The Florida Governor race and Florida Senate race both have Republicans as heavy favorites on Polymarket and Kalshi, even as the polling has been far messier than the prices suggest.
Byron Donalds, David Jolly, Ashley Moody and Angie Nixon all have live Florida Governor election and Senate contracts on both exchanges, and Kalshi also lists a Governor-Senate combo market.
Jolly vs Donalds polls run from a flat tie to double-digit Donalds leads, while Moody vs Nixon polls range from a 2-point race to a 10-point Moody edge.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms before polls close on Tuesday, November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | Byron Donalds | YES (82¢) | $121.95 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | David Jolly | YES (20¢) | $500.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | Byron Donalds | YES (80¢) | $125.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | David Jolly | YES (21¢) | $476.19 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Ashley Moody | YES (93¢) | $107.53 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Angie Nixon | YES (9¢) | $1,111.11 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Ashley Moody | YES (91.4¢) | $109.41 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Angie Nixon | YES (9.2¢) | $1,086.96 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Florida Governor race and Florida Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
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Florida Governor Election and Florida Senate Race Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's Florida contracts are priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
Both the Florida Governor race market and the Senate market resolve on the winner of the November 3 general election.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price, since a win for one candidate is a loss for the other in each two-way race.
Florida Governor Race 2026
Polymarket prices Donalds as a better than 4-to-1 favorite, and the gap between that number and the October polling is the central story in this race.
Byron Donalds (YES 82¢ / NO 20¢)
Donalds ticked up less than a point on the board, backed by a Trump endorsement, a massive fundraising edge and Florida's Republican registration advantage.
The polling mostly supports him, with Stetson University showing him up 52-41 and the Mason-Dixon survey for NBC 6 giving him a 48-41 lead.
David Jolly (YES 20¢ / NO 82¢)
Jolly slipped less than a point, but Jolly vs Donalds polls are the reason traders haven't written him off.
Change Research had the two tied at 47% and a St. Pete Polls survey found a 45-45 dead heat, and Jolly is hoping to become the first elected Democratic governor in Florida since 1994.
Florida Senate Race 2026
The Senate board is even more lopsided, with Polymarket treating Ashley Moody as close to a lock in a special election for the seat.
Ashley Moody (YES 93¢ / NO 9¢)
Moody is the appointed incumbent, she has outraised her opponent, and Florida hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since 2012.
Moody vs Nixon polls back the favorite in most cases, including a Mason-Dixon survey that had her ahead 50-40.
Angie Nixon (YES 9¢ / NO 93¢)
Nixon, a progressive state representative from Jacksonville, won the August Democratic primary and has been the story of the race ever since.
A St. Pete Polls survey in early October had her only two points back at 47-45, a far tighter margin than a 9¢ price implies.
Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race: Kalshi Odds
Kalshi lists the same two races as regulated event contracts, with Yes and No both tradable on every line, so the board shows the full spread rather than a single implied number.
Both contracts settle on the winner of the November 3 general election, and more than $3.6 million has already traded on the Governor market alone.
Florida Governor Race 2026
Kalshi's Governor board sits within a couple of cents of Polymarket on both candidates.
Byron Donalds (YES 80¢ / NO 21¢, -1 pts)
Donalds gave back a point on Kalshi, even as Polymarket nudged him slightly higher, and 80¢ is the softest price on either exchange.
The Florida Governor election has been a money mismatch, with Donalds having raised more than $130 million to Jolly's roughly $17 million, according to figures cited by Newsweek.
David Jolly (YES 21¢ / NO 80¢, +1 pts)
Jolly gained a point as Democrats pushed for late momentum, including a scheduled campaign appearance with former President Bill Clinton.
Jolly led Donalds 49-41 among women in the Mason-Dixon poll and has run strong with independents, but he still has to overcome a Republican registration edge of roughly 1.5 million voters in Florida.
Florida Senate Race 2026
Kalshi gives Nixon a slightly better price than Polymarket, but Moody still dominates the Senate board.
Ashley Moody (YES 91.4¢ / NO 8.8¢, -0.4 pts)
Moody slipped 0.4 points, a modest move that matches the tighter Moody vs Nixon polls from St. Pete and a September Quantus survey that still had her at 50.1%.
Voters also like her better, with Quantus measuring her favorability at 54.3% against 29.8% unfavorable.
Angie Nixon (YES 9.2¢ / NO 90.9¢, +0.4 pts)
Nixon gained 0.4 points, and the board shows a small quirk: a Moody NO at 8.8¢ is cheaper than a Nixon YES at 9.2¢, even though a Nixon win is the main way that Moody NO pays.
That kind of gap can come from order-book depth on one side rather than a real disagreement about the race.
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Florida Governor-Senate Combo Bets
Kalshi also lets traders bet on how the two races land together, pairing a Governor outcome with a Senate outcome in a single contract.
A Republican sweep is the clear favorite on the board, a Jolly win paired with a Moody win is the next most likely, and both outcomes involving a Nixon win are long shots.
