The Atlanta Falcons (0-2) and Green Bay Packers (1-1) get NFL Week 3 going on Thursday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:15 p.m. ET from Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wis. The game will stream live on Prime Video.
The Packers are favored by -5 on the spread over the Falcons, with the over/under set at 43.5 points. The Packers are -250 favorites on the moneyline, while the Falcons are +205 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Falcons vs Packers predictions for Thursday Night Football.
Falcons vs Packers Prediction
- Falcons vs Packers pick: Falcons Team Total Over 19.5 (-105)
My Falcons vs Packers best bet is on Atlanta to go over its team total. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
Falcons vs Packers Odds
| Falcons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -109 | 43.5 -108o / -111u | +205 |
| Packers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 43.5 -108o / -111u | -250 |
Falcons vs Packers Thursday Night Football Preview
When the Falcons Have the Ball
The Falcons’ QB situation has been the story of their season so far, with both Tua Tagovailoa and Michael Penix Jr. missing the first two games. Instead of rolling with undrafted free agent Jack Strand, Stefanski opted for Cooper Rush, who was historically bad in his two starts.
Rush posted a putrid -0.79 EPA per dropback, which was easily the worst mark among qualified QBs. Atlanta also failed to reach the red zone in either game, something an NFL offense hadn’t done through two games since the Rams in 2008. Needless to say, Atlanta's offense has been a disaster.
That should change tonight with Penix expected to make his season debut after suffering a torn left ACL last season. I still view Penix as a below-average QB after he ranked 22nd of 33 qualified passers in EPA/dropback last season, and there could obviously be some rust in his first live action since the injury.
But Penix is a massive upgrade over Rush, and this Falcons offense has way too much talent — with Bijan Robinson, Drake London and Kyle Pitts — to remain this bad. I’m expecting a pretty significant bounce back, potentially more than the market is accounting for.
Green Bay’s defense has been middle of the Pack, pun absolutely intended, ranking 16th in DVOA through two games. There’s some context there since they opened against Carson Wentz and then faced the Jets in a rain-soaked game.
The Packers are also not at full strength. Micah Parsons remains on PUP, while Javon Hargrave and Edgerrin Cooper are both banged up and considered questionable.
Short weeks are always tricky with injuries because someone who might be ready by Sunday doesn’t necessarily have enough time to get there by Thursday. If either Hargrave or Cooper sits, that would be another boost for a Falcons rushing attack that will be leaned on despite Penix's return.
When the Packers Have the Ball
Green Bay’s offense has gotten off to a slow start — the running game, in particular, has been brutal at just 3.3 yards per carry.
The offensive line deserves some blame, but the running backs haven’t exactly helped. According to Next Gen Stats, the Packers have averaged 4.9 expected yards per attempt, which factors in blocker and defender positioning.
I think Packers head coach Matt LaFleur is one of the most underrated play designers in football, and the tracking data suggests he’s creating more room than the raw rushing numbers indicate. The backs simply haven’t taken advantage.
They clearly miss Josh Jacobs, who remains on the commissioner’s exempt list. Newly acquired Kaleb Johnson started mixing in more late last week and helped set up the game-winning FG in overtime, so I wouldn’t be surprised if we see more of him tonight in what could be Green Bay’s most run-friendly game script yet.
Speaking of that game-winning FG, rookie kicker Trey Smack has had my attention since preseason. He makes 55+ yarders look almost as easy as chip shots, and seemingly everything comes off his foot dead center with plenty of distance to spare.
LaFleur hasn’t always shown much faith in his kickers from long range, but I think Smack gives him a reason to be more aggressive. That quietly raises Green Bay’s scoring ceiling.
The Packers' passing game will likely be without Jayden Reed, who is considered doubtful, but the Christian Watson/Matthew Golden duo has been lethal. More targets going their way only increases Green Bay’s chances of creating explosive plays.
Tucker Kraft is obviously one of the better receiving TEs in football, but the OL injuries got so bad last week that Green Bay apparently considered using him as a true offensive lineman. The coaching staff should have had enough time to come up with a better solution, but that’s absolutely something I’ll be monitoring.
The Falcons defense has been one of the bigger surprises this season. They rank seventh in pressure rate despite missing their top two EDGE rushers (Jalon Walker and James Pearce) while blitzing at the fourth-lowest rate in the league. Gervon Dexter and Za’Darius Smith have played really well, although I’m skeptical they can maintain this level of pressure given the personnel and blitz rate.
Still, Green Bay’s depleted offensive line gives them a chance to keep it going for another week.
That pressure is especially important against Jordan Love, who ranked first in EPA/dropback against the blitz last year but dropped to fourth when defenses didn’t blitz.
More importantly, he ranked first with a clean pocket and fell to 13th when pressured. Atlanta doesn’t need to send extra bodies if the front can continue winning on its own.
Falcons vs Packers Prediction, Betting Analysis
One of the trickiest parts of capping this game is the Falcons' pass rush. They’ve exceeded my expectations without Walker or Pearce and while rarely blitzing. If they can continue generating pressure against this depleted Green Bay OL and disrupt Love, I think Atlanta has a real chance to keep this game competitive.
At the same time, I have too much respect for LaFleur as a play designer, Love as a QB, and Watson/Golden as explosive weapons to feel great fading Green Bay outright. This could easily be a game where the Packers have an ugly success rate but erase it with a couple splash plays.
I think the cleanest edge is simply understanding how unbelievably bad Cooper Rush was and how much better the Falcons offense should be with Penix.
Penix doesn’t have to suddenly become an elite QB — he just has to be a functional one. With Robinson, London and Pitts around Penix, that alone should raise Atlanta’s offensive floor considerably.
That’s why I’d rather isolate the Falcons Team Total Over 19.5 than take Falcons +5.5 or the full-game Over 43, even though those are the sides where I’d lean. Taking the team total lets me attack the part of the game where I think the market may be underreacting without introducing all the variance surrounding Green Bay’s offense.
This is also why I love betting player props in the first place. I’m constantly trying to isolate one variable I think the market is mispricing rather than being forced to have an opinion on every moving piece. This is the game-level version of that.
There’s also a sneaky game-flow angle here. If Green Bay’s run game continues to struggle and the Packers rely more on explosive plays through the air, that can shorten drives and lower their time of possession. Meanwhile, Atlanta’s rushing attack gives them a chance to control the clock and sustain possessions.
Getting Over 19.5 gives us access to the key number of 20. That’s the cleanest way I want to attack this game.
Pick: Falcons Team Total Over 19.5 (-105)
Spread
As I noted above, I'd lean Falcons +5.5 if forced to pick a side for the spread, but I don't think that's the best way to approach this game given the state of Green Bay's offense.
Moneyline
I'm shying away from either side of the moneyline.
Over/Under
I'd lean over 43 for the total — but the Falcons to specifically go over their team total is the way I'm playing this game tonight.
