If not: the $100 stake is lost entirely.

Close to 5-to-1 on a left-handed bat riding this kind of power surge is a solid risk/reward look.

Blue Jays vs Rangers Prediction

Toronto (76-77) is in a gut-check stretch fighting for the final AL Wild Card spot, and George Springer has been the one carrying the offense, while the Rangers (76-77) are in an equally tight spot in the AL West.

Best Home Run Prop Today – George Springer

Springer isn't the power threat he once was, sitting at just 15 homers this season, but he's hitting .359 over his last 22 games and just launched his 300th career home run in June.

The 13% price reflects a season that's been about contact more than power, but a hitter this locked in at the plate is always a threat to run into one.

This is the longest shot on the board, and it's priced that way for a reason.

A $100 buy at 13¢ works out to roughly 769 shares, each worth $1 on a winning resolution; the listed $725.38 payout runs a bit under that raw figure, a normal gap tied to order book fees.

• If Springer connects: the payout lands around $725.38, a profit near $625.38.
• If not: the full $100 is lost.

Nearly 7-to-1 makes this a small-stake lottery ticket on a former World Series MVP who's swinging a hot bat right when Toronto needs him most.

Mariners vs Rockies Prediction

The Rockies (56-97) have lost seven straight, and the Mariners (71-82) are still mathematically alive, leaning hard on Randy Arozarena's bat to keep the flicker of a postseason push going.

Best Home Run Bets Today – Randy Arozarena

This is our featured trade for the middle of tonight's slate, and we're buying into Arozarena with real conviction.

He's slashing .298/.393/.596 in September with four home runs, and he just hit one of Seattle's five homers in a 19-1 blowout of the Athletics on the 12th.

A hitter chasing his sixth straight 20-homer, 20-steal season, in this kind of form, against a Rockies pitching staff that's been bled dry all year, is exactly the spot we want to lean into.

A $100 stake at 17¢ buys roughly 588 shares, each worth $1 if the market resolves Yes. Polymarket's listed $556.17 payout runs above that raw share math, the usual gap from order book depth on a market this size, not an error to reconcile.

• If Arozarena goes deep: the position pays out around $556.17, a profit near $456.17.
• If he doesn't: the $100 stake is lost entirely, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.

Better than 5-to-1 on a hitter in this kind of groove is the best combination of price and form on the whole board tonight.

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Braves vs Astros Prediction

Houston (77-76) is fighting to hold onto the AL West, and Yordan Alvarez has been chasing a Triple Crown all year, though his power has cooled noticeably since the calendar turned to August.

Best Home Run Prop Today – Yordan Alvarez

Alvarez remains one of the best pure hitters alive, leading the AL in average and OPS, but this is a pick that comes with a real caveat worth stating plainly.

He's hit only three home runs since the start of August and has dealt with a sore right ankle that cost him back-to-back games earlier this month.

At 24%, the market is pricing him more on name recognition and season-long numbers than his actual recent power output, which makes this a bet on a return to form rather than a continuation of current form.

A $100 buy at 24¢ works out to roughly 417 shares, each worth $1 on a Yes resolution; the board's $395.75 payout runs a bit above that raw math, the usual gap tied to order book depth.

• If Alvarez connects: the payout lands around $395.75, a profit near $295.75.
• If not: the full $100 stake is lost.

Roughly 4-to-1 on a hitter this talented is fair value, but the recent power dip is real and worth weighing before committing a larger stake.

Nationals vs Cardinals Prediction

James Wood is back from an oblique strain that cost him most of August, and while his underlying metrics still look strong, he hasn't gone deep since returning to Washington's lineup on September 2.

Best Home Run Bets Today – James Wood

Wood is a 30-homer, .924 OPS hitter having a legitimate breakout year, and the 16% price here looks more like a discount for rust than a real read on his talent.

He's hit .269 with a strong on-base rate since returning from the IL, and his exit velocity readings show no real drop-off, just a timing readjustment that's common after a month away.

A hitter this dangerous priced this low is the kind of gap we look for on a slate like this.

A $100 stake at 16.48¢ buys roughly 607 shares, each worth $1 on a winning resolution; the listed $573.47 payout tracks above that raw math, the usual order book gap.

• If Wood goes deep: the payout lands around $573.47, a profit near $473.47.
• If not: the $100 stake is lost entirely.

Close to 5.7-to-1 on a hitter with this much raw power is one of the better value plays on tonight's board.

Twins vs Angels Prediction

Royce Lewis has battled injuries all season for the Twins (71-82), most recently a bout of left shoulder soreness, but he flashed real power with two home runs over the weekend against Baltimore.

Best Home Run Prop Today – Royce Lewis

Lewis has never had a clean, healthy stretch to show what he's really capable of, and the injury history is baked directly into this price.

But when healthy, he's shown he can go on power tears in a hurry, and he just hit two homers over the weekend against the Orioles.

Against a last-place Angels club (59-94), this is a spot where his upside outweighs the injury discount.