Kalshi is the only exchange in this piece with a combo board, and it prices all four possible pairings.
| 🏢 Platform | 🗳️ Outcome | ✅ YES | ❌ NO | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody win (GOP sweep) | YES 82¢ | NO 22¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | David Jolly and Ashley Moody win (split ticket) | YES 14¢ | NO 88¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | David Jolly and Angie Nixon win (Dem sweep) | YES 5¢ | NO 97¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Byron Donalds and Angie Nixon win (split ticket) | YES 6¢ | NO 99¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Florida Governor and Senate Races
The two boards agree on every favorite. Donalds sits at YES 82¢ on Polymarket and YES 80¢ on Kalshi, while Moody is at YES 93¢ and YES 91.4¢, respectively.
The underdogs tell the same story in reverse. Jolly trades at YES 20¢ on Polymarket and YES 21¢ on Kalshi, and Nixon is at YES 9¢ and YES 9.2¢.
Kalshi is consistently a touch friendlier to the Democrats in both races, a gap of 2¢ on the Governor favorite and roughly 1.6¢ on the Senate favorite, which is small enough to read as noise rather than a signal.
The bigger divergence is between the exchanges and the surveys. Jolly vs Donalds polls have ranged from Stetson's 52-41 Donalds lead to a 47-47 tie in Change Research's survey, yet neither board has Donalds below YES 80¢.
Moody vs Nixon polls show a similar spread, from Mason-Dixon's 10-point Moody lead to St. Pete Polls' 47-45 race, but both markets still treat her as a near lock at YES 91.4¢ or better.
Where the platforms genuinely differ is in contract design: Kalshi's combo board lets traders express a view on the two races together, while Polymarket's Governor and Senate boards here only cover each race on its own.
Florida Governor Election Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The two exchanges moved in opposite directions on the Governor race, with Polymarket nudging Donalds up less than a point and Kalshi trimming him by a full point, a sign that traders are still sorting out how much weight the split polling deserves.
That dispersion is the whole story. Stetson (+11), the James Madison Institute (+10) and Mason-Dixon (+7) all have Donalds comfortably ahead, YouGov has him up just 47-45, and both Change Research and St. Pete Polls show a tie.
The Senate race is the calmer of the two boards. Moody has led nearly every survey this fall, and the only genuine scare for her price came from a St. Pete Polls result showing her up just two points.
The overall shape is two Republican-favored races with very different levels of polling risk: a Florida Governor election where the surveys are split but the favorite still holds a wide price lead, and a Senate race where the market's confidence in Moody has barely wavered.
The next round of Jolly vs Donalds polls and Moody vs Nixon polls is the likeliest trigger for a repricing, along with the first early voting numbers. The vote-by-mail request deadline is October 22, and early voting runs October 24 through October 31, with some counties opening as early as October 19.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | Byron Donalds | YES (82¢) | $121.95 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | David Jolly | YES (20¢) | $500.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | Byron Donalds | YES (80¢) | $125.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | David Jolly | YES (21¢) | $476.19 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Ashley Moody | YES (93¢) | $107.53 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Angie Nixon | YES (9¢) | $1,111.11 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Ashley Moody | YES (91.4¢) | $109.41 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Angie Nixon | YES (9.2¢) | $1,086.96 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race: Final Thoughts
This is two Republican-favored races priced with very different levels of risk: a Florida Governor election where the polls are split between a tie and a double-digit Donalds lead, and a Senate race where Moody has led almost every survey and the market has barely flinched.
Watch the combo board for the clearest read on how traders see the two races landing together. A Donalds and Moody sweep is the dominant outcome on Kalshi, and the next batch of polling and early voting turnout is the most likely thing to change that picture before November 3.
Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race FAQs
What are the current Florida Governor race odds?
Byron Donalds is trading at 82¢ on Polymarket and 80¢ on Kalshi, while David Jolly sits at 20¢ on Polymarket and 21¢ on Kalshi.
Who is favored to win the Florida Senate race?
Ashley Moody is the heavy favorite at 93¢ on Polymarket and 91.4¢ on Kalshi, with Angie Nixon priced at 9¢ and 9.2¢, respectively.
What do the latest Jolly vs Donalds polls show?
The polls are split. Stetson University has Donalds ahead 52-41 and the James Madison Institute has him up 52-42, while Change Research shows a 47-47 tie and St. Pete Polls shows a 45-45 dead heat.
What do the latest Moody vs Nixon polls show?
A Mason-Dixon poll for NBC 6 has Moody ahead 50-40, while a St. Pete Polls survey in early October has her up just 47-45.
How do Jolly vs Donalds polls compare to Polymarket and Kalshi pricing?
The markets are more confident than the polling average suggests, with both exchanges keeping Donalds between 80¢ and 82¢ even though two recent polls show a tie.
Are Moody vs Nixon polls tightening before Election Day?
Results vary by pollster. Some surveys show Moody up eight to ten points, while an early October St. Pete Polls survey showed a two-point race, and neither exchange has moved Nixon much beyond 9¢.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi price the Florida Governor election slightly differently?
The boards are within a couple of cents of each other. Small gaps like Donalds at 82¢ versus 80¢ usually reflect different trader bases and order-book depth rather than a real disagreement about the race.
What do the Florida Governor-Senate combo bets show?
Kalshi prices a Donalds and Moody sweep at 82¢, a Jolly and Moody split at 14¢, a Donalds and Nixon split at 6¢ and a Jolly and Nixon sweep at 5¢.
When does early voting start for the Florida Governor election?
Early voting runs October 24 through October 31, though some counties begin as early as October 19, and Election Day is November 3.
How do I trade the Florida Governor race and Florida Senate race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before Election Day.
