The 13 remaining couples on Dancing with the Stars Season 35 trade viral TikTok hits for captain's hats on Tuesday, Sept. 29, when Yacht Rock Night airs live at 8 p.m. ET on ABC and Disney+. Both Kalshi and Polymarket have elimination markets open, and traders on the two exchanges have landed on the same clear favorite to leave the ballroom.
Tatyana Ali is trading at 45¢ on both platforms heading into the show, nearly double the next name on either board, even though her Week 2 score was middle of the pack.
Who's Already Left the Ballroom: Season 35 Elimination Recap
- Premiere Night 1 (Sept. 15): Conner Leavitt & Adele Zaikman, out after a salsa to "Whoomp! (There It Is)."
- Premiere Night 2 (Sept. 16): Sarah Jane Nader & Hailey Bills, eliminated after a 14/30 jive to "Sk8er Boi."
- Week 2, Viral Hits Night (Sept. 22): Giada De Laurentiis & Alan Bersten, sent home after a 12/30 salsa, with Tyler Cameron and Guillermo Rodriguez also in the bottom three.
DWTS Week 3 Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi's Dancing with the Stars market, listed under the "Episode 4" label because the two-night premiere counts as two episodes, lists one contract per remaining couple, each priced between 1¢ and 99¢. The price is the market's implied probability that couple is eliminated: a "Yes" on Tatyana Ali at 45¢ pays $1 if she goes home Tuesday night and expires worthless if she survives.
The market resolves off the live results at the end of the episode, so prices can move sharply as scores post in real time. Roughly $148,000 had traded by Tuesday midday, and here is how the board looked.
| 💃 Couple | 🏷️ Eliminated Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik | Tatyana Ali | Eliminated Yes (45¢) | $122.22 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Tyler Cameron & Sharna Burgess | Tyler Cameron | Eliminated Yes (24¢) | $316.67 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Ciara Miller & Brandon Armstrong | Ciara Miller | Eliminated Yes (16¢) | $525.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Guillermo Rodriguez & Witney Carson | Guillermo Rodriguez | Eliminated Yes (9¢) | $1,011.11 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Taylor Hanson & Britt Stewart | Taylor Hanson | Eliminated Yes (9¢) | $1,011.11 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik (45%, Yes 45¢ / No 57¢, 0 pts)
The Fresh Prince of Bel-Air star is the runaway favorite to be eliminated, and the market has been building this position for a week. Her contract sat in the 30s for most of the market's life before a jump toward the mid-40s on Sept. 27, and it has held there since.
The pricing is about her floor, not her ceiling. Ali landed in the bottom two on premiere night with a 12/30 jive, and while she rebounded to 18/30 with a foxtrot to "What Was I Made For?" in Week 2, traders clearly believe her fan vote is the softest of any couple still in the field. Tuesday brings a quickstep to Hall & Oates' "Maneater," which Ali has admitted is packed with steps, so a stumble here would confirm the market's read.
Tyler Cameron & Sharna Burgess (24%, Yes 24¢ / No 77¢, -1 pt)
Cameron was one of the final three left standing on Viral Hits Night, and his 16/30 salsa drew criticism from the judges for not featuring enough actual salsa content. That bottom-three appearance is why he sits second on the board at 24¢.
The counterargument is Bachelor Nation. Cameron has a built-in voting bloc that Ali does not, and traders have nudged his price down a point since the weekend. He dances a jive to Orleans' "Still the One" on Tuesday, a style that rewards energy over technique and should suit him better than last week's salsa.
Ciara Miller & Brandon Armstrong (16%, Yes 16¢ / No 85¢, 0 pts)
The Summer House star is the one name in the top three that scored well last week. Miller earned 18/30 for her tango to "No Broke Boys," was called safe in the first group of six, and drew praise from Carrie Ann Inaba despite a caught heel.
Her 16¢ price is a fan-vote question, not a scoring one. Reality TV contestants without a broadcast-network fan base have gone home early this season, and traders are hedging against that pattern. Miller dances a cha cha to Luther Vandross' "Never Too Much" and has teased a special appearance in the routine.
