My MLB picks today pull every number straight from Polymarket, where contracts are traded in cents that read as an implied probability Postseason baseball has arrived in full swing, and two of the loudest rivalries in MLB share the spotlight tonight.
Here is a look at the latest MLB odds on Polymarket at time of publish. Remember that prices shift by the second as traders buy or sell on prediction market apps, so verify the price in the table below with the one on your screen.
| Game | Start (ET) | Broadcast | Favorite |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox vs. Yankees | 8:00 p.m. | NBC, Peacock | Yankees 60¢ |
| Cubs vs. Padres | 10:00 p.m. | Peacock, NBCSN | Padres 55¢ |
Polymarket is my MLB prediction market app of choice because of the new player bonus. Sign up with Polymarket promo code ACTION and deposit $10 to get $50 in bonuses credited to your account. I registered to fund my MLB picks today with the $50.
MLB Picks Today at a Glance
Four positions make up my card of MLB picks today from the Red Sox-Yankees and Cubs-Padres games today, Tuesday, Sept. 29, 2026:
| Matchup | Pick | Price | Implied Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| Red Sox vs. Yankees | Red Sox moneyline | 41¢ | 41% |
| Red Sox vs. Yankees | Under 6.5 runs | 50¢ | 50% |
| Cubs vs. Padres | Under 7.5 runs | 54¢ | 54% |
| Cubs vs. Padres | Cubs +1.5 runs | 65¢ | 65% |
Red Sox vs. Yankees Prediction: Red Sox Win YES (41¢)
The first of my MLB picks today backs the road dog in the Bronx:
- Rookie lefty Payton Tolle gets the Game 1 ball for Boston after a 3.03 ERA season with 171 strikeouts.
- Tolle owns the Yankees, posting a 0.69 ERA across 13 innings against them this year with 18 strikeouts, three walks and a .093 opponent average.
- New York answers with AL ERA leader Cam Schlittler, who finished 14-6 with a 1.95 mark and 239 strikeouts.
- The Yankees lineup ranks last in MLB with a .297 on base percentage since June 1, the date Aaron Judge first hit the injured list.
- Judge nurses a calf strain and his availability remains uncertain leading into the game this evening.
Two elite arms plus a punchless New York offense points the total down. Boston at 41¢ prices in a blowout of a gap that the pitching matchup simply does not support.
Cubs vs. Padres: Under 7.5 Total Runs YES (54¢)
The second half of my MLB picks today back a low scoring game in a rematch of last year's NL Wild Card Series:
- Michael King starts for San Diego on the back of a 3.21 ERA season as the staff ace.
- Chicago leaves its opener open, with Matthew Boyd and Kevin Gausman as the leading candidates ahead of first pitch.
- Petco Park and the evening marine layer strip runs out of games, and the Padres went 51-30 at home.
- San Diego finished under the total 69 times this season, one of the heaviest under profiles in baseball.
- Chicago leads MLB in OPS at .765 and took five of six meetings from the Padres this season.
That last point keeps me off the Padres moneyline entirely. The Cubs to cover 1.5 runs as underdogs is enticing, but I see the under as the cleanest angle to trade today.
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Follow these steps to make your new Polymarket account and net $50 in trading bonus funds to fund your MLB picks today:
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