2026 Midterm Predictions: What Prediction Markets Say vs. the Polls

The 2026 midterm predictions favor Democrats to win the House, but the Senate is a much tougher call. And in some individual races, polls and prediction markets aren't even backing the same candidate. Take Iowa, where Democrat Josh Turek holds a narrow polling lead, while traders on Polymarket US favor Republican Ashley Hinson.

That's why it's worth looking beyond polling averages and forecasts. On Kalshi and Polymarket US, for example, traders put real money behind election outcomes, and their expectations don't always match what the polls suggest.

With Election Day approaching on November 3, we're comparing both signals across congressional control and key Senate and governor races, looking at where they agree, where they differ and why.

We'll keep the numbers updated through Election Day.

2026 Midterm Predictions at a Glance

As of October 15, 2026, here's how prediction markets compare with the latest polling and forecasts:

Market prices were checked October 15, 2026 and can change throughout the day. RealClearPolling's congressional ballot average covers September 21-October 11, while the Cook Political Report projections are from October 6 (Senate) and October 9 (House).

How Prediction Markets Price the Midterm Election

Election prediction markets let traders buy and sell contracts tied to specific results, from which party controls Congress to who wins a Senate race.

Each contract is priced in cents, reflecting the market's implied probability of an outcome. For example, a Yes contract trading at 65 cents suggests traders collectively see roughly a 65% chance of the outcome happening. If it does, the contract usually pays $1 per share at settlement, subject to its market rules.

As people buy and sell, those prices can change. For instance, a new poll or campaign announcement might change what traders are willing to pay, even before the next polling average is published. Midterm polls work differently. These measure voter preferences at a particular point in time, with each survey carrying a margin of error. Polling averages bring surveys together to show where support stands.

Read more: Midterm Model Predictions, November 3 Election Odds

2026 Midterm Predictions: House Control

Democrats are favored to regain the House, with prediction markets, national polling and district-level forecasts pointing toward the same outcome.

The generic congressional ballot asks voters whether they'd support a Democrat or Republican for the House, without naming specific candidates. It gives us a sense of where each party stands nationally, but the House is decided district by district. In other words, even a sizable lead in national polling doesn't necessarily translate into a large majority.

It’s also worth remembering that midterms tend to cost the president's party House seats. This time, that's the Republicans under Donald Trump.

Looking at individual districts, Cook's October 9 forecast puts Democrats at 224-234 House seats, enough to secure a majority. The exact number will depend on how individual races turn out. Prediction markets, meanwhile, focus on whether Democrats will take control of the House, regardless of how many seats they win.

2026 Midterm Predictions: Senate Control

The Senate is a much closer race than the House. Polymarket US gives Democrats a 61% chance of taking control, while Kalshi puts that figure at 62%.

Republicans currently hold 53 Senate seats, while Democrats and the independents who caucus with them have 47. Since the Republican vice president can break a 50-50 tie, Democrats need to gain four seats to secure a majority.

So, where could those seats come from? According to the Cook Political Report's October 6 ratings, six of the seven Toss Up races are in Republican-held seats: Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Ohio and Texas. Democrats are defending the seventh in Michigan, with Georgia and New Hampshire also worth watching.

There's also North Carolina, where Cook rates the open Republican-held seat as “Likely Democratic,” giving Democrats another opportunity to pick up a seat.

Even with those opportunities, control of the Senate is still up in the air. Cook sees Democrats gaining anywhere from two to six seats, while traders lean toward a Democratic majority. But to take control, Democrats need to gain at least four Senate seats overall, meaning they'll have to win Republican-held seats without losing too many of their own.

Race-by-Race 2026 Midterm Predictions: Polls vs. Markets

So, how do the polls and prediction markets compare when we look at individual races? Here's where things stand in seven Senate contests and Nevada's governor race, using RealClearPolling averages, October 15, 2026 prices from Polymarket US and the latest Cook Political Report ratings.

Market prices are rounded implied probabilities, while polling percentages measure voter support. Cook's ratings describe how competitive a race is without assigning a specific probability of winning.

*Nevada is included as a governor's race because neither of its U.S. Senate seats is up for election in 2026. Those seats are next up in 2028 and 2030.

Alaska Senate: Former Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola is challenging Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, and she holds a narrow lead in the polls. Traders give her a stronger advantage, although Cook still rates the race Toss Up. Alaska also uses ranked-choice voting, which is something to keep in mind when looking at the possible result.

