The AL East race is tightening by the day, and Thursday's slate gives traders two fresh looks at where the division stands.
Tampa Bay hosts Toronto in the finale of a three-game set, while Baltimore tries to avoid a sweep at home against New York. Both series carry real playoff weight, and Kalshi has full event contract boards up for each game, along with the current Kalshi promo code: ACTION.
Rays vs Blue Jays – Best MLB Player Props Today
Tampa Bay has been the class of the American League all year and enters this finale looking to close out the series after splitting the first two games.
Toronto has been the hottest team in baseball over the last few weeks, climbing back into wild card contention even while playing without Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who remains out on the concussion injured list.
Shane Bieber gets the ball for the Blue Jays, opposite Ian Seymour for the Rays, in a matchup that carries real AL East odds implications given how far back Toronto has clawed.
Kalshi Money Line, Spread, and Total
- Tampa Bay Rays (60%, Yes 61¢ / No 40¢): The Rays are favored at home behind their AL-best record and a lineup that has produced all season.
- Toronto Blue Jays (40%, Yes 40¢ / No 61¢): Toronto's price still reflects underdog status on the road, even with the club playing its best baseball of the year.
- Tampa Bay wins by over 1.5 runs (42%, Yes 42¢ / No 59¢): The market isn't pricing in a blowout, a fair read given how competitive this season series has been.
- Over 7.5 runs scored (46%, Yes 47¢ / No 54¢): A slight lean toward the under, consistent with two pitching staffs that have each shown flashes of missing bats.
- Tampa Bay over 3.5 runs scored (57%, Yes 57¢ / No 44¢): The Rays offense carries the higher team total, in line with their edge in run production this season.
- Toronto over 3.5 runs scored (44%, Yes 44¢ / No 57¢): Toronto's team total sits lower, though its recent surge has come with more consistent scoring than that price alone suggests.
Sign up with Kalshi promo code ACTION and you'll be able to Trade $25, Get $25!
Home Run Props: Rays vs Blue Jays
- Junior Caminero (1+ HR: 25¢): Caminero's power leads this board comfortably, and it lines up with a Rays lineup that has hit for damage all year.
- George Springer (1+ HR: 15¢): Springer sits atop the Toronto side of the board, a fair reflection of his pull-heavy swing at a hitter-friendly park in Tropicana Field.
- Kazuma Okamoto (1+ HR: 15¢): Okamoto's price ticked down but still ranks near the top for Toronto, keeping him in play as a middle-of-the-order threat.
- Jonathan Aranda (1+ HR: 13¢): Aranda's contract moved up slightly, a small but notable bump given Tampa Bay's depth in the middle of the order.
- Cedric Mullins (1+ HR: 13¢): Mullins rounds out the Rays' more affordable power looks on this board.
- Ernie Clement (1+ HR: 8¢): Clement's contract line is modest, in line with a profile built more around contact than raw power.
- Jonny DeLuca (1+ HR: 9¢) and Jorge Mateo (1+ HR: 9¢): Both sit in the same tier, reasonable value plays for traders looking beyond the top of the order.
- Yandy Diaz (1+ HR: 11¢), Charles McAdoo (1+ HR: 11¢), Andrés Giménez (1+ HR: 6¢), Myles Straw (1+ HR: 6¢), Richie Palacios (1+ HR: 6¢), Nathan Lukes (1+ HR: 5¢), Nick Fortes (1+ HR: 7¢), and Chandler Simpson (1+ HR: 2¢): These round out the rest of the board, priced roughly in line with each hitter's power profile this season.
Hit Props: Rays vs Blue Jays
- Chandler Simpson (1+ Hit: 72¢): Simpson's contact-oriented approach makes him the most likely hitter on the board to reach base at least once.
- Junior Caminero (1+ Hit: 69¢): Caminero's price reflects a hitter who does damage from multiple angles, not just over the fence.
- Yandy Diaz (1+ Hit: 70¢): Diaz remains one of the steadier bats in this lineup, and the price backs that up.
- Jonathan Aranda (1+ Hit: 66¢): Aranda's hit prop trades well above a coin flip, consistent with a bat that has been productive most of the season.
- Ernie Clement (1+ Hit: 63¢) and Alejandro Kirk (1+ Hit: 63¢): Kirk in particular has been hot lately, extending his hitting streak in the series opener.
- George Springer (1+ Hit: 61¢) and Jonny DeLuca (1+ Hit: 61¢): Both sit right around the same number, a reasonable reflection of everyday regulars in a lineup spot.
- Nick Fortes (1+ Hit: 55¢), Kazuma Okamoto (1+ Hit: 55¢), and Charles McAdoo (1+ Hit: 55¢): A cluster of contracts trading close to a coin flip.
- Andrés Giménez (1+ Hit: 58¢), Cedric Mullins (1+ Hit: 56¢), Nathan Lukes (1+ Hit: 54¢), Myles Straw (1+ Hit: 51¢), Richie Palacios (1+ Hit: 52¢), and Jorge Mateo (1+ Hit: 53¢): All trading close to even money, which tracks with the depth of both lineups.
Strikeout Props: Rays vs Blue Jays
The strikeout board for this game currently shows only the two starting pitchers priced, so this section is shorter than the hit and home run boards above.
- Ian Seymour (5+ Strikeouts: 64¢): Seymour's price reflects a Rays rotation piece who has generated swings and misses at a healthy clip this season.
- Shane Bieber (4+ Strikeouts: 52¢): Bieber's contract sits close to a coin flip, a fair number for a veteran working back into form.