A $100 buy at 14.25¢ works out to roughly 702 shares, each worth $1 if the pick hits; the board's $662.53 payout sits below that raw figure, the normal gap from fees and order book depth.

• If Lewis connects: the payout lands around $662.53, a profit near $562.53.
• If not: the full $100 stake is lost.

Nearly 6.6-to-1 on a hitter with legitimate power upside against one of the league's weakest clubs is a reasonable swing.

Marlins vs Padres Prediction

San Diego (84-69) has been on one of the hottest runs in baseball, and Jackson Merrill has been a huge part of it, joining the 25-25 club and going deep in three of his last three games.

Best Home Run Bets Today – Jackson Merrill

Merrill has been locked in since the All-Star break, batting .299 with 15 homers over his last 52 games, and he's carrying that form directly into this series against the Marlins.

He's now part of the 25-25 club alongside some of the best young hitters in the league this season.

At roughly 15%, the market still hasn't fully caught up to just how good he's been over the last two months.

A $100 stake at 15.98¢ buys roughly 626 shares, each worth $1 on a winning resolution; the listed $591.11 payout runs a bit above that raw math, the usual order book gap.

• If Merrill goes deep: the payout lands around $591.11, a profit near $491.11.
• If not: the $100 stake is lost entirely.

Close to 5.9-to-1 on a hitter this hot, on a team riding an extended winning streak, is one of the better value spots on the board.

Giants vs Dodgers Prediction

The Dodgers (93-60) have already clinched a fifth straight NL West title, and Teoscar Hernández is playing the best baseball of his season right when the games matter most against a Giants club (64-89) with nothing to play for.

Best Home Run Prop Today – Teoscar Hernández

Hernández has been on fire, reaching base in 13 of his last 14 games while slashing .417/.517/.771 with four home runs over that stretch.

He credits a mechanical swing adjustment for the surge, and the exit velocity readings back that up, including his hardest-hit ball of the season earlier this month.

Against a Giants pitching staff with the season already decided in Los Angeles' favor, this is exactly the kind of low-pressure spot where a hot bat keeps rolling.

A $100 buy at 19¢ works out to roughly 526 shares, each worth $1 if the pick hits; the board's $498.26 payout runs above that raw math, the usual order book gap.

• If Hernández connects: the payout lands around $498.26, a profit near $398.26.
• If not: the full $100 stake is lost.

Close to 5-to-1 on the hottest bat in this entire slate is a strong closing spot for tonight's home run card.

These 11 games aren't the only home run markets live on Polymarket tonight. Additional single-game props and full-slate contracts are available on the platform beyond what's broken down above.

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Best Home Run Bets Today: Final Thoughts on Today's MLB Predictions

Across all 11 games, the two standout home run bets today by price are Kyle Schwarber and Yordan Alvarez, both sitting at 24¢, though only one of them has been hitting home runs consistently in recent weeks.

Our featured trade of the night, Randy Arozarena at 17¢, offers the best blend of price and current form on the whole slate, and he's the pick getting the full CTA treatment above.

The longest shots, George Springer at 13¢ and Royce Lewis at 14.25¢, are the kind of tickets worth a small stake rather than a season-defining one, given the payout multiples involved.

If you're new to prediction markets, our beginner's guide to Polymarket breaks down exactly how these contracts price and settle before you commit any real money.

Whatever you decide across these MLB predictions, check the Polymarket app for live movement before first pitch, since some of these Yes prices will shift as more of today's slate gets underway.

MLB Home Run Predictions Today FAQs: Polymarket Promo Code

What is the Polymarket promo code today?

The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION, which unlocks a $50 trading bonus for new users who deposit at least $10.

What are the best home run bets today on Polymarket?

Kyle Schwarber and Yordan Alvarez carry the highest implied probability on the board at 24¢ apiece, though Randy Arozarena at 17¢ and James Wood at 16.48¢ stand out as the better value plays given their recent form.

Which pick is the featured trade in tonight's MLB predictions?

Randy Arozarena's home run prop against the Rockies is the editor's featured trade for tonight's slate, based on his hot September form and a Yes price that hasn't fully caught up to it.

How do Polymarket home run contracts work?

Each contract asks whether a specific player will hit at least one home run in that game. A Yes share pays out $1 if the player homers, and the whole position is worth nothing if they don't, since these markets settle all-or-nothing.

Who is favored to hit a home run tonight?

Kyle Schwarber and Yordan Alvarez share the highest Yes price on the board at 24¢, making them the market's top favorites among tonight's home run props.

When do today's home run markets resolve?

These contracts resolve shortly after each game finishes, once the final box score confirms whether the named player recorded a home run.

Are there more MLB home run predictions today beyond this slate?

Yes. Beyond the 11 games broken down here, Polymarket lists additional home run props and full-slate contracts for today's remaining MLB games.

How much can new users win with the Polymarket promo code ACTION?

New users who sign up with promo code ACTION and deposit at least $10 can unlock a $50 trading bonus to use across any of today's markets.