Georgia Senate: Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff is running for reelection against Republican Mike Collins. Ossoff has one of the biggest polling leads among the races we're following, and traders strongly favor him as well. Cook rates the contest “Likely Democratic.”

Iowa Senate: Democrat Josh Turek and Republican Ashley Hinson are competing for an open Senate seat currently held by Republicans. The polling average gives Turek a slight lead, but Polymarket US favors Hinson. Cook, on the other hand, rates the race Toss Up.

Maine Senate: Democratic challenger Troy Jackson is running against Republican Sen. Susan Collins. Jackson has a small lead in the polls, and traders also favor him, though by a relatively narrow margin. Cook still considers the race a Toss Up.

Michigan Senate: Democrat Abdul El-Sayed is running against Republican Mike Rogers for a seat currently held by Democrats. El-Sayed is ahead in the polls, and traders on Polymarket US favor him too. Cook, however, still considers the race a Toss Up, so either candidate could win.

Ohio Senate: Former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is running against Republican Jon Husted in a special election for the seat JD Vance left when he became vice president. Husted was appointed to replace Vance, but now faces voters in November. Brown leads in recent polling, and traders favor him too, although Cook still rates the race Toss Up.

Texas Senate: Democrat James Talarico is running against Republican Ken Paxton for an open Republican-held seat. Talarico holds a modest polling lead, while traders give him a stronger advantage. Cook continues to rate the race Toss Up.

Nevada Governor: Democratic Attorney General Aaron Ford is challenging Republican Gov. Joe Lombardo. The polling average has them tied at 42% each, while Polymarket US gives Ford a slight edge. That average includes only two polls, though, and Cook still rates the contest Toss Up.

Where 2026 Midterm Predictions and the Polls Disagree Most

A candidate leading in the polls doesn't necessarily have the same percentage chance of winning. To get a better sense of where predictions differ, we're comparing win probabilities from Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ) with market prices from Polymarket US.

Here are four races where the gaps stand out, based on October 15, 2026 figures:

The gaps show differences in win probabilities, measured in percentage points. DDHQ uses polling, fundraising, political trends and prediction market data in its forecasts, so the two sources aren't entirely independent.

Alaska Senate: Peltola has already shown she can win statewide in Alaska, which could explain some of the confidence we're seeing from traders. Her fundraising may also be helping. Still, Sullivan has the advantage of being the incumbent, and Alaska has historically voted Republican in federal elections. Our read is that DDHQ may be giving those factors more weight, although we can't know exactly what's driving the difference.

Iowa Senate: According to DDHQ's June 30 figures, Hinson has raised approximately $23 million compared with Turek's $6.3 million. That's a big fundraising gap, and it could give Hinson more resources to work with as Election Day approaches. But the polls remain close, so fundraising alone doesn't explain everything. Traders may be more confident that Hinson's financial advantage and Iowa's Republican lean will help her win.

Texas Senate: Talarico has raised approximately $68.6 million compared with Paxton's $9.3 million, according to DDHQ's June 30 figures. That's a considerable advantage, especially for a Democrat running in a state that hasn't elected one to the Senate since 1988. Traders may see his fundraising as a sign that he can overcome that history, while DDHQ's narrower forecast could reflect more caution about how difficult that would be.

Ohio Senate: Brown won three Senate elections before losing his reelection bid in 2024, so there's a lot of history to consider here. He's shown he can win statewide, but his most recent loss also shows how challenging Ohio has become for Democrats. The difference between DDHQ and Polymarket US may come down to how much weight each gives his earlier success compared with that more recent result.

Why Political Predictions From Markets and Polls Diverge

Polls show where voter support stands, but traders also think about things like fundraising, past election results and a state's voting history when pricing a candidate's chances. They might weigh those factors differently, which could explain why a close race in the polls doesn't always look as close in prediction markets.

There's also timing. Prediction markets can react to campaign news before it shows up in polling averages, which can be useful in races where fresh polls are hard to come by. But quick reactions can also go too far. When trading is limited, even a small order can move prices. Large positions, partisan trading or an overreaction to a single headline can make a race look more or less competitive than it really is.

And when it comes to accuracy, there's no clear winner. In a 2008 study published in Public Opinion Quarterly, Robert Erikson and Christopher Wlezien found that forecasts based on adjusted polls performed better than the election markets they examined, using US presidential election data from 1988 to 2004.

Today's CFTC-regulated US election markets also have a shorter track record, making broader conclusions difficult. Plus, traders usually rely on polls themselves, so if those polls are wrong, market prices could be off too.

Keep reading: How Fast Do Political Prediction Markets React to Major Campaign News.