Guillermo Rodriguez & Witney Carson (9%, Yes 9¢ / No 92¢, -6 pts)
Rodriguez tied Giada De Laurentiis for the lowest score of Week 2 at 12/30 and stood alongside her in the bottom three, yet Kalshi has him at just 9¢ after a six-point drop, the largest move on the board. That gap between scoring and price is the Jimmy Kimmel Live! effect: the show's sidekick has a nightly platform and an enthusiastic fan base that kept him safe last week.
His foxtrot to "Escape (The Piña Colada Song)" is a slower style he has admitted is not his favorite. Another 12 would test how much the fan vote can absorb.
Taylor Hanson & Britt Stewart (9%, Yes 9¢ / No 92¢, -3 pts)
Hanson scored 15/30 in Week 2, tied for third-lowest, but was called safe in the first group. Traders have taken his price down three points since the weekend, reflecting confidence that the Hanson fan base will keep him clear of the bottom. His foxtrot to The Doobie Brothers' "What a Fool Believes" is a natural fit for a musician.
- Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold (2%, -1 pt): A 15/30 tango last week, but a large podcast following keeps him at 3¢ ahead of a foxtrot to Fleetwood Mac's "Everywhere."
- Jackson Olson & Emma Slater (2%, -1 pt): The Savannah Bananas star scored 18/30 and was in the first safe group; he takes on a paso doble to "Easy Lover."
- Julia Stiles & Ezra Sosa (2%, 0 pts): A 16/30 tango puts her scores in the danger zone, but traders see her name recognition carrying her through a salsa to "I Can't Go for That (No Can Do)."
- Amber Glenn & Pasha Pashkov (<1%): Tied for the top score of Week 2 at 21/30; foxtrot to Toto's "Hold the Line."
- Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach (<1%): Also 21/30 last week; foxtrot to "Just the Two of Us."
- Harry Shum Jr. & Jenna Johnson (<1%): 18/30 in Week 2 after a 21/30 premiere; jive to "You Make My Dreams (Come True)."
- Jenna Dewan & Val Chmerkovskiy (<1%): Co-leader at 21/30; samba to Toto's "Africa."
- Maura Higgins & Mark Ballas (<1%): 19/30 last week after a surprise 21/30 premiere; quickstep to "Turn Your Love Around."
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DWTS Week 3 Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's "Dancing with the Stars S35: Week 3 Elimination" market works the same way: one Yes/No contract per couple, priced in cents that map directly to implied probability, settling at $1 for the couple sent home Tuesday night. The two boards have tracked each other closely since opening on Sept. 23, and the top of the order is identical.
| 💃 Couple | 🏷️ Eliminated Yes | Price | 🤑 Profit on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik | Tatyana Ali | Eliminated Yes (45¢) | $122.22 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Tyler Cameron & Sharna Burgess | Tyler Cameron | Eliminated Yes (25¢) | $300.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Ciara Miller & Brandon Armstrong | Ciara Miller | Eliminated Yes (17¢) | $488.24 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Guillermo Rodriguez & Witney Carson | Guillermo Rodriguez | Eliminated Yes (14¢) | $614.29 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Taylor Hanson & Britt Stewart | Taylor Hanson | Eliminated Yes (11¢) | $809.09 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
Tatyana Ali & Jan Ravnik (45%, Yes 45¢ / No 59¢)
Polymarket agrees with Kalshi to the cent on the favorite. Ali's chart shows the same early volatility followed by a steady climb into the mid-40s, and the No side is slightly more expensive here at 59¢, which signals marginally less conviction that she survives.
Tyler Cameron & Sharna Burgess (25%, Yes 25¢ / No 79¢)
Cameron is a point higher on Polymarket at 25¢. Traders here are weighing his bottom-three finish last week a touch more heavily than the Bachelor Nation vote that is expected to keep him afloat.
