The Falcons (0-2) and Packers (1-1) meet tonight on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is scheduled for 8:15 p.m. ET from Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. TNF will stream live on Prime Video.
Falcons vs Packers odds have the Packers as 4.5-point favorites on the spread; the over/under is 43.5 (-104o / -118u). The Packers are -250 favorites on the moneyline and the Falcons are +205 underdogs.
Below you can find my TNF betting preview, which includes my three Falcons vs Packers predictions. You can also find my two player props (for Bijan Robinson and Xavier Watts), betting trends, weather forecast, and inactives.
Falcons vs Packers Predictions, Picks
- Falcons vs Packers pick: Falcons Team Total Over 19.5 (-105)
My Falcons vs Packers best bet is on Atlanta to go over its team total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Falcons vs Packers Odds
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -104 | 43.5 -104o / -118u | +205 |
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -118 | 43.5 -104o / -118u | -250 |
Falcons vs Packers TNF Preview: Penix the X-Factor
When the Falcons Have the Ball
The Falcons’ QB situation has been the story of their season so far, with both Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. missing the first two games. Instead of rolling with undrafted free agent Jack Strand, Stefanski opted for Cooper Rush, who was historically bad in his two starts.
Rush posted a putrid -0.79 EPA per dropback, which was easily the worst mark among qualified QBs. Atlanta also failed to reach the red zone in either game, something an NFL offense hadn’t done through two games since the Rams in 2008. Needless to say, Atlanta's offense has been a disaster.
That should change tonight with Penix expected to make his season debut after suffering a torn left ACL last season. I still view Penix as a below-average QB after he ranked 22nd of 33 qualified passers in EPA/dropback last season, and there could obviously be some rust in his first live action since the injury.
But Penix is a massive upgrade over Rush, and this Falcons offense has way too much talent — with Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts — to remain this bad. I’m expecting a pretty significant bounce back, potentially more than the market is accounting for.
Green Bay’s defense has been middle of the Pack, pun absolutely intended, ranking 16th in DVOA through two games. There’s some context there since they opened against Carson Wentz and then faced the Jets in a rain-soaked game.
The Packers are also not at full strength. Micah Parsons remains on PUP, while Javon Hargrave and Edgerrin Cooper are both banged up and considered questionable.
Short weeks are always tricky with injuries because someone who might be ready by Sunday doesn’t necessarily have enough time to get there by Thursday. If either Hargrave or Cooper sits, that would be another boost for a Falcons rushing attack that will be leaned on despite Penix's return.
When the Packers Have the Ball
Green Bay’s offense has gotten off to a slow start — the running game, in particular, has been brutal at just 3.3 yards per carry.
The offensive line deserves some blame, but the running backs haven’t exactly helped. According to Next Gen Stats, the Packers have averaged 4.9 expected yards per attempt, which factors in blocker and defender positioning.
I think Packers head coach Matt LaFleur is one of the most underrated play designers in football, and the tracking data suggests he’s creating more room than the raw rushing numbers indicate. The backs simply haven’t taken advantage.
They clearly miss Josh Jacobs, who remains on the commissioner’s exempt list. Newly acquired Kaleb Johnson started mixing in more late last week and helped set up the game-winning FG in overtime, so I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more of him tonight in what could be Green Bay’s most run-friendly game script yet.
Speaking of that game-winning FG, rookie kicker Trey Smack has had my attention since preseason. He makes 55+ yarders look almost as easy as chip shots, and seemingly everything comes off his foot dead center with plenty of distance to spare.
LaFleur hasn’t always shown much faith in his kickers from long range, but I think Smack gives him a reason to be more aggressive. That quietly raises Green Bay’s scoring ceiling.
The Packers' passing game will likely be without Jayden Reed, who is considered doubtful, but the Christian Watson/Matthew Golden duo has been lethal. More targets going their way only increases Green Bay’s chances of creating explosive plays.
Tucker Kraft is obviously one of the better receiving TEs in football, but the OL injuries got so bad last week that Green Bay apparently considered using him as a true offensive lineman. The coaching staff should have had enough time to come up with a better solution, but that’s absolutely something I’ll be monitoring.
The Falcons defense has been one of the bigger surprises this season. They rank seventh in pressure rate despite missing their top two EDGE rushers (Jalon Walker and James Pearce) while blitzing at the fourth-lowest rate in the league. Gervon Dexter and Za’Darius Smith have played really well, although I’m skeptical they can maintain this level of pressure given the personnel and blitz rate.
Still, Green Bay’s depleted offensive line gives them a chance to keep it going for another week.
That pressure is especially important against Jordan Love, who ranked first in EPA/dropback against the blitz last year but dropped to fourth when defenses didn’t blitz.
More importantly, he ranked first with a clean pocket and fell to 13th when pressured. Atlanta doesn’t need to send extra bodies if the front can continue winning on its own.
Thursday Night Football Pick
One of the trickiest parts of capping this game is the Falcons' pass rush. They’ve exceeded my expectations without Walker or Pearce, and while rarely blitzing. If they can continue generating pressure against this depleted Green Bay OL and disrupt Love, I think Atlanta has a real chance to keep this game competitive.
At the same time, I have too much respect for LaFleur as a play designer, Love as a QB, and Watson/Golden as explosive weapons to feel great fading Green Bay outright. This could easily be a game where the Packers have an ugly success rate but erase it with a couple of splash plays.