Donald Trump’s Second Term and the Midterm Ballot

Midterms usually serve as a test of the sitting president, and history hasn't been particularly kind to the president's party.

According to the American Presidency Project, the president's party lost an average of 27 House seats in midterms from 1934 through 2022. Republicans lost 41 seats during Trump's first term in 2018, while Democrats lost nine under Joe Biden in 2022.

Trump's approval ratings could play a part this time around, too. RealClearPolling's average through October 13 puts him at 38.6% approval and 59.3% disapproval. Historically, presidents with lower approval ratings have tended to see their parties lose more House seats. Voters unhappy with the president may also be less inclined to support candidates from his party, even when he isn't on the ballot.

Forecasters take that history into account, and traders may be doing the same, but it only tells us so much about the Senate, where the candidates and states involved can make a bigger difference.

Tracking 2026 Midterm Predictions Through Election Day

A lot can still change before November 3, from new polls and debates to changes in race ratings and market prices. We'll keep track of those developments here and, when the data allows, look at whether the polls or prediction markets reacted first.

As new polls and market data become available, we'll update the log with any confirmed changes and how much each signal moved. We'll also keep polling changes separate from forecaster rating updates, since they don't always happen at the same time.

And, once the election results are final, we'll look back at the races we've tracked to see how closely the polls, forecasts and prediction market prices matched the actual outcomes.

Trade the 2026 Midterms on Kalshi and Polymarket

You can also follow the midterms through election contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket US, the two CFTC-regulated platforms for political trading we've been tracking. Both offer markets covering congressional control and individual races.

Trading is available to eligible adults 18 and older, subject to platform rules and location restrictions. Neither platform currently permits election-contract trading in Nevada.

• Kalshi: Use the Kalshi promo code ACTION55 to Trade $25, Get $55!
• Polymarket: Use the Polymarket promo code ACTION to Deposit $10, Get a $25 Trading Bonus!

Trading event contracts involves a real risk of losing money, and market prices don't guarantee any particular result. Check the contract rules and availability before trading.

2026 Midterm Predictions FAQs

Are prediction markets more accurate than midterm polls?

Sometimes, but neither has consistently come out ahead. A 2009 study by David Rothschild found that adjusted market forecasts performed better in uncertain 2008 races, while earlier research by Erikson and Wlezien found better results from adjusted polls. With today's CFTC-regulated US election markets still relatively new, it's worth following both.

Is it legal to trade on the 2026 midterm elections?

Yes, eligible users can trade permitted election contracts on CFTC-regulated platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket US. A 2024 federal court ruling allowed Kalshi to offer congressional-control contracts, although legal disputes, platform rules and location restrictions can still affect where trading is available.

What does a 70-cent contract mean in 2026 midterm predictions?

A Yes contract trading at 70 cents suggests traders see roughly a 70% chance of that outcome happening. If they're right, the contract usually pays $1 per share at settlement, before applicable fees; if they're wrong, it pays $0. That still leaves about a 30% chance of the outcome not happening, so it's far from a guarantee.

Can the polls and the markets both be wrong?

Yes, and they can even be wrong about the same race. Traders usually use polling data to make decisions, so if several polls overestimate or underestimate a candidate's chances, market prices could reflect those same mistakes.

When do midterm election markets settle?

It depends on the contract, and some may not settle until days or even longer after Election Day, especially if there's a close race or recount. Kalshi's Senate-control market allows early resolution based on a consensus of media projections, while Polymarket US's comparable market uses information from state election authorities and the US Senate. Check the rules on each market page for the exact settlement conditions.

Do prediction markets influence the midterm elections themselves?

They can shape election coverage and how people view a candidate's chances, but there's no established evidence that trading changes election results. There are concerns about manipulation, though: in February 2026, the CFTC described a case where Kalshi fined a candidate and suspended him for five years after he traded on his own race. Both Kalshi and Polymarket US have rules against improper trading and say they monitor for violations.

Sources

• Polymarket US: House Control, Senate Control and individual Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, Texas and Nevada markets.
• Kalshi: House Control and Senate Control.
• RealClearPolling: Donald Trump Presidential Approval Rating.
• American Presidency Project: Seats in Congress Gained or Lost by the President's Party in Midterm Elections.
• Public Opinion Quarterly: Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors? (Erikson and Wlezien, 2008).
• Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ): 2026 Senate election forecasts for Alaska, Iowa, Texas and Ohio.
• Cook Political Report: 2026 House Race Ratings (October 9) and 2026 Senate Race Ratings (October 6).