Yankees vs Orioles – Best MLB Player Props Today
New York has already taken the first two games of this series and can complete a sweep at Camden Yards behind Gerrit Cole, who has looked like his old self since returning from Tommy John surgery.
Baltimore, which has dropped three straight, gets a boost with catcher Samuel Basallo back off the injured list, but still has to solve Cole while trying to avoid the sweep.
Kyle Bradish takes the mound for the Orioles in a start with plenty riding on it for a Baltimore club still hanging around the AL East odds picture.
Kalshi Money Line, Spread, and Total
- New York Yankees (53%, Yes 52¢ / No 49¢): New York is a modest favorite on the road, in line with Cole's recent form and the Yankees taking the first two games of the series.
- Baltimore Orioles (47%, Yes 48¢ / No 53¢): The Orioles' price has ticked up slightly, a small nod to their home park and the return of Basallo to the lineup.
- New York Yankees win by over 1.5 runs (40%, Yes 40¢ / No 61¢): The market isn't leaning toward a blowout, even with the Yankees favored to win the game outright.
- Over 7.5 runs scored (51%, Yes 51¢ / No 50¢): This one is about as even as it gets, reflecting two pitchers who have each trimmed their earned run averages lately.
- Baltimore over 3.5 runs scored (47%, Yes 48¢ / No 53¢): Baltimore's team total sits just under a coin flip, fair given Bradish's control issues could put more runners on base against a patient Yankees lineup.
- New York Yankees over 3.5 runs scored (59%, Yes 56¢ / No 46¢): New York carries the stronger team total, consistent with an offense that has drawn walks at one of the best clips in baseball this season.
Only two players currently have active home run and hit contracts on this board, so those two sections below are shorter than usual, though the boards typically expand closer to first pitch.
Home Run Props: Yankees vs Orioles
- Pete Alonso (1+ HR: 21¢): Alonso's price ticked down slightly but still leads this board, in line with a hitter riding an 11-game hitting streak that includes six home runs.
- Gunnar Henderson (1+ HR: 14¢): Henderson's contract also moved down a touch, though he remains Baltimore's clearest source of over-the-fence power on this card.
Hit Props: Yankees vs Orioles
- Pete Alonso (1+ Hit: 67¢): Alonso's price came down slightly but still sits well above a coin flip, consistent with his current hot stretch at the plate.
- Gunnar Henderson (1+ Hit: 62¢): Henderson's hit prop trades comfortably in his favor, even in a season where his average has been up and down.
Strikeout Props: Yankees vs Orioles
- Kyle Bradish (6+ Strikeouts: 54¢): Bradish's price moved up, a reasonable bump given he's punched out at least four hitters in five of his last seven starts.
- Gerrit Cole (7+ Strikeouts: 51¢): Cole's contract also climbed, tracking with a run of starts in which he's struck out at least five hitters eleven times in a row.
Both games above are part of a much larger Kalshi board on any given night. Action Network's prediction markets hub tracks the rest of the MLB slate, along with football, basketball, and entertainment markets, if you want to see what else is trading beyond these two matchups.
Use Kalshi Promo Code "ACTION" to Trade AL East Odds
Ready to take a position on either game? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes.
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Monitor the Money Line and player prop tabs on Kalshi to stay ahead of live order book movements as first pitch approaches for both games.
Don't forget to use promo code ACTION when signing up to Trade $25, Get $25!
Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and do not guarantee future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.
AL East Odds: Final Thoughts
All four teams on today's board sit inside the same crowded division, which is exactly what makes the current MLB AL East odds so interesting to trade.
Tampa Bay's contracts reflect a team that has separated itself from the pack, while Toronto's pricing captures a club clawing back into the wild card picture in real time.
In Baltimore, New York's favorite status says as much about Gerrit Cole's return to form as it does about an Orioles team trying to avoid a sweep while still within shouting distance of the field.
If you want more background on how these contracts settle before you trade either game, Action Network's guide to prediction market apps is a good starting point.
Kalshi Promo Code FAQs
What is the current Kalshi promo code?
The current Kalshi promo code is ACTION, which unlocks a bonus for new traders who sign up and fund an account.
Who is favored in Rays vs Blue Jays today?
Tampa Bay is favored at 60% to win, with Toronto priced as the underdog at 40% on the road.
Who is favored in Yankees vs Orioles today?
New York is a modest favorite at 53%, with Baltimore priced at 47% at home.
What is the most notable player prop on either board?
Junior Caminero's home run contract leads the Rays vs Blue Jays board at 25%, while Pete Alonso's home run contract leads the Yankees vs Orioles board at 21%, both reflecting hitters currently swinging hot bats.
How do Kalshi event contracts work?
Each Kalshi contract represents a yes or no outcome tied to a specific game result, such as a team winning or a player recording a hit. Prices are quoted in cents, and each cent roughly corresponds to the market's implied probability of that outcome occurring.
Are there more games available on Kalshi tonight?
Yes, both Rays vs Blue Jays and Yankees vs Orioles are just two games on a much larger MLB board that Kalshi runs every night, alongside markets for other sports and entertainment topics.
Why do some player props only show one or two names right now?
Kalshi gradually adds contracts to a game's board as first pitch approaches, so a smaller number of active player props earlier in the day is normal and typically expands closer to game time.
How do I use the Kalshi promo code ACTION?
Sign up for a Kalshi account, enter the promo code ACTION during registration or funding, and complete the deposit requirement to unlock the current new-user bonus.
When do these markets resolve?
Money Line, Spread, and Total contracts resolve at the conclusion of each game based on the final score, while player prop contracts resolve based on that player's individual statistical outcome in the game.
