Florida Senate Race 2026 polls have been tightening down the stretch, but the Moody vs Nixon odds on Polymarket and Kalshi still treat Ashley Moody as close to a lock.
The Florida Senate election odds on both exchanges have Moody above 90% to hold the seat she inherited from Marco Rubio.
That gap between the closer public polling and the Florida Senate Kalshi and Florida Senate Polymarket markets is itself the story heading into November 3.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Ashley Moody | YES (91¢) | $109.89 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Angie Nixon | YES (10¢) | $941.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Ashley Moody | YES (91¢) | $109.19 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Angie Nixon | YES (9.4¢) | $1012.44 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Florida Senate odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
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Florida Senate Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket prices this race as two "Yes" or "No" event contracts, one for each nominee, running from 1¢ to 99¢ in direct proportion to implied probability.
A "Yes" share on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins the Florida Senate special election on November 3 and $0 if they lose, with the seat covering the remainder of Marco Rubio's term through January 2029.
Ashley Moody (YES 91¢ / NO 10¢)
Moody is sitting on roughly $11.3 million raised through her primary, a double-digit fundraising edge that's let her campaign dominate the airwaves statewide.
Florida hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since 2012, and traders are pricing that structural lean heavily into this contract even as Nixon generates real attention on the trail.
Angie Nixon (YES 10¢ / NO 91¢)
Nixon pulled off an upset primary win over a far better-funded opponent, and she's kept the pressure on Moody over a grand jury report tying the senator to a $10 million Hope Florida Medicaid settlement controversy.
The market's long-shot price on Nixon suggests traders see that storyline as a headline generator rather than a vote mover in a state this red.
Florida Senate Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi runs the same two-sided structure on this race, with each candidate's "Yes" contract trading in cents that map directly to win probability.
The contract settles once Florida certifies a winner of the November 3 special election for the balance of Rubio's term.
Ashley Moody (YES 91¢ / NO 9.2¢)
Kalshi traders have Moody priced almost identically to Polymarket, reflecting the same registration-gap and fundraising advantages carrying her through the general election.
Moody has also declined to debate Nixon, a move her campaign is betting costs her little given the state's current partisan lean.
Angie Nixon (YES 9.4¢ / NO 91¢)
Nixon, a democratic socialist by her own framing, has leaned into the Hope Florida controversy and Moody's debate refusal as her closing argument.
Kalshi's board shows traders giving that message only a modest chance of flipping enough votes to make the race competitive on election night.
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How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Moody vs Nixon Senate Race
Polymarket and Kalshi are essentially in lockstep on this one, both putting Moody at YES 91¢ and Nixon in single digits on both boards.
The only real gap sits on Nixon's contract, where Kalshi has her a touch lower at YES 9.4¢ against Polymarket's YES 10¢, a difference too small to read as a meaningful signal given each platform's liquidity.
What's more notable is how far both exchanges have pulled away from the public polling, where surveys from Florida Politics/St. Pete Polls and an independent poll cited by CNN's Harry Enten still show a single-digit race, even as Moody's internal numbers and a recent Mason-Dixon survey put her comfortably ahead.
That split between a tight public polling average and a near-lock prediction market price implies traders are weighting Florida's structural Republican lean and Moody's resource advantage more heavily than any one poll.
Florida Senate Price Analysis – Market Price Influencers
Both Florida Senate Kalshi and Florida Senate Polymarket prices have drifted further toward Moody since Nixon's primary win in August, even as her favorability numbers held up and she kept generating earned media.
The structural case for Moody hasn't changed: Florida hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 2012, her campaign has a lopsided financial edge, and the state's voter registration gap keeps widening in Republicans' favor.
The Hope Florida Medicaid controversy and Moody's refusal to debate have generated real headlines without visibly moving either board, suggesting traders see them as more useful to cable news than to Nixon's path to turnout in a statewide race.
The one thing that could reprice this board before November 3 is a sharp swing in one of the closer public polls, like the Florida Politics/St. Pete Polls survey showing a 2-point race, translating into visible movement in early vote or mail ballot data.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Ashley Moody | YES (91¢) | $109.89 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Angie Nixon | YES (10¢) | $941.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Ashley Moody | YES (91¢) | $109.19 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Angie Nixon | YES (9.4¢) | $1012.44 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Florida Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Florida Senate: Final Thoughts
The Florida Senate election odds look much more like a lock than the single-digit polling average would suggest, with both Polymarket and Kalshi backing Moody at roughly 9 to 1.
Nixon's fundraising upset and the Hope Florida headlines have kept this Florida Senate race 2026 polls story alive in the news cycle without yet moving either board.
Barring a late shift in turnout or a fresh scandal, the smart money has this one settled well before November 3.
Florida Senate Race FAQs
What do Florida Senate Race 2026 polls show in the Moody vs Nixon matchup?
Public polling has been mixed: a Mason-Dixon survey had Moody up 50% to 40%, while a Florida Politics/St. Pete Polls survey and another independent poll showed the race within a few points, 47% to 45% and 45.2% to 44.8%.
Where can I find the latest Florida Senate Election Odds?
Polymarket and Kalshi both offer live, tradable Florida Senate election odds that update continuously as news and polling shift, unlike a static poll average.
What do Florida Senate Kalshi odds show?
As of this writing, Kalshi has Ashley Moody around 91% to win and Angie Nixon around 9%, in line with Polymarket's pricing on the same race.
What do Florida Senate Polymarket odds show?
Polymarket mirrors Kalshi closely here, with Moody priced at 91% and Nixon at 10% to win the special election.
How does a Florida Senate prediction market contract work?
Each candidate has a "Yes" and "No" contract priced from 1¢ to 99¢, and a "Yes" share pays out $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
When will the Florida Senate special election be decided?
Florida voters go to the polls on November 3, 2026, and the winner will serve the remainder of Marco Rubio's term through January 2029.
How do I trade the Florida Senate race on Polymarket or Kalshi?
Sign up on either exchange, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" contract on the candidate you expect to win, following the trading guides linked above.