Ciara Miller & Brandon Armstrong (17%, Yes 17¢ / No 85¢)
Miller sits at 17¢, one point above her Kalshi price. Same story on both exchanges: her 18/30 tango was fine, but her fan base is the unknown.
Guillermo Rodriguez & Witney Carson (14%, Yes 14¢ / No 89¢)
This is the widest gap between the two boards. Polymarket has Rodriguez at 14¢, five points above Kalshi, and has not chased his price down the way Kalshi traders did over the weekend. His 12/30 last week is the lowest score of any surviving couple, and Polymarket is giving that fact more weight.
Taylor Hanson & Britt Stewart (11%, Yes 11¢ / No 90¢)
Hanson is at 11¢ here versus 9¢ on Kalshi. Again, Polymarket is leaning slightly harder on last week's 15/30 and slightly less on the musician's fan base.
- Connor Wood & Rylee Arnold (4%): Double his Kalshi price after a 15/30 tango, but still safely priced ahead of his foxtrot.
- Ezra Frech & Daniella Karagach (2%): A 21/30 co-leader last week; Polymarket prices him a shade higher than Kalshi's sub-1%.
- Jackson Olson & Emma Slater (2%): An 18/30 score and an early safe call keep him in longshot territory.
- Julia Stiles & Ezra Sosa (2%): Matches Kalshi despite a 16/30 tango last week.
- Amber Glenn, Harry Shum Jr., Jenna Dewan and Maura Higgins (1% each): The four strongest scorers of the season so far, priced as near-locks to survive.
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How Kalshi and Polymarket Compare on DWTS Week 3
The two exchanges agree on the shape of the market: Ali at 45¢ on both, then Cameron, Miller, Rodriguez and Hanson in the same order. Cameron and Miller are each within a point of one another across platforms.
The divergence is in the middle of the board. Polymarket has Rodriguez at 14¢ and Hanson at 11¢, while Kalshi has both at 9¢ after sharp drops since the weekend. Polymarket is also more generous on the longshots, with Wood at 4¢ and Frech at 2¢ against sub-1% pricing on Kalshi.
The gap suggests Kalshi traders are pricing fan-vote strength more aggressively, while Polymarket is anchored closer to the raw judges' scores. A trader who believes the Kimmel audience will save Rodriguez again has a cheaper No on Polymarket at 89¢; a trader who thinks his 12/30 finally catches up with him gets a better Yes price on Kalshi at 9¢.
DWTS Week 3 Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The biggest move since both markets opened on Sept. 23 belongs to Ali. She started in the 30s, dipped briefly, then rallied above 45¢ on Sept. 27 and has stayed in that range on both exchanges. Cameron spiked toward 30¢ mid-week before settling in the mid-20s, and Miller has drifted quietly upward from the low teens.
The sharpest recent move runs the other way, at least on Kalshi. Rodriguez has shed six points to sit at 9¢, tied with Hanson, who is down three. The two lowest-scoring survivors from Week 2 are now priced at a combined 18% on Kalshi and 25% on Polymarket, while Ali, who outscored both, carries 45% on her own everywhere. Traders are pricing perceived fan-vote strength, and they have decided that a Kimmel sidekick and a '90s pop frontman have deeper voting benches than a sitcom actress.
This is a favorite-heavy board but not a locked one. Ali holds 45% of the probability, Cameron, Miller and Rodriguez split close to another half, and the remaining nine couples share the scraps. A weak "Maneater" quickstep could push Ali toward 60¢ in-show; a clean one, paired with a rough foxtrot from Rodriguez, could flip the top of the board entirely.
Judges' scores for Yacht Rock Night were not yet posted at the time of writing, so expect both order books to reprice contract by contract as each couple finishes their routine. That live window is where the sharpest movement on these markets tends to happen.
How to Trade DWTS Week 3 on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
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Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
Don't forget to use promo code ACTION when signing up to Deposit $10, Get a $50 Trading Bonus!
Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and are not a guarantee of future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.