I think the cleanest edge is simply understanding how unbelievably bad Cooper Rush was and how much better the Falcons offense should be with Penix.
Penix doesn’t have to suddenly become an elite QB — he just has to be a functional one. With Robinson, London, and Pitts around Penix, that alone should raise Atlanta’s offensive floor considerably.
That’s why I’d rather isolate the Falcons Team Total Over 19.5 than take Falcons +5.5 or the full-game Over 43, even though those are the sides where I’d lean. Taking the team total lets me attack the part of the game where I think the market may be underreacting without introducing all the variance surrounding Green Bay’s offense.
This is also why I love betting player props in the first place. I’m constantly trying to isolate one variable I think the market is mispricing rather than being forced to have an opinion on every moving piece. This is the game-level version of that.
There’s also a sneaky game-flow angle here. If Green Bay’s run game continues to struggle and the Packers rely more on explosive plays through the air, that can shorten drives and lower their time of possession. Meanwhile, Atlanta’s rushing attack gives them a chance to control the clock and sustain possessions.
Getting over 19.5 gives us access to the key number of 20. That’s the cleanest way I want to attack this game.
Pick: Falcons Team Total Over 19.5 (-105)
Falcons vs Packers Props: Bijan Robinson
No, my account hasn’t been hacked.
This is 100% Sean giving out a “he good, me bet over” caveman prop on an obvious stud the market already knows is good. Nobody is outsmarting the books by discovering Bijan Robinson — but I do think this is a sneaky buy-low spot.
I've already noted how historically bad Atlanta’s offense has been through two games. Michael Penix Jr. isn’t suddenly Tom Brady, but even a rusty, less-than-100% Penix should be a massive upgrade over Cooper Rush. It’s also worth noting Robinson has averaged 5.15 yards per carry with Penix, the running back's highest mark with any of the five QBs he’s played with.
The Falcons were insanely run heavy with Rush at -14% pass rate over expected. I still expect them to lean run-heavy with Penix making his first start back — just not to that extreme. I’m around -4.5% PROE here.
The Falcons have also trailed on a league-high 86% of their snaps, so a more competitive game should help preserve rushing volume even if the offense becomes a little more balanced overall.
The bigger thing is Robinson's share of that volume. A lot of Brian Robinson’s work has come later in games when Atlanta was already buried. If this stays competitive, I’d expect more of those carries to stay with Robinson.
Atlanta is 0-2 and pretty desperate for a win, which is another reason I’d expect them to lean on its best player.
Green Bay’s run game has been bad, Atlanta’s defense has quietly played well, and the Packers’ OL issues could help the Falcons control time of possession. This is really a bet on better game environment, more sustainable volume and Robinson getting back to his normal efficiency with a functional offense around him.
In a way, the entire Falcons offense is a buy low after two games of Cooper Rush. I just think a lot of that positive regression flows through Robinson.
I have Robinson closer to 83.5 rushing yards with around a 59% chance to clear 77.5.
Tackle props are still a pretty niche market and the numbers can move quickly, but they’re one of my favorite markets to handicap because much of the edge comes from projecting opportunity rather than simply whether a defender is “good” or “bad” at tackling.
With Watts, I have the Falcons facing around 4.5 fewer completions than they’ve averaged through two games and roughly four more run plays. That actually hurts him a bit because he’s been involved on 14% of completions but only 11.7% of runs.
Green Bay has been brutal on the ground at just 3.3 yards per carry, and Watts’ average depth of tackle on runs is around nine yards downfield, so he tends to benefit more when backs are actually getting into the secondary.
I think Atlanta may keep him deeper more often to protect against Christian Watson and Matthew Golden creating explosive plays. Watts will still mix in on some of those, but 6.5 is a high number if you need explosives to feed him.
The other factor is time of possession.
I think Atlanta has a real chance to control the ball here, which could leave Watts on the sideline for more than half the game. He’s averaged around 5.4 tackles through his first 19 career games and has reached 7+ just 26% of the time.
I have him closer to 5.7 tackles with around a 64% chance to stay under 6.5.
Falcons vs Packers Betting & Team Trends
Falcons Trends
- Kevin Stefanski is 5-0 straight up and 4-1 against the spread (ATS) on Thursdays in his career as a head coach, covering four in a row.
- The Falcons are the first team since the 2008 Rams to have run no red-zone plays over the first two games of the season.
Packers Trends
- Over the last three seasons, Jordan Love is 12-21-1 ATS as a starting QB (least profitable QB in the NFL, min. 20 starts). That's the worst ATS win percentage of 26 QBs.
- Love has failed to cover 5 straight games dating back to last season. That is the longest such streak for a Packers QB since Brett Favre (2005).
Trends from Evan Abrams' NFL Betting Primer
Thursday Night Football Viewing Info: Channel, Start Time, Streaming
| Location: | Lambeau Field |
| Date: | Thursday, Sept. 24 |
| Time: | 8:15 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming Options: | Prime Video |
Falcons vs Packers Inactives & Injuries
Falcons Inactives
DE Samson Ebukam (hamstring)
QB Cooper Rush (Emergency 3rd QB)
QB Jack Strand
DB Malcolm DeWalt IV
DB Robert Longerbeam
OL Ethan Onianwa
via Falcons.com
Packers Inactives
WR Jayden Reed (neck)
OL Zach Bako-Bewele (knee)
OL Aaron Banks (knee/toe)
DT Warren Brinson (calf)
DT Anthony Campbell (ankle)
via Packers.